Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd $21.73, price $21.84, upside -0.5%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.10 – $24.80 · fair‑value band $12.80 – $28.53 · the $21.84 price screens above the $21.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Tokyo Gas Co.,Ltd. engages in the production, supply, and sale of city gas and LNG in Japan. It operates through Energy Solutions, Network, Overseas, and Urban development segments.
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Tokyo Gas Co.,Ltd. engages in the production, supply, and sale of city gas and LNG in Japan. It operates through Energy Solutions, Network, Overseas, and Urban development segments. The company is involved in the production, supply, and sale of electricity; provision of engineering solutions and energy services, as well as transmission service of city gas; and trading activities. It also provides offshore resource development and investment; and energy supply. In addition, the company engages in the real estate development; and leasing and management of land and buildings. The company was formerly known as Tokyo Gas Company and changed its name to Tokyo Gas Co.,Ltd. in July 1893. The company was incorporated in 1885 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY) currently trades at $21.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.73, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $38.41 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the $21.84 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.23, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $12.80 (bear) to $28.53 (bull), the price of $21.84 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Tokyo Gas Co Ltd reported revenue of ¥3.0T in FY2026 versus ¥2.1T in FY2022, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥241B in FY2026, compounding +25.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $14.5B · P/E ratio 10.6 · P/S ratio 0.85 · EPS (TTM) $2.06 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 8.0% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 0%, TKGSY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $12.80Fair Value $21.73Bull $28.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.8% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +23.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.45.2% vs 14.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 76% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.0% a year for the price and −1.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 103 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−0.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.6% · Above median
Return on assets3.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)5.6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)8.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.66× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tokyo Gas Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TKGSY
Frequently asked questions
Is Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.73 versus a price of $21.84, about −0% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TKGSY?
Our model-based fair value for Tokyo Gas Co Ltd is $21.73 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.84.
What is the quality score of TKGSY?
Tokyo Gas Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.73 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.80, optimistic scenario $28.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tokyo Gas Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.73, about −0% upside versus a price of $21.84 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $12.80, optimistic scenario $28.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY)?
Tokyo Gas Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.9T (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Tokyo Gas Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Tokyo Gas Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.74% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tokyo Gas Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -3.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.2 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TKGSY use?
Our models discount Tokyo Gas Co Ltd at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tokyo Gas Co Ltd that is -3.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tokyo Gas Co Ltd grew +11.2 % a year. The price currently implies -3.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (-3.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.57 %: that much free cash flow Tokyo Gas Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tokyo Gas Co Ltd it is $21.73 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $21.84. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tokyo Gas Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, TKGSY trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.84, fair value $21.73, a gap of about −0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TKGSY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.73). For Tokyo Gas Co Ltd the two are $0.1060 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tokyo Gas Co Ltd worth?
The market values Tokyo Gas Co Ltd at about $14.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $21.84; our models calculate a fair value of $21.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TKGSY?
Our models span a range for Tokyo Gas Co Ltd: cautious scenario $12.80, base $21.73, optimistic $28.53 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $21.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TKGSY?
Tokyo Gas Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $21.73 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 7.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 9.6%, debt of 0.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TKGSY from its 52-week high?
Tokyo Gas Co Ltd trades at $21.84, about 12% below its 52-week high of $24.80 and 28% above the low of $17.03 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tokyo Gas Co Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Uniper SE, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tokyo Gas Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $21.84, calculated fair value $21.73 (−0%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TKGSY calculated?
We run Tokyo Gas Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $21.73, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Tokyo Gas Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was $21.84. Our model-based fair value is $21.73, about −0% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tokyo Gas Co Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($12.80 to $28.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY) come from?
Earnings per share at Tokyo Gas Co Ltd grew +10.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin −0.9 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY)?
The market capitalisation of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd is $14.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd is 0.85 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY)?
Earnings per share at Tokyo Gas Co Ltd are $2.06 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY)?
The dividend yield of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd is 1.7% (payout 18.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY)?
The net margin of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd is 8.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY)?
The operating margin of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY)?
Revenue at Tokyo Gas Co Ltd is growing +4.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY)?
Earnings per share at Tokyo Gas Co Ltd are growing −62.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tokyo Gas Co Ltd (TKGSY) carry?
The net debt of Tokyo Gas Co Ltd is ¥1.0T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026