Timah Persero Tbk (TINS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Timah Persero Tbk IDR 2,321, price IDR 4,800, upside -51.7%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 501.36 IDR – 4,900 IDR · fair‑value band 1,501 IDR – 3,381 IDR · the 4,800 IDR price screens above the 2,321 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT TIMAH Tbk engages in tin mining and smelting operations in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Tin Mining, Coal Mining, Construction, Industry, and Other segments. The company offers Banka, Kundur, and Mentok tin, as well as tin solder and chemical products; and non-tin products, such as coal, nickel, and quartz sand.
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PT TIMAH Tbk engages in tin mining and smelting operations in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Tin Mining, Coal Mining, Construction, Industry, and Other segments. The company offers Banka, Kundur, and Mentok tin, as well as tin solder and chemical products; and non-tin products, such as coal, nickel, and quartz sand. It is also involved in the provision of workshop, construction, shipping dockyards, real estate development, and transportation; marketing coal; and trading activities. In addition, the company provides engineering and ship repair services, such as maritime vessel maintenance, shipbuilding, rental and purchase of maritime products, and other shipyard services. Further, it offers reclamation and agribusiness services, including agriculture, livestock, fisheries, trade essential oil industry, and agro-tourism services. The company was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Bangka, Indonesia. PT TIMAH Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Mineral Industri Indonesia (Persero).
Stock analysis
Timah Persero Tbk (TINS) currently trades at 4,800 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2,321 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 106.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 2,998 IDR per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the 4,800 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 756.42 IDR, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1,501 IDR (bear) to 3,381 IDR (bull), the price of 4,800 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Timah Persero Tbk reported revenue of 11.6T IDR in FY2025 versus 14.6T IDR in FY2021, a compound −5.7%/yr. Reported net income was 1.3T IDR in FY2025, compounding +0.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 35.7T IDR (≈ $3.6B) · P/E ratio 13.3 · P/S ratio 1.51 · EPS (TTM) 362.00 IDR · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 11.4% · Return on equity 30.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 311% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −52%, TINS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1,501 IDRFair Value 2,321 IDRBull 3,381 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (264.81 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+2.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0% vs 18%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 16%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.6% a year for the price and +14.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 458 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−50% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)31% · Top 25%
Return on assets16% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)34% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth161% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)13.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B4.08× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.30× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA7.7× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)36· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Timah Persero Tbk (TINS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2,321 IDR versus a price of 4,800 IDR, about −52% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TINS?
Our model-based fair value for Timah Persero Tbk is 2,321 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 4,800 IDR.
What is the quality score of TINS?
Timah Persero Tbk has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Timah Persero Tbk (TINS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2,321 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1,501 IDR, optimistic scenario 3,381 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Timah Persero Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2,321 IDR, about −52% upside versus a price of 4,800 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1,501 IDR, optimistic scenario 3,381 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Timah Persero Tbk (TINS)?
Timah Persero Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 14.9T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Timah Persero Tbk pay a dividend?
Timah Persero Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.78% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Timah Persero Tbk (TINS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Timah Persero Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +30.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -5.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TINS use?
Our models discount Timah Persero Tbk at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Timah Persero Tbk that is +30.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Timah Persero Tbk (TINS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Timah Persero Tbk grew -5.4 % a year. The price currently implies +30.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Timah Persero Tbk (TINS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Timah Persero Tbk (+30.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Timah Persero Tbk (TINS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.85 %: that much free cash flow Timah Persero Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Timah Persero Tbk (TINS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Timah Persero Tbk it is 2,321 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 4,800 IDR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Timah Persero Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TINS trades above its calculated fair value: price 4,800 IDR, fair value 2,321 IDR, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TINS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (4,800 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2,321 IDR). For Timah Persero Tbk the two are 2,479 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Timah Persero Tbk worth?
The market values Timah Persero Tbk at about 35.7T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 4,800 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 2,321 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TINS?
Our models span a range for Timah Persero Tbk: cautious scenario 1,501 IDR, base 2,321 IDR, optimistic 3,381 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 4,800 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TINS?
Timah Persero Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 2,321 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.1, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 7.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Timah Persero Tbk (TINS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Timah Persero Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 30.7%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TINS from its 52-week high?
Timah Persero Tbk trades at 4,800 IDR, about 2% below its 52-week high of 4,900 IDR and 311% above the low of 1,167 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2,321 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Timah Persero Tbk?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Fortescue Ltd, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Timah Persero Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 4,800 IDR, calculated fair value 2,321 IDR (−52%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TINS calculated?
We run Timah Persero Tbk through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2,321 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Timah Persero Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Timah Persero Tbk (TINS)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 4,800 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 2,321 IDR, about −52% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Timah Persero Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (3,381 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (1,501 IDR to 3,381 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Timah Persero Tbk (TINS) come from?
Earnings per share at Timah Persero Tbk grew +15.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.0 %, EBIT margin +9.0 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Timah Persero Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Timah Persero Tbk (TINS)?
The market capitalisation of Timah Persero Tbk is 35.7T IDR (≈ $3.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Timah Persero Tbk (TINS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Timah Persero Tbk is 1.51 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Timah Persero Tbk (TINS)?
Earnings per share at Timah Persero Tbk are 362.00 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Timah Persero Tbk (TINS)?
The dividend yield of Timah Persero Tbk is 1.8% (payout 23.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Timah Persero Tbk (TINS)?
The net margin of Timah Persero Tbk is 11.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Timah Persero Tbk (TINS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Timah Persero Tbk is 30.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Timah Persero Tbk (TINS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Timah Persero Tbk is 10.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Timah Persero Tbk (TINS)?
The operating margin of Timah Persero Tbk is 34.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Timah Persero Tbk (TINS)?
Revenue at Timah Persero Tbk is growing +161% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Timah Persero Tbk (TINS)?
Earnings per share at Timah Persero Tbk are growing +11.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Timah Persero Tbk (TINS) hold?
Timah Persero Tbk holds more cash than debt, 85.2B IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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