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TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT stock IDR 165, price IDR 362, that is 54.5% below the price, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Energy ID · ISIN ID1000123409

TE TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT logo Thin data Nov 8, 2026

TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT

TOBA · JK
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 55% below what the stock costs today.

Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −18.9 %/yr in USD)
Moderate debt
Revenue last quarter 14% below a year ago.
Fair value 164.64 IDR · Strongly overvalued
Quality 32/100
Loss-making · -18.1% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/12)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

1,601 IDR 185.65 IDR Fair Value 164.64 IDR Jun 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 185.65 IDR – 1,601 IDR · fair‑value band 122.86 IDR – 245.72 IDR · the 362.00 IDR price screens above the 164.64 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk, through its subsidiaries, invests in the coal mining and trading, palm oil plantation, independent power producer, waste management, renewable energy, and wholesale and retail of vehicles in Indonesia and internationally.

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It provides consulting management; and hazardous, general, and electronic waste management services, as well as engages in the treatment and disposal of waste. PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk was formerly known as PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk and changed its name to PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk in September 2022.

The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk operates as a subsidiary of Highland Strategic Holdings Pte .Ltd.

Stock analysis

TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA) currently trades at 362.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 164.64 IDR, 55% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: 122.86 IDR (bear) to 245.72 IDR (bull), the price of 362.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.

TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT reported revenue of $361M in FY2025 versus $463M in FY2021, a compound −6.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$160M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 3.0T IDR (≈ $167M) Micro · EPS (TTM) −148.57 IDR · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin −44.4% · Return on equity −34.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin −0.8% · Revenue (TTM) $367M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −55%, TOBA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 122.86 IDR Fair Value 164.64 IDR Bull 245.72 IDR
Price 362.00 IDR · Downside -54.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) 61.09 IDR 81.86 IDR 122.18 IDR 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 61.09 IDR 81.86 IDR 122.18 IDR 54

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 6
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 6
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 6
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 46
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 80
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 40
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 5
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 4
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 74
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
19.2% (2020) → −11.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TOBA screens overvalued: fair value 55% below the price. Compare with China Shenhua Energy Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 82 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −54.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −20.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −18.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −0.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −13.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 5.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.38× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.86× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 0.46× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.1× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 60
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)31 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)99 · sector 64

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Coal India Limited COALINDIA ₹400.00 ₹464.01 +16% vs TOBA
China Coal Energy Company 601898 ¥12.91 ¥14.62 +13% vs TOBA
Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 ¥25.85 ¥28.44 +10% vs TOBA
PT Bayan Resources Tbk., BYAN 8,625 IDR 9,488 IDR +10% vs TOBA
Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 ¥27.34 ¥20.56 −25% vs TOBA
Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 ¥13.43 ¥9.23 −31% vs TOBA
China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 ¥48.54 ¥31.96 −34% vs TOBA
Yankuang Energy Group 600188 ¥16.76 ¥9.22 −45% vs TOBA
PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk, DSSA 600.00 IDR 244.59 IDR −59% vs TOBA
Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT ₹2,746 ₹891.11 −68% vs TOBA

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TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOBA

Frequently asked questions

Is TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 164.64 IDR versus a price of 362.00 IDR, about 55% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TOBA?
Our model-based fair value for TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is 164.64 IDR (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 362.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of TOBA?
TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 164.64 IDR (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario 122.86 IDR, optimistic scenario 245.72 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 164.64 IDR, about 55% lower versus a price of 362.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 122.86 IDR, optimistic scenario 245.72 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $367M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT pay a dividend?
TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT currently shows a dividend yield of 4.97% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT pays a dividend of 18.00 IDR per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 27, 2026. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT it is 164.64 IDR per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of 362.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, TOBA trades above its calculated fair value: price 362.00 IDR, fair value 164.64 IDR, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOBA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (362.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (164.64 IDR). For TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT the two are 197.36 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT worth?
The market values TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT at about 3.0T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is 362.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 164.64 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOBA?
Our models span a range for TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT: cautious scenario 122.86 IDR, base 164.64 IDR, optimistic 245.72 IDR per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price 362.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
Balance-sheet figures for TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −34.3%, debt of 1.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOBA from its 52-week high?
TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT trades at 362.00 IDR, about 61% below its 52-week high of 930.30 IDR and 15% above the low of 314.00 IDR (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 164.64 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, China Coal Energy Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price 362.00 IDR, calculated fair value 164.64 IDR (−55%), Quality Score 32/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOBA calculated?
We run TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 164.64 IDR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 362.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 164.64 IDR, about 55% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (245.72 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (122.86 IDR to 245.72 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA) come from?
Earnings per share at TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT grew +6.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.8 %, EBIT margin +4.4 %, tax rate +3.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT

How large is the market capitalisation of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
The market capitalisation of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is 3.0T IDR (≈ $167M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
Earnings per share at TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT are −148.57 IDR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
The dividend yield of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is 5.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
The net margin of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is −44.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is −34.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
The operating margin of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is −0.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
Revenue at TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is growing −13.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −17.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA)?
Earnings per share at TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT are growing +33.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA) generate?
The free cash flow of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is −$41.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT (TOBA) carry?
The net debt of TBS Energi Utama Tbk PT is $291M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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