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TMX Group (TMXXF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of TMX Group $33.55, price $36.97, upside -9.3%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · US · ISIN CA87262K1057

TG TMX Group logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

TMX Group

TMXXF · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $33.55 · Overvalued (−9.3%)
✓Quality 64/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue YoY +17.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 29.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.4% dividend yield · Sustainable
✓Wide moat 75/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$41.45 $3.20 Fair Value $33.55 Jul 2015 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.20 – $41.45 · fair‑value band $10.62 – $46.07 · the $36.97 price screens above the $33.55 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

TMX Group Limited operates exchanges, markets, and clearinghouses primarily for capital markets in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally. It operates in four segments: Global Insights; Capital Formation; Derivatives Trading & Clearing; and Equities and Fixed Income Trading & Clearing.

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TMX Group Limited operates exchanges, markets, and clearinghouses primarily for capital markets in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally. It operates in four segments: Global Insights; Capital Formation; Derivatives Trading & Clearing; and Equities and Fixed Income Trading & Clearing. The company delivers equities and index data, as well as integrated data sets for the proprietary and third-party analytics to help clients in making trading and investment decisions; and provides solutions to European and global wholesale energy markets for price discovery, trade execution, post-trade transparency, and straight through processing. It also operates Toronto Stock Exchange, a national stock exchange for the senior equities market; TSX Venture Exchange, a national stock exchange for the public venture equity market; TSX Trust that provides corporate trust, registrar, transfer agency, and foreign exchange services; and Newsfile, a news dissemination and regulatory filing provider. In addition, the company operates Montreal Exchange, a national derivatives exchange; Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation, a clearinghouse for options and futures contracts; BOX, a US equity operations market; and various over-the-counter products and fixed income repurchase agreements. Further, it engages in the trading operations of Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange, and Alpha Exchange; CDS Clearing, an automated facility for the clearing and settlement of equities and fixed income transactions, and custody of securities; and provision of fixed income inter-dealer brokerage services, as well as involved in trading operation of AlphaX U.S., a broker-dealer. The company was formerly known as Maple Group Acquisition Corporation and changed its name to TMX Group Limited in August 2012. TMX Group Limited was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Stock analysis

TMX Group (TMXXF) currently trades at $36.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $33.55, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 10.2%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $34.64 per share, and 2 of the 13 models we run sit above the $36.97 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.10, and 11 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $10.62 (bear) to $46.07 (bull), the price of $36.97 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

TMX Group reported revenue of C$1.7B in FY2025 versus C$981M in FY2021, a compound +15.0%/yr. Reported net income was C$416M in FY2025, compounding +5.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $9.4B · P/E ratio 27.4 · P/S ratio 6.63 · EPS (TTM) $1.35 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 24.2% · Return on equity 11.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 61 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −9%, TMXXF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $10.62 Fair Value $33.55 Bull $46.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3554 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $37.51 $65.84 $111.29 76
Residual Income $10.18 $11.01 $12.56 76
Owner Earnings $32.68 $59.92 $105.40 73
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $32.68 $59.92 $105.40 73
5Y P/E Exit $16.94 $26.13 $36.04 71
10Y P/E Exit $23.92 $34.64 $48.55 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $7.19 $33.13 $45.48 64
Lynch FV $8.71 $12.45 $16.18 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $5.22 $10.39 $15.74 67
DDM Multi-Stage $5.22 $8.98 $10.97 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $10.30 $13.74 $17.17 63
P/B Multiple $12.70 $16.93 $21.17 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.05 $8.10 $12.10 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $37.51 $65.84 $111.29 76
Rev-Margin DCF $12.93 $18.85 $26.03 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income $10.18 $11.01 $12.56 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 89
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 2
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 90
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 43
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.8% vs 14.2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.48% → 45%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.3% a year for the price and +7.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+11.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+10.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+9.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+8.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+7.4%

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TMX Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TMXXF

Frequently asked questions

Is TMX Group (TMXXF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $33.55 versus a price of $36.97, about −9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TMXXF?
Our model-based fair value for TMX Group is $33.55 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $36.97.
What is the quality score of TMXXF?
TMX Group has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TMX Group (TMXXF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $33.55 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.62, optimistic scenario $46.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TMX Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $33.55, about −9% upside versus a price of $36.97 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $10.62, optimistic scenario $46.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TMX Group (TMXXF)?
TMX Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$1.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does TMX Group pay a dividend?
TMX Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.38% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into TMX Group (TMXXF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TMX Group would have to grow free cash flow by +5.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TMXXF use?
Our models discount TMX Group at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.03, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TMX Group that is +5.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TMX Group (TMXXF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at TMX Group grew +14.7 % a year. The price currently implies +5.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TMX Group (TMXXF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TMX Group (+5.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TMX Group (TMXXF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.00 %: that much free cash flow TMX Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TMX Group (TMXXF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TMX Group it is $33.55 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $36.97. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TMX Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TMXXF trades above its calculated fair value: price $36.97, fair value $33.55, a gap of about −9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TMXXF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($36.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($33.55). For TMX Group the two are $3.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TMX Group worth?
The market values TMX Group at about $9.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $36.97; our models calculate a fair value of $33.55 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TMXXF?
Our models span a range for TMX Group: cautious scenario $10.62, base $33.55, optimistic $46.07 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $36.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is TMXXF from its 52-week high?
TMX Group trades at $36.97, about 9% below its 52-week high of $40.80 and 16% above the low of $31.82 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $33.55 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TMX Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value S&P Global Inc, CME Group, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc, Moody's Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TMX Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $36.97, calculated fair value $33.55 (−9%), Quality Score 64/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TMXXF calculated?
We run TMX Group through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $33.55, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. TMX Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TMX Group (TMXXF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $36.97. Our model-based fair value is $33.55, about −9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TMX Group right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($10.62 to $46.07). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of TMX Group (TMXXF) come from?
Earnings per share at TMX Group grew +13.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.4 %, EBIT margin −2.3 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of TMX Group

How large is the market capitalisation of TMX Group (TMXXF)?
The market capitalisation of TMX Group is $9.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of TMX Group (TMXXF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of TMX Group is 27.4. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of TMX Group (TMXXF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TMX Group is 6.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TMX Group (TMXXF)?
Earnings per share at TMX Group are $1.35 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TMX Group (TMXXF)?
The dividend yield of TMX Group is 2.4% (payout 65.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TMX Group (TMXXF)?
The net margin of TMX Group is 24.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TMX Group (TMXXF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TMX Group is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TMX Group (TMXXF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TMX Group is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TMX Group (TMXXF)?
The operating margin of TMX Group is 50.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TMX Group (TMXXF)?
Revenue at TMX Group is growing +16.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TMX Group (TMXXF)?
Earnings per share at TMX Group are growing +111% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does TMX Group (TMXXF) carry?
The net debt of TMX Group is C$1.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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