Shibaura Machine Co (TOA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Shibaura Machine Co €9.05, price €27.00, upside -66.5%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
In Frankfurt, only 1 of the last 20 trading days (30 days) had any turnover. On the other days the price is an indicative quote without trading, so we do not list this stock in the radar. It stays reachable through search.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €15.03 – €30.09 · fair‑value band €6.38 – €11.59 · the €27.00 price screens above the €9.05 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Shibaura Machine Co.,Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of various machines in Japan and internationally. It operates through three segments: Molding Machinery, Machine Tools, and Control Systems.
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Shibaura Machine Co.,Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of various machines in Japan and internationally. It operates through three segments: Molding Machinery, Machine Tools, and Control Systems. The company offers injection molding machines, die-casting machines, extrusion machines, nano processing systems, machine tools, Board Type PLC, servo motors, industrial robots, and IoT+m products, as well as provides additive manufacturing systems and engineering solutions. It also provides high precision machine tools, micro pattern imprinting machines, high precision glass mold press machines, and electronic control system. In addition, the company provides machine tools that include double column type machining centers, horizontal boring machines, vertical lathes, and other machine tools. Furthur, it is involved in the castings, heat treatment, and machining work activities. The company was formerly known as Toshiba Machine Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Shibaura Machine Co.,Ltd. in April 2020. Shibaura Machine Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Shibaura Machine Co (TOA) currently trades at €27.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €9.05, 66.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of €18.90 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the €27.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €3.46, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €6.38 (bear) to €11.59 (bull), the price of €27.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Shibaura Machine Co reported revenue of ¥133B in FY2026 versus ¥108B in FY2022, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.0B in FY2026, compounding −27.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €638M · P/E ratio 112.5 · P/S ratio 0.87 · EPS (TTM) €0.2400 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 0.8% · Return on equity 0.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −66%, TOA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €6.38Fair Value €9.05Bull €11.59
Price €27.00 · Upside -66.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.37/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−21.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.3% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−25.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−28.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−28.3% vs −5.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 3%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 790 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−66.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1.0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−3.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−31.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.9% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)112.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)57· sector 26
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shibaura Machine Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOA.F
Frequently asked questions
Is Shibaura Machine Co (TOA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €9.05 versus a price of €27.00, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TOA?
Our model-based fair value for Shibaura Machine Co is €9.05 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €27.00.
What is the quality score of TOA?
Shibaura Machine Co has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shibaura Machine Co (TOA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €9.05 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario €6.38, optimistic scenario €11.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shibaura Machine Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €9.05, about −66% upside versus a price of €27.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €6.38, optimistic scenario €11.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shibaura Machine Co (TOA)?
Shibaura Machine Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥123B (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does Shibaura Machine Co pay a dividend?
Shibaura Machine Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.85% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shibaura Machine Co (TOA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shibaura Machine Co it is €9.05 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of €27.00. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shibaura Machine Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, TOA trades above its calculated fair value: price €27.00, fair value €9.05, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€27.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€9.05). For Shibaura Machine Co the two are €17.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shibaura Machine Co worth?
The market values Shibaura Machine Co at about €638M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is €27.00; our models calculate a fair value of €9.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOA?
Our models span a range for Shibaura Machine Co: cautious scenario €6.38, base €9.05, optimistic €11.59 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price €27.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOA?
Shibaura Machine Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 112.5 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €9.05 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shibaura Machine Co (TOA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shibaura Machine Co (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 0.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOA from its 52-week high?
Shibaura Machine Co trades at €27.00, at its 52-week high of €27.00 and 40% above the low of €19.24 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €9.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shibaura Machine Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shibaura Machine Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price €27.00, calculated fair value €9.05 (−66%), Quality Score 45/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOA calculated?
We run Shibaura Machine Co through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €9.05, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Shibaura Machine Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shibaura Machine Co (TOA)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was €27.00. Our model-based fair value is €9.05, about −66% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shibaura Machine Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€11.59). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€6.38 to €11.59) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Shibaura Machine Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Shibaura Machine Co (TOA)?
The market capitalisation of Shibaura Machine Co is €638M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shibaura Machine Co (TOA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shibaura Machine Co is 0.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shibaura Machine Co (TOA)?
Earnings per share at Shibaura Machine Co are €0.2400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 112.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shibaura Machine Co (TOA)?
The dividend yield of Shibaura Machine Co is 2.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shibaura Machine Co (TOA)?
The net margin of Shibaura Machine Co is 0.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shibaura Machine Co (TOA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shibaura Machine Co is 0.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shibaura Machine Co (TOA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shibaura Machine Co is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shibaura Machine Co (TOA)?
The operating margin of Shibaura Machine Co is −3.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shibaura Machine Co (TOA)?
Revenue at Shibaura Machine Co is growing −31.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shibaura Machine Co (TOA)?
Earnings per share at Shibaura Machine Co are growing −95.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shibaura Machine Co (TOA) generate?
The free cash flow of Shibaura Machine Co is −¥11.3B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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