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Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Thinkific Labs Inc $0.72, price $1.24, upside -41.9%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Thinkific Labs Inc
THNCF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $0.7200 · Strongly overvalued (−41.9%)
✓Quality 72/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +28.7 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -0.3% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 1.8%
✓generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 17/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.6752 – $10.68 · fair‑value band $0.5000 – $0.9300 · the $1.24 price screens above the $0.7200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Thinkific Labs Inc. engages in the development, marketing, and support management of cloud-based platform in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It provides a learning commerce platform that provides courses, communities, AI and commerce. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF) currently trades at $1.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.7200, 41.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $1.52 per share, and 7 of the 18 models we run sit above the $1.24 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.3300, and 11 of the 18 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $0.5000 (bear) to $0.9300 (bull), the price of $1.24 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Thinkific Labs Inc reported revenue of $74.5M in FY2025 versus $38.1M in FY2021, a compound +18.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $85.3M · P/S ratio 0.75 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0100 · Net margin 1.8% · Return on equity −0.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.1% · Operating margin −10.1% · Revenue (TTM) $74.0M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −42%, THNCF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.5000
Fair Value $0.7200
Bull $0.9300
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$1.07
$1.45
$2.57
77
Growth DCF
$1.01
$1.52
$2.42
74
Owner Earnings
$0.5100
$0.8900
$1.55
71
All 18 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$1.07
$1.45
$2.57
77
Owner Earnings
$0.5100
$0.8900
$1.55
71
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.9600
$1.54
$2.74
67
5Y P/E Exit
$0.7200
$1.25
$1.94
67
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.9800
$1.87
$2.40
64
10Y P/E Exit
$0.8500
$1.42
$2.29
60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.1300
$0.9200
$1.29
63
Lynch FV
$0.3500
$0.5000
$0.6400
61
PEG = 1.0
$0.3500
$0.5000
$0.6400
57
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.4100
$0.5400
$0.6800
63
P/S Multiple
$0.2500
$0.3300
$0.4100
58
P/B Multiple
$0.2500
$0.3300
$0.4100
55
EV/Revenue
$0.8500
$1.16
$1.48
51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.3200
$0.4300
$0.6400
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$1.01
$1.52
$2.42
74
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.9700
$1.74
$3.19
67
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.4200
$0.3900
$0.3800
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.5000
$0.7200
$0.9300
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
72/100
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Profitability
52
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
69
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
72
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
18
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
42
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.3%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+37.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+37.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7% → −2%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.3% a year for the price and +1.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+0.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.6%
THNCF screens overvalued: fair value 42% below the price. Compare with SAP SE →
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| Shopify Inc SHOP | $144.01 | $64.36 | −55% |
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| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $330.31 | $74.36 | −77% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $261.80 | $150.01 | −43% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $239.94 | $454.04 | +89% |
| Datadog, Inc DDOG | $268.70 | $32.52 | −88% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $326.70 | $225.48 | −31% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.7200 versus a price of $1.24, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of THNCF?
Our model-based fair value for Thinkific Labs Inc is $0.7200 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.24.
What is the quality score of THNCF?
Thinkific Labs Inc has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.7200 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 18 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.5000, optimistic scenario $0.9300. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thinkific Labs Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.7200, about −42% upside versus a price of $1.24 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.5000, optimistic scenario $0.9300. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF)?
Thinkific Labs Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $74.0M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Thinkific Labs Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -4.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +28.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of THNCF use?
Our models discount Thinkific Labs Inc at 13.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.32, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Thinkific Labs Inc that is -4.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Thinkific Labs Inc grew +28.7 % a year. The price currently implies -4.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Thinkific Labs Inc (-4.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.36 %: that much free cash flow Thinkific Labs Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thinkific Labs Inc it is $0.7200 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.24. It is the blended result of 18 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Thinkific Labs Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, THNCF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.24, fair value $0.7200, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of THNCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.7200). For Thinkific Labs Inc the two are $0.5190 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thinkific Labs Inc worth?
The market values Thinkific Labs Inc at about $85.3M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.24; our models calculate a fair value of $0.7200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about THNCF?
Our models span a range for Thinkific Labs Inc: cautious scenario $0.5000, base $0.7200, optimistic $0.9300 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is THNCF from its 52-week high?
Thinkific Labs Inc trades at $1.24, about 27% below its 52-week high of $1.69 and 84% above the low of $0.6752 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.7200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thinkific Labs Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thinkific Labs Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.24, calculated fair value $0.7200 (−42%), Quality Score 72/100, from 18 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of THNCF calculated?
We run Thinkific Labs Inc through 18 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.7200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Thinkific Labs Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was $1.24. Our model-based fair value is $0.7200, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thinkific Labs Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.9300). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range ($0.5000 to $0.9300) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Thinkific Labs Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF)?
The market capitalisation of Thinkific Labs Inc is $85.3M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thinkific Labs Inc is 0.75 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF)?
Earnings per share at Thinkific Labs Inc are $−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF)?
The net margin of Thinkific Labs Inc is 1.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thinkific Labs Inc is −0.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thinkific Labs Inc is −14.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF)?
The operating margin of Thinkific Labs Inc is −10.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF)?
Revenue at Thinkific Labs Inc is growing +4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF)?
Earnings per share at Thinkific Labs Inc are growing −70.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Thinkific Labs Inc (THNCF) hold?
Thinkific Labs Inc holds more cash than debt, $6.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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