TOBA Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · ID · Market cap 3.8T IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from 718.00 IDR to 715.60 IDR (−0.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +29.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 40% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (30/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (357.80 IDR to 715.60 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 185.65 IDR – 1,601 IDR · fair‑value band 357.80 IDR – 715.60 IDR · the 510.00 IDR price screens below the 715.60 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
TOBA (TOBA) currently trades at 510.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 715.60 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 40.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, TOBA generated revenue of 381M IDR at a net margin of -29.2%. Revenue grew 20.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -43.1%. Net debt stands at 291M IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 357.80 IDR (bear case) to 715.60 IDR (bull case); at 510.00 IDR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 67% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at 40%, TOBA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (357.80 IDR) versus Dividend Discount (178.90 IDR). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk, through its subsidiaries, invests in the coal mining and trading, palm oil plantation, independent power producer, waste management, renewable energy, and wholesale and retail of vehicles in Indonesia and internationally.
Full company description
PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk, through its subsidiaries, invests in the coal mining and trading, palm oil plantation, independent power producer, waste management, renewable energy, and wholesale and retail of vehicles in Indonesia and internationally. It provides consulting management; and hazardous, general, and electronic waste management services, as well as engages in the treatment and disposal of waste. PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk was formerly known as PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk and changed its name to PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk in September 2022. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk operates as a subsidiary of Highland Strategic Holdings Pte .Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TOBA reported revenue of 361M IDR in FY2025 versus 463M IDR in FY2021, a compound −6.0%/yr. Reported net income was −160M IDR in FY2025.
of which total revenue +3.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Thermal Coal · 101 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 | ¥42.65 | ¥34.97 | -18% |
| Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT | ₹3,157 | ₹901.17 | -71% |
| Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 | ¥24.30 | ¥23.90 | -2% |
| Yankuang Energy Group 600188 | ¥20.23 | ¥13.24 | -35% |
| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹427.65 | ₹464.01 | +9% |
| China Coal Energy Company 601898 | ¥12.54 | ¥13.97 | +11% |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥25.13 | ¥21.99 | -12% |
| Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 | ¥16.26 | ¥7.20 | -56% |
| PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk, ADRO | 2,490 IDR | 3,220 IDR | +29% |
| PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk, through its subsidiaries, CUAN | 630.00 IDR | 360.72 IDR | -43% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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