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TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT IDR 164, price IDR 525, upside -68.8%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Energy · ID · ISIN ID1000123409

TE Thin data Sep 24, 2026

TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT

TOBA · JK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value 163.78 IDR · Strongly overvalued (−69%)
!Quality 30/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −18.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -29.2% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/12)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

1,601 IDR 185.65 IDR Fair Value 163.78 IDR Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 185.65 IDR – 1,601 IDR · fair‑value band 122.23 IDR – 244.44 IDR · the 525.00 IDR price screens above the 163.78 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk, through its subsidiaries, invests in the coal mining and trading, palm oil plantation, independent power producer, waste management, renewable energy, and wholesale and retail of vehicles in Indonesia and internationally.

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PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk, through its subsidiaries, invests in the coal mining and trading, palm oil plantation, independent power producer, waste management, renewable energy, and wholesale and retail of vehicles in Indonesia and internationally. It provides consulting management; and hazardous, general, and electronic waste management services, as well as engages in the treatment and disposal of waste. PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk was formerly known as PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk and changed its name to PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk in September 2022. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk operates as a subsidiary of Highland Strategic Holdings Pte .Ltd.

Stock analysis

TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA) currently trades at 525.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 163.78 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 220.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 81.52 IDR per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the 525.00 IDR price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 40.76 IDR, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 122.23 IDR (bear) to 244.44 IDR (bull), the price of 525.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.

TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT reported revenue of $361M in FY2025 versus $463M in FY2021, a compound −6.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$160M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 4.3T IDR (≈ $434M) · EPS (TTM) −241.33 IDR · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin −44.4% · Return on equity −43.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1% · Operating margin −3.8% · Revenue (TTM) $381M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −69%, TOBA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 122.23 IDR Fair Value 163.78 IDR Bull 244.44 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM 40.76 IDR 40.76 IDR 40.76 IDR 69
DDM Multi-Stage 40.76 IDR 40.76 IDR 40.76 IDR 67
EV/EBITDA n/a n/a 40.76 IDR 62
All 4 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 40.76 IDR 40.76 IDR 40.76 IDR 69
DDM Multi-Stage 40.76 IDR 40.76 IDR 40.76 IDR 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA n/a n/a 40.76 IDR 62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 40.76 IDR 81.52 IDR 81.52 IDR 55

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34

Profitability 6
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 6
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 6
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 80
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 42
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 72
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
19.2% (2020) → −11.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TOBA screens 221% overvalued. Compare with China Shenhua Energy Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 100 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −69% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −29% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 21% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.38× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.23× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.14× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 14.6× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 4
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)31 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 55

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 ¥47.21 ¥31.96 −32%
PT Bayan Resources Tbk., BYAN 12,300 IDR 4,674 IDR −62%
Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT ₹2,993 ₹891.11 −70%
Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 ¥25.68 ¥28.25 +10%
Yankuang Energy Group 600188 ¥19.77 ¥12.45 −37%
Coal India Limited COALINDIA ₹424.55 ₹464.01 +9%
China Coal Energy Company 601898 ¥14.23 ¥14.62 +3%
PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk, DSSA 1,070 IDR 355.01 IDR −67%
Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 ¥28.24 ¥20.48 −27%
Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 ¥15.38 ¥9.97 −35%

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TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT · Fair Value
163.78 IDR −221%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOBA

Frequently asked questions

Is TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 163.78 IDR versus a price of 525.00 IDR, about −69% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TOBA?
Our model-based fair value for TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is 163.78 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 525.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of TOBA?
TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 163.78 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario 122.23 IDR, optimistic scenario 244.44 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 163.78 IDR, about −69% upside versus a price of 525.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 122.23 IDR, optimistic scenario 244.44 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $381M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT pay a dividend?
TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.00% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT it is 163.78 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 525.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TOBA trades above its calculated fair value: price 525.00 IDR, fair value 163.78 IDR, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOBA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (525.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (163.78 IDR). For TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT the two are 361.22 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT worth?
The market values TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT at about 4.3T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 525.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 163.78 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOBA?
Our models span a range for TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT: cautious scenario 122.23 IDR, base 163.78 IDR, optimistic 244.44 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 525.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
Balance-sheet figures for TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −43.1%, debt of 1.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOBA from its 52-week high?
TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT trades at 525.00 IDR, about 62% below its 52-week high of 1,395 IDR and 67% above the low of 314.00 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 163.78 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, PT Bayan Resources Tbk.,, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 525.00 IDR, calculated fair value 163.78 IDR (−69%), Quality Score 30/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOBA calculated?
We run TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 163.78 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 525.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 163.78 IDR, about −69% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (244.44 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (122.23 IDR to 244.44 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA) come from?
Earnings per share at TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT grew +6.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.8 %, EBIT margin +4.4 %, tax rate +3.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT

How large is the market capitalisation of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
The market capitalisation of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is 4.3T IDR (≈ $434M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
Earnings per share at TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT are −241.33 IDR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
The dividend yield of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is 0.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
The net margin of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is −44.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is −43.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
The operating margin of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is −3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
Revenue at TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is growing +20.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −17.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
Earnings per share at TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT are growing +33.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA) generate?
The free cash flow of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is −$41.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA) carry?
The net debt of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is $291M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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