Tekfen Holding AS (TKFHY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Tekfen Holding AS $7.67, price $10.23, upside -25.0%, quality 34 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.36 – $10.23 · fair‑value band $4.49 – $9.62 · the $10.23 price screens above the $7.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Tekfen Holding Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering and contracting, agriculture, and investment businesses in Turkey, CIS, the Middle Eastern countries, and internationally.
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Tekfen Holding Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering and contracting, agriculture, and investment businesses in Turkey, CIS, the Middle Eastern countries, and internationally. The company provides turnkey solutions for various facilities, including pipelines, oil and gas terminals, tank farms, oil refineries, offshore oil rigs, pump and compressor stations, power plants, industrial plants, petrochemical plants, highway and metro projects, sports complexes, steel structures, and superstructure and infrastructure projects. It is also involved in the agricultural input production of seeds and saplings, as well as the production of fertilizers. In addition, the company engages in trading, agriculture shipping agent, fruit manufacturing, fertilizer trade, and energy activities. Further, it provides insurance and management services. Tekfen Holding Anonim Sirketi was founded in 1956 and is based in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Tekfen Holding AS ADR (TKFHY) currently trades at $10.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.67, 25.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $7.11 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the $10.23 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.48, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $4.49 (bear) to $9.62 (bull), the price of $10.23 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tekfen Holding AS ADR reported revenue of 53.9B TRY in FY2025 versus 16.2B TRY in FY2021, a compound +35.0%/yr. Reported net income was −5.7B TRY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $574M · EPS (TTM) $−0.3800 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin −10.6% · Return on equity −15.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.6% · Revenue (TTM) $46.0B · Revenue growth (YoY) −16.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 239% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at −25%, TKFHY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.49Fair Value $7.67Bull $9.62
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +30.1% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.0% (2020) → −2.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 176 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−31.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−1.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−10.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−16.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
P/S (TTM)0.01× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF0.3× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tekfen Holding AS ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TKFHY
Frequently asked questions
Is Tekfen Holding AS (TKFHY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.67 versus a price of $10.23, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TKFHY?
Our model-based fair value for Tekfen Holding AS ADR is $7.67 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.23.
What is the quality score of TKFHY?
Tekfen Holding AS ADR has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tekfen Holding AS (TKFHY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.67 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.49, optimistic scenario $9.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tekfen Holding AS ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.67, about −25% upside versus a price of $10.23 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.49, optimistic scenario $9.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFHY)?
Tekfen Holding AS ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $46.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Tekfen Holding AS ADR pay a dividend?
Tekfen Holding AS ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.48% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFHY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tekfen Holding AS ADR it is $7.67 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $10.23. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tekfen Holding AS ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TKFHY trades above its calculated fair value: price $10.23, fair value $7.67, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TKFHY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.67). For Tekfen Holding AS ADR the two are $2.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tekfen Holding AS ADR worth?
The market values Tekfen Holding AS ADR at about $574M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $10.23; our models calculate a fair value of $7.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TKFHY?
Our models span a range for Tekfen Holding AS ADR: cautious scenario $4.49, base $7.67, optimistic $9.62 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $10.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFHY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tekfen Holding AS ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −15.5%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TKFHY from its 52-week high?
Tekfen Holding AS ADR trades at $10.23, at its 52-week high of $10.23 and 239% above the low of $3.02 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tekfen Holding AS ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tekfen Holding AS ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $10.23, calculated fair value $7.67 (−25%), Quality Score 34/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TKFHY calculated?
We run Tekfen Holding AS ADR through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tekfen Holding AS ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFHY)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was $10.23. Our model-based fair value is $7.67, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tekfen Holding AS ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($4.49 to $9.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Tekfen Holding AS ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFHY)?
The market capitalisation of Tekfen Holding AS ADR is $574M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFHY)?
Earnings per share at Tekfen Holding AS ADR are $−0.3800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFHY)?
The dividend yield of Tekfen Holding AS ADR is 0.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFHY)?
The net margin of Tekfen Holding AS ADR is −10.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFHY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tekfen Holding AS ADR is −15.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFHY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tekfen Holding AS ADR is −2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Tekfen Holding AS (TKFHY)?
Revenue at Tekfen Holding AS ADR is growing −16.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tekfen Holding AS (TKFHY)?
Earnings per share at Tekfen Holding AS ADR are growing −66.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tekfen Holding AS (TKFHY) generate?
The free cash flow of Tekfen Holding AS ADR is $1.8B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tekfen Holding AS (TKFHY) carry?
The net debt of Tekfen Holding AS ADR is $6.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026