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Tinybeans Group Ltd (TNY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Tinybeans Group Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Valuation from Sep 13, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Communication Services · AU · ISIN AU000000TNY6

TG Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Tinybeans Group Ltd

TNY · AU

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value A$0.0398 · Overvalued (−20%)
!Quality 39/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −4.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -20.3% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/9)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 6 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$1.38 A$0.0500 Fair Value A$0.0398 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0500 – A$1.38 · fair‑value band A$0.0304 – A$0.0492 · the A$0.0500 price screens above the A$0.0398 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Tinybeans Group Limited operates a consumer subscription platform for parents and families in the United States, Australia, and internationally. It operates Tinybeans, a private photo-sharing application and media platform that provides a private, secure, and authentic space for intentional parents to connect with loved ones.

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Tinybeans Group Limited operates a consumer subscription platform for parents and families in the United States, Australia, and internationally. It operates Tinybeans, a private photo-sharing application and media platform that provides a private, secure, and authentic space for intentional parents to connect with loved ones. Tinybeans Group Limited was founded in 2012 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

Stock analysis

Tinybeans Group Ltd (TNY) currently trades at A$0.0500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0398, implying the stock looks roughly 25.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0304 (bear) to A$0.0492 (bull), the price of A$0.0500 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Tinybeans Group Ltd reported revenue of $4.8M in FY2025 versus $8.1M in FY2021, a compound −12.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$14.7M (≈ $10.3M) · P/S ratio 2.93 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Net margin −47.1% · Return on equity −38.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −54.7% · Operating margin −14.4% · Revenue (TTM) $5.0M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 69% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −20%, TNY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0304 Fair Value A$0.0398 Bull A$0.0492
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) n/a A$0.0100 A$0.0100 50
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) n/a A$0.0100 A$0.0100 50

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 13

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 29
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 9
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−23.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +35.1% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−77.6% (2020) → −49.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TNY screens 26% overvalued. Compare with Alphabet Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 150 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −20% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −11% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −20% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −14% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 7% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper

P/B 6.47× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 2.05× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)6 · sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)35 · sector 28
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 39

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Alphabet Inc GOOGL $351.16 $333.34 −5%
Meta Platforms, Inc META $744.10 $818.51 +10%
Tencent Holdings 0700 HK$438.40 HK$707.54 +61%
Spotify Technology S.A SPOT $510.40 $561.44 +10%
Reddit, Inc RDDT $151.98 $132.52 −13%
Baidu, Inc BIDU $89.78 $67.35 −25%
Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 1024 HK$31.22 HK$101.62 +225%
NAVER Corporation 035420 194,700 KRW 315,395 KRW +62%
Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 HK$32.28 HK$71.55 +122%
REA Group REA A$152.08 A$167.29 +10%

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A$0.0398 −26%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tinybeans Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TNY

Frequently asked questions

Is Tinybeans Group Ltd (TNY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0398 versus a price of A$0.0500, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TNY?
Our model-based fair value for Tinybeans Group Ltd is A$0.0398 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0500.
What is the quality score of TNY?
Tinybeans Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tinybeans Group Ltd (TNY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0398 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0304, optimistic scenario A$0.0492. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tinybeans Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0398, about −20% upside versus a price of A$0.0500 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0304, optimistic scenario A$0.0492. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tinybeans Group Ltd (TNY)?
Tinybeans Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.0M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tinybeans Group Ltd (TNY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tinybeans Group Ltd it is A$0.0398 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of A$0.0500. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tinybeans Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, TNY trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0500, fair value A$0.0398, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TNY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0500); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0398). For Tinybeans Group Ltd the two are A$0.0102 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tinybeans Group Ltd worth?
The market values Tinybeans Group Ltd at about A$14.7M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0500; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0398 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TNY?
Our models span a range for Tinybeans Group Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0304, base A$0.0398, optimistic A$0.0492 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price A$0.0500). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tinybeans Group Ltd (TNY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tinybeans Group Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −38.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TNY from its 52-week high?
Tinybeans Group Ltd trades at A$0.0500, about 69% below its 52-week high of A$0.1600 and at the low of A$0.0500 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0398 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tinybeans Group Ltd?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Spotify Technology S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tinybeans Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price A$0.0500, calculated fair value A$0.0398 (−20%), Quality Score 39/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TNY calculated?
We run Tinybeans Group Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0398, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Tinybeans Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tinybeans Group Ltd (TNY)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0500. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0398, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tinybeans Group Ltd right now?
Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Tinybeans Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Tinybeans Group Ltd (TNY)?
The market capitalisation of Tinybeans Group Ltd is A$14.7M (≈ $10.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tinybeans Group Ltd (TNY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tinybeans Group Ltd is 2.93 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tinybeans Group Ltd (TNY)?
Earnings per share at Tinybeans Group Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tinybeans Group Ltd (TNY)?
The net margin of Tinybeans Group Ltd is −47.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tinybeans Group Ltd (TNY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tinybeans Group Ltd is −38.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tinybeans Group Ltd (TNY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tinybeans Group Ltd is −54.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tinybeans Group Ltd (TNY)?
The operating margin of Tinybeans Group Ltd is −14.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tinybeans Group Ltd (TNY)?
Revenue at Tinybeans Group Ltd is growing +7.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −23.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Tinybeans Group Ltd (TNY) generate?
The free cash flow of Tinybeans Group Ltd is −$1.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tinybeans Group Ltd (TNY) hold?
Tinybeans Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, $1.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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