Tokyo Gas Co (TKGSY) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $12.8B
Tokyo Gas Co
TKGSY · US
Fair value as of: Aug 15, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 15, 2026, revised from $35.44 to $20.39 (−42.5%) since Jul 21, 2026. Share price +1.6% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range ($11.47 to $27.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.10 – $24.80 · fair‑value band $11.47 – $27.78 · the $18.92 price screens below the $20.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.
Analysis
Tokyo Gas Co (TKGSY) currently trades at $18.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.39, implying the stock looks roughly 7.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Tokyo Gas Co generated revenue of $2.8T at a net margin of 8.0%. Revenue grew 10.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. Net debt stands at $1.0T. Fundamentals as of Aug 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $11.47 (bear case) to $27.78 (bull case); at $18.92, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 8%, TKGSY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($36.00) versus Economic Profit ($5.03). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tokyo Gas Co.,Ltd. engages in the production, supply, and sale of city gas and LNG in Japan. It operates through Energy Solutions, Network, Overseas, and Urban development segments.
Full company description
Tokyo Gas Co.,Ltd. engages in the production, supply, and sale of city gas and LNG in Japan. It operates through Energy Solutions, Network, Overseas, and Urban development segments. The company is involved in the production, supply, and sale of electricity; provision of engineering solutions and energy services, as well as transmission service of city gas; and trading activities. It also provides offshore resource development and investment; and energy supply. In addition, the company engages in the real estate development; and leasing and management of land and buildings. The company was formerly known as Tokyo Gas Company and changed its name to Tokyo Gas Co.,Ltd. in July 1893. The company was incorporated in 1885 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Tokyo Gas Co reported revenue of $3.0T in FY2026 versus $2.1T in FY2022, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was $241B in FY2026, compounding +25.9%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +4.1 pp · buybacks/dilution +2.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €28.94 | €31.58 | +9% |
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $169.59 | $85.67 | -49% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $42.01 | $28.59 | -32% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €47.45 | €48.32 | +2% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$6.76 | HK$4.79 | -29% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹177.95 | ₹130.21 | -27% |
| Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL | ₹660.35 | ₹101.36 | -85% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥17.32 | ¥25.71 | +48% |
| ENN Energy Holdings 2688 | HK$47.16 | HK$107.98 | +129% |
| China Suntien Green Energy Corporation 600956 | ¥7.26 | ¥7.37 | +2% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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