Tinybeans Group (TNY) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · AU · Market cap A$14.7M
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price −6.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 55% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0408). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.0204 to A$0.0408) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0550 – A$1.38 · fair‑value band A$0.0204 – A$0.0408 · the A$0.0750 price screens above the A$0.0340 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Tinybeans Group (TNY) currently trades at A$0.0750, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0340, implying the stock looks roughly 54.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Tinybeans Group generated revenue of A$5.0M at a net margin of -20.3%. Revenue grew 7.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -38.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$1.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0204 (bear case) to A$0.0408 (bull case); at A$0.0750, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -20% fair-value upside, at -55%, TNY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (A$0.0200) versus Asset-Based (A$0.0100). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tinybeans Group Limited operates a consumer subscription platform for parents and families in the United States, Australia, and internationally. It operates Tinybeans, a private photo-sharing application and media platform that provides a private, secure, and authentic space for intentional parents to connect with loved ones.
Full company description
Tinybeans Group Limited operates a consumer subscription platform for parents and families in the United States, Australia, and internationally. It operates Tinybeans, a private photo-sharing application and media platform that provides a private, secure, and authentic space for intentional parents to connect with loved ones. Tinybeans Group Limited was founded in 2012 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tinybeans Group reported revenue of A$4.8M in FY2025 versus A$8.1M in FY2021, a compound −12.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$2.3M in FY2025.
TNY screens 55% overvalued. Compare with Alphabet Inc →
Peer Group
Internet Content & Information · 151 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet Inc GOOGL | $354.46 | $145.14 | -59% |
| Meta Platforms, Inc META | $669.21 | $534.91 | -20% |
| Tencent Holdings 0700 | HK$460.20 | HK$467.50 | +2% |
| Spotify Technology S.A SPOT | $485.38 | $209.56 | -57% |
| Reddit, Inc RDDT | $195.34 | $39.59 | -80% |
| Baidu, Inc BIDU | $109.50 | $66.96 | -39% |
| Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 1024 | HK$44.70 | HK$101.03 | +126% |
| NAVER Corporation 035420 | 191,300 KRW | 231,585 KRW | +21% |
| Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 | HK$34.74 | HK$65.78 | +89% |
| REA Group REA | A$149.14 | A$88.53 | -41% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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