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The Mission Group plc (TMG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of The Mission Group plc £0.83, price £0.26, upside +219.2%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Communication Services · GB

TM Thin data Oct 4, 2026

The Mission Group plc

TMG · LSE

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

Fair value £0.8300 · Strongly undervalued (+219.2%)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Quality 53/100
Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
Weak Growth (revenue 5y +5.8 %/yr in GBX)
Loss-making · -11.1% net margin (TTM)
Narrow moat 18/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

£0.7215 £0.0969 Fair Value £0.8300 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £0.0969 – £0.7215 · fair‑value band £0.6000 – £1.07 · the £0.2600 price screens below the £0.8300 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

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Company profile

The Mission Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a collective of creative and martech agencies company in the United Kingdom, the United States, Asia, and rest of Europe. It operates through Business & Corporate; Consumer & Lifestyle; Health & Wellness; Property; Sports & Entertainment; Technology; and MISSION Advantage & Central segments.

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The Mission Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a collective of creative and martech agencies company in the United Kingdom, the United States, Asia, and rest of Europe. It operates through Business & Corporate; Consumer & Lifestyle; Health & Wellness; Property; Sports & Entertainment; Technology; and MISSION Advantage & Central segments. The company offers advertising and ad hoc marketing campaign services; designing and building of websites, portals, and applications; and software development services. It also provides media buying; design and planning of events and conferences, as well as supply of exhibition stands; learning and training courses; public relation services; and engages in the sale of cinema tickets. In addition, the company is involved in marketing communications for automotive sector; digital, sports and entertainment, and data marketing services; pricing and market services for healthcare sector; marketing communications for medical sector; marketing communications services for property sector; and sales promotion. The company was formerly known as The Mission Marketing Group plc and changed its name to The Mission Group plc in September 2019. The Mission Group plc was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Barnstaple, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

The Mission Group plc (TMG) currently trades at £0.2600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.8300, implying the stock looks roughly 68.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £1.53 per share, and 13 of the 13 models we run sit above the £0.2600 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £0.4400, and 0 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: £0.6000 (bear) to £1.07 (bull), the price of £0.2600 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

The Mission Group plc reported revenue of £162M in FY2025 versus £153M in FY2021, a compound +1.3%/yr. Reported net income was −£19.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 23.6M GBX · P/S ratio 0.14 · EPS (TTM) £−0.1700 · Net margin −11.9% · Return on equity −23.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9% · Operating margin 2.8% · Revenue (TTM) £167M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 108% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 23% fair-value upside, at 219%, TMG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear £0.6000 Fair Value £0.8300 Bull £1.07
Price £0.2600 · Upside +219.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF £1.04 £1.53 £2.22 80
Growth DCF £1.07 £1.52 £2.12 79
5Y EBITDA Exit £1.69 £2.81 £4.08 74
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF £1.04 £1.53 £2.22 80
5Y Revenue Exit £0.6400 £0.9300 £1.27 73
5Y EBITDA Exit £1.69 £2.81 £4.08 74
10Y Revenue Exit £0.7700 £1.05 £1.39 68
10Y EBITDA Exit £1.43 £2.30 £3.41 68
Earnings-Based
EPV £0.3800 £0.4500 £0.5200 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT £0.6000 £0.8300 £1.07 66
EV/EBITDA £2.38 £3.21 £4.04 67
EV/Revenue £0.4300 £0.6600 £0.8900 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £0.3300 £0.4400 £0.6500 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £1.07 £1.52 £2.12 79
Rev-Margin DCF £0.6400 £0.9400 £1.28 73
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder £0.3800 £0.4500 £0.5200 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 42
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 2
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 72
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 64
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.0% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.2% (2020) → 3.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−15.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.9% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Advertising Agencies · 186 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside +200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 1.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −11.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 2.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 6.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.25× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.53× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.19× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 3.8× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 9.2× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 30
FUTURE (revenue growth)33 · sector 15
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 8
HEALTH (low debt)87 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 54

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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AppLovin Corporation APP $290.43 $319.47 +10%
Publicis Groupe S.A PUB €94.24 €145.63 +55%
Omnicom Group OMC $73.63 $114.19 +55%
Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 ¥4.66 ¥5.71 +23%
JCDecaux SE DEC €24.96 €20.99 −16%
The Trade Desk, Inc TTD $12.05 $43.84 +264%
WPP plc WPP $25.99 $39.72 +53%
Leo Group 002131 ¥4.31 ¥0.6000 −86%
Magnite, Inc MGNI $25.67 $28.24 +10%
Mobvista Inc 1860 HK$13.51 HK$12.22 −10%

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The Mission Group plc · Fair Value
£0.8300 +69%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Mission Group plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TMG.LSE

Frequently asked questions

Is The Mission Group plc (TMG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.8300 versus a price of £0.2600, about +219% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TMG?
Our model-based fair value for The Mission Group plc is £0.8300 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £0.2600.
What is the quality score of TMG?
The Mission Group plc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Mission Group plc (TMG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.8300 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.6000, optimistic scenario £1.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Mission Group plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.8300, about +219% upside versus a price of £0.2600 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £0.6000, optimistic scenario £1.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Mission Group plc (TMG)?
The Mission Group plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £167M (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into The Mission Group plc (TMG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The Mission Group plc would have to grow free cash flow by -15.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.8 % per year. As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TMG use?
Our models discount The Mission Group plc at 12.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 2.06, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For The Mission Group plc that is -15.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has The Mission Group plc (TMG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at The Mission Group plc grew +5.8 % a year. The price currently implies -15.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of The Mission Group plc (TMG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into The Mission Group plc (-15.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of The Mission Group plc (TMG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 34.57 %: that much free cash flow The Mission Group plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of The Mission Group plc (TMG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Mission Group plc it is £0.8300 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of £0.2600. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The Mission Group plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, TMG trades below its calculated fair value: price £0.2600, fair value £0.8300, a gap of about +219% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TMG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£0.2600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.8300). For The Mission Group plc the two are £0.5700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Mission Group plc worth?
The market values The Mission Group plc at about 23.6M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is £0.2600; our models calculate a fair value of £0.8300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TMG?
Our models span a range for The Mission Group plc: cautious scenario £0.6000, base £0.8300, optimistic £1.07 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price £0.2600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of The Mission Group plc (TMG)?
Balance-sheet figures for The Mission Group plc (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −23.4%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TMG from its 52-week high?
The Mission Group plc trades at £0.2600, about 7% below its 52-week high of £0.2800 and 108% above the low of £0.1250 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.8300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Mission Group plc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value AppLovin Corporation, Publicis Groupe S.A, Omnicom Group, Focus Media Information Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Mission Group plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price £0.2600, calculated fair value £0.8300 (+219%), Quality Score 53/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TMG calculated?
We run The Mission Group plc through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £0.8300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. The Mission Group plc currently trades 69 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Mission Group plc (TMG)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was £0.2600. Our model-based fair value is £0.8300, about +219% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Mission Group plc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (£0.6000). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of The Mission Group plc

How large is the market capitalisation of The Mission Group plc (TMG)?
The market capitalisation of The Mission Group plc is 23.6M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The Mission Group plc (TMG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Mission Group plc is 0.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Mission Group plc (TMG)?
Earnings per share at The Mission Group plc are £−0.1700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of The Mission Group plc (TMG)?
The net margin of The Mission Group plc is −11.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Mission Group plc (TMG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Mission Group plc is −23.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Mission Group plc (TMG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Mission Group plc is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Mission Group plc (TMG)?
The operating margin of The Mission Group plc is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Mission Group plc (TMG)?
Revenue at The Mission Group plc is growing +6.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does The Mission Group plc (TMG) carry?
The net debt of The Mission Group plc is 9.1M GBX (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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