Trainline Plc (TNLIF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Trainline Plc $8.07, price $3.40, upside +137.4%, quality 79 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.82 – $5.68 · fair‑value band $4.36 – $11.66 · the $3.40 price screens below the $8.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Trainline plc engages in the operation of an independent rail and coach travel platform that sells rail and coach tickets worldwide. It operates in three segments: UK Consumer, International Consumer, and Trainline Solutions. The UK Consumer segment provides travel apps and websites for individual travelers for journeys within the United Kingdom.
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Trainline plc engages in the operation of an independent rail and coach travel platform that sells rail and coach tickets worldwide. It operates in three segments: UK Consumer, International Consumer, and Trainline Solutions. The UK Consumer segment provides travel apps and websites for individual travelers for journeys within the United Kingdom. Its International Consumer segment offers travel apps and websites for individual travelers for journeys between the United Kingdom and outside the United Kingdom. The Trainline Solutions segment provides travel portal platforms for its own branded business units, corporates, and travel management companies; and white label e-commerce platforms for train operating companies within the United Kingdom, as well as operates Platform One Solutions. Trainline plc was founded in 1997 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Trainline Plc (TNLIF) currently trades at $3.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.07, implying the stock looks roughly 57.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $8.91 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the $3.40 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $2.63, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $4.36 (bear) to $11.66 (bull), the price of $3.40 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Trainline Plc reported revenue of £453M in FY2026 versus £189M in FY2022, a compound +24.5%/yr. Reported net income was £79.8M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $1.3B · P/E ratio 15.5 · P/S ratio 2.72 · EPS (TTM) $0.2200 · Net margin 17.6% · Return on equity 32.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.2% · Operating margin 25.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 137%, TNLIF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.36Fair Value $8.07Bull $11.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1308 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+69.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+69.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−149% → 27%
2026 sits 193% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in GBP, UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.3% a year for the price and +0.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Travel Services · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)32.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)17.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)25.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.11× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)15.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B4.75× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Trainline Plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TNLIF
Frequently asked questions
Is Trainline Plc (TNLIF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.07 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $3.40, about +137% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TNLIF?
Our model-based fair value for Trainline Plc is $8.07 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $3.40.
What is the quality score of TNLIF?
Trainline Plc has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Trainline Plc (TNLIF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.07 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.36, optimistic scenario $11.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Trainline Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.07, about +137% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $3.40 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.36, optimistic scenario $11.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Trainline Plc (TNLIF)?
Trainline Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £453M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Trainline Plc (TNLIF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Trainline Plc would have to grow free cash flow by +3.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +46.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TNLIF use?
Our models discount Trainline Plc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Trainline Plc that is +3.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Trainline Plc (TNLIF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Trainline Plc grew +46.5 % a year. The price currently implies +3.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Trainline Plc (TNLIF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Trainline Plc (+3.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Trainline Plc (TNLIF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.21 %: that much free cash flow Trainline Plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Trainline Plc (TNLIF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Trainline Plc it is $8.07 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $3.40. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Trainline Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TNLIF trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.40, fair value $8.07, a gap of about +137% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TNLIF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.07). For Trainline Plc the two are $4.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Trainline Plc worth?
The market values Trainline Plc at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $3.40; our models calculate a fair value of $8.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TNLIF?
Our models span a range for Trainline Plc: cautious scenario $4.36, base $8.07, optimistic $11.66 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $3.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TNLIF?
Trainline Plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.07 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 4.8, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 9.0.
What is the PEG ratio of TNLIF?
The PEG ratio of Trainline Plc is 0.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Trainline Plc (TNLIF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Trainline Plc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 32.8%, debt of 1.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TNLIF from its 52-week high?
Trainline Plc trades at $3.40, about 18% below its 52-week high of $4.14 and 21% above the low of $2.82 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Trainline Plc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Booking Holdings, Airbnb, Inc, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, Viking Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Trainline Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $3.40, calculated fair value $8.07 (+137%), Quality Score 79/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TNLIF calculated?
We run Trainline Plc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Trainline Plc currently trades 58 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Trainline Plc (TNLIF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $3.40. Our model-based fair value is $8.07, about +137% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Trainline Plc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (79/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($4.36). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($4.36 to $11.66). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Trainline Plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Trainline Plc (TNLIF)?
The market capitalisation of Trainline Plc is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Trainline Plc (TNLIF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Trainline Plc is 2.72 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Trainline Plc (TNLIF)?
Earnings per share at Trainline Plc are $0.2200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Trainline Plc (TNLIF)?
The net margin of Trainline Plc is 17.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Trainline Plc (TNLIF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Trainline Plc is 32.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Trainline Plc (TNLIF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Trainline Plc is 8.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Trainline Plc (TNLIF)?
The operating margin of Trainline Plc is 25.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Trainline Plc (TNLIF)?
Revenue at Trainline Plc is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Trainline Plc (TNLIF)?
Earnings per share at Trainline Plc are growing +43.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Trainline Plc (TNLIF) carry?
The net debt of Trainline Plc is £167M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026