Thai Oil Public Company (TOIPY) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $3.6B
Thai Oil Public Company
TOIPY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 24, 2026, revised from $27.42 to $24.53 (−10.6%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +24.0% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 37% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($18.39). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.42 – $21.53 · fair‑value band $18.39 – $30.65 · the $17.85 price screens below the $24.53 fair value. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Thai Oil Public Company (TOIPY) currently trades at $17.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.53, implying the stock looks roughly 37.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Thai Oil Public Company generated revenue of $347B at a net margin of 8.8%. Revenue grew 14.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.5%. Net debt stands at $71.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $18.39 (bear case) to $30.65 (bull case); at $17.85, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at 37%, TOIPY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($30.77) versus Earnings-Based ($3.47). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Thai Oil Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the oil refining and distributions, petrochemicals, lube base oil, and other businesses in Thailand, Indonesia, and internationally. It operates through Oil Refinery, Lube Base Oil Refinery, Aromatics and LAB, Power Generation, Solvent, Ethanol, Olefins, and Others segments.
Full company description
Thai Oil Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the oil refining and distributions, petrochemicals, lube base oil, and other businesses in Thailand, Indonesia, and internationally. It operates through Oil Refinery, Lube Base Oil Refinery, Aromatics and LAB, Power Generation, Solvent, Ethanol, Olefins, and Others segments. The company offers refined fuels, including gasoline, diesel/gas oil, jet fuel, kerosene, fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas; and lube base oil, bitumen/asphalt, by-products, and special products, such as treated distillate aromatics extract and slack wax. It also provides petrochemicals comprising paraxylene, benzene, toluene, and mixed xylenes; linear alkyl benzene, heavy alkyl benzene, and molex raffinates; and polyethylene and polypropylene resins, styrene monomer, butadiene, and olefins. In addition, the company operates natural gas-fired co-generation power plants that generate and distribute electricity, steam, industrial water, and public utilities; and develops, invests, and operates power businesses. Further, it is involved in the manufacturing and distribution of solvents and chemicals; investments in venture capital funds and startup businesses; production of ethanol; management of human resources; provision of technical support and treasury advice; design, development, and maintenance of digital services and systems; social enterprise operation support; and pipeline transportation of refined petroleum products. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Thai Oil Public Company reported revenue of $394B in FY2025 versus $336B in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was $14.6B in FY2025, compounding +3.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,293 | ₹835.66 | -35% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $309.65 | $127.32 | -59% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $283.74 | $135.80 | -52% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $196.16 | $101.04 | -48% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.10 | €4.07 | -87% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 81.30 TWD | 16.68 TWD | -79% |
| Indian Oil Corporation IOC | ₹138.96 | ₹417.35 | +200% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $88.59 | $48.90 | -45% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹315.55 | ₹846.81 | +168% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 121,400 KRW | 58,865 KRW | -52% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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