Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS TRY 191, price TRY 63.55, upside +200.0%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Tümosan Motor ve Traktör Sanayi A.S. engages in the production, marketing, and sale of diesel engines and tractors in Turkey and internationally. The company offers garden and field tractors; agricultural machinery engines, industrial engines, marine engines, and generator engines; animal breeding equipment, such as front loaders; and electric forklifts.
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Tümosan Motor ve Traktör Sanayi A.S. engages in the production, marketing, and sale of diesel engines and tractors in Turkey and internationally. The company offers garden and field tractors; agricultural machinery engines, industrial engines, marine engines, and generator engines; animal breeding equipment, such as front loaders; and electric forklifts. Its diesel engines are used in tractors, automotive and cleaning equipment, generators, military land vehicles, and marine vehicles. The company also provides spare parts and after-sales services, as well as marine and military subsystems and military platforms. Tümosan Motor ve Traktör Sanayi A.S. was founded in 1975 and is based in Istanbul, Turkey. Tümosan Motor ve Traktör Sanayi A.S. operates as a subsidiary of Eregli Tekstil Turizm Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S.
Stock analysis
Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN) currently trades at 63.55 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 190.65 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 1,364 TRY per share, and 16 of the 18 models we run sit above the 63.55 TRY price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 60.07 TRY, and 2 of the 18 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 138.58 TRY (bear) to 325.15 TRY (bull), the price of 63.55 TRY sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS reported revenue of 3.5B TRY in FY2025 versus 1.1B TRY in FY2021, a compound +32.4%/yr. Reported net income was 4.5B TRY in FY2025, compounding +207.6%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 9.4B TRY (≈ $192M) · P/S ratio 5.16 · EPS (TTM) −39.90 TRY · Net margin 131% · Return on equity −29.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9% · Operating margin −11.1% · Revenue (TTM) 1.8B TRY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 200%, TMSN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 138.58 TRYFair Value 190.65 TRYBull 325.15 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−62.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +22.6% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in TRY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+98.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+98.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → −46%
2025 sits 485% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.6% a year for the price.
Compare Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 155 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)131% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−11% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−84% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TMSN
Frequently asked questions
Is Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 190.65 TRY versus a price of 63.55 TRY, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TMSN?
Our model-based fair value for Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS is 190.65 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 63.55 TRY.
What is the quality score of TMSN?
Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 190.65 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 18 valuation models. Cautious scenario 138.58 TRY, optimistic scenario 325.15 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 190.65 TRY, about +200% upside versus a price of 63.55 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 138.58 TRY, optimistic scenario 325.15 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN)?
Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.8B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS would have to grow free cash flow by +23.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 17.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +32.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TMSN use?
Our models discount Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS at 17.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS that is +23.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (17.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS grew +32.8 % a year. The price currently implies +23.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (+23.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.25 %: that much free cash flow Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (17.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS it is 190.65 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 63.55 TRY. It is the blended result of 18 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TMSN trades below its calculated fair value: price 63.55 TRY, fair value 190.65 TRY, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TMSN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (63.55 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (190.65 TRY). For Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS the two are 127.10 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS worth?
The market values Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS at about 9.4B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 63.55 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 190.65 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TMSN?
Our models span a range for Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS: cautious scenario 138.58 TRY, base 190.65 TRY, optimistic 325.15 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 63.55 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −29.7%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TMSN from its 52-week high?
Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS trades at 63.55 TRY, about 47% below its 52-week high of 119.10 TRY and at the low of 63.55 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 190.65 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 63.55 TRY, calculated fair value 190.65 TRY (+200%), Quality Score 41/100, from 18 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TMSN calculated?
We run Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS through 18 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 190.65 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 63.55 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 190.65 TRY, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (138.58 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (138.58 TRY to 325.15 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN)?
The market capitalisation of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS is 9.4B TRY (≈ $192M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS is 5.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN)?
Earnings per share at Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS are −39.90 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN)?
The net margin of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS is 131% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS is −29.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS is 6.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN)?
The operating margin of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS is −11.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN)?
Revenue at Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS is growing −84.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN)?
Earnings per share at Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS are growing +38.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS (TMSN) carry?
The net debt of Tumosan Motor ve Traktor Sanayi AS is 5.1B TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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