Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Thai Oil PCL $24.93, price $17.85, upside +39.7%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.42 – $21.53 · fair‑value band $18.70 – $31.17 · the $17.85 price screens below the $24.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Thai Oil Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the oil refining and distributions, petrochemicals, lube base oil, and other businesses in Thailand, Indonesia, and internationally. It operates through Oil Refinery, Lube Base Oil Refinery, Aromatics and LAB, Power Generation, Solvent, Ethanol, Olefins, and Others segments.
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Thai Oil Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the oil refining and distributions, petrochemicals, lube base oil, and other businesses in Thailand, Indonesia, and internationally. It operates through Oil Refinery, Lube Base Oil Refinery, Aromatics and LAB, Power Generation, Solvent, Ethanol, Olefins, and Others segments. The company offers refined fuels, including gasoline, diesel/gas oil, jet fuel, kerosene, fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas; and lube base oil, bitumen/asphalt, by-products, and special products, such as treated distillate aromatics extract and slack wax. It also provides petrochemicals comprising paraxylene, benzene, toluene, and mixed xylenes; linear alkyl benzene, heavy alkyl benzene, and molex raffinates; and polyethylene and polypropylene resins, styrene monomer, butadiene, and olefins. In addition, the company operates natural gas-fired co-generation power plants that generate and distribute electricity, steam, industrial water, and public utilities; and develops, invests, and operates power businesses. Further, it is involved in the manufacturing and distribution of solvents and chemicals; investments in venture capital funds and startup businesses; production of ethanol; management of human resources; provision of technical support and treasury advice; design, development, and maintenance of digital services and systems; social enterprise operation support; and pipeline transportation of refined petroleum products. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Stock analysis
Thai Oil PCL ADR (TOIPY) currently trades at $17.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.93, implying the stock looks roughly 28.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $33.48 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the $17.85 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $3.54, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $18.70 (bear) to $31.17 (bull), the price of $17.85 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Thai Oil PCL ADR reported revenue of 394B THB in FY2025 versus 336B THB in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was 14.6B THB in FY2025, compounding +3.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.0B · P/E ratio 3.4 · P/S ratio 0.13 · EPS (TTM) $4.19 · Dividend yield 10.1% · Net margin 3.7% · Return on equity 15.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −61% fair-value upside, at 40%, TOIPY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $18.70Fair Value $24.93Bull $31.17
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.75 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−13.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+17.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7% vs −2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−17.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in THB, Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −18.2% a year for the price and −0.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 14/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+40% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)24% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)10.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.65× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
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Is Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $24.93 versus a price of $17.85, about +40% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TOIPY?
Our model-based fair value for Thai Oil PCL ADR is $24.93 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.85.
What is the quality score of TOIPY?
Thai Oil PCL ADR has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $24.93 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.70, optimistic scenario $31.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thai Oil PCL ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $24.93, about +40% upside versus a price of $17.85 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $18.70, optimistic scenario $31.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY)?
Thai Oil PCL ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 347B THB (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Thai Oil PCL ADR pay a dividend?
Thai Oil PCL ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.08% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Thai Oil PCL ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -17.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TOIPY use?
Our models discount Thai Oil PCL ADR at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Thai Oil PCL ADR that is -17.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Thai Oil PCL ADR grew +10.2 % a year. The price currently implies -17.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Thai Oil PCL ADR (-17.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 28.80 %: that much free cash flow Thai Oil PCL ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thai Oil PCL ADR it is $24.93 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $17.85. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Thai Oil PCL ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TOIPY trades below its calculated fair value: price $17.85, fair value $24.93, a gap of about +40% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOIPY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($24.93). For Thai Oil PCL ADR the two are $7.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thai Oil PCL ADR worth?
The market values Thai Oil PCL ADR at about $4.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $17.85; our models calculate a fair value of $24.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOIPY?
Our models span a range for Thai Oil PCL ADR: cautious scenario $18.70, base $24.93, optimistic $31.17 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $17.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOIPY?
Thai Oil PCL ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $24.93 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 0.8, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 4.5.
What is the PEG ratio of TOIPY?
The PEG ratio of Thai Oil PCL ADR is 0.30 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Thai Oil PCL ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 15.5%, debt of 0.65 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOIPY from its 52-week high?
Thai Oil PCL ADR trades at $17.85, about 7% below its 52-week high of $16.65 and 81% above the low of $9.86 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $24.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thai Oil PCL ADR?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thai Oil PCL ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $17.85, calculated fair value $24.93 (+40%), Quality Score 56/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOIPY calculated?
We run Thai Oil PCL ADR through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $24.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Thai Oil PCL ADR currently trades 40 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $17.85. Our model-based fair value is $24.93, about +40% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thai Oil PCL ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($18.70). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY) come from?
Earnings per share at Thai Oil PCL ADR grew −2.5 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.9 %, EBIT margin −7.3 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Thai Oil PCL ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY)?
The market capitalisation of Thai Oil PCL ADR is $4.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thai Oil PCL ADR is 0.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY)?
Earnings per share at Thai Oil PCL ADR are $4.19 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY)?
The dividend yield of Thai Oil PCL ADR is 10.1% (payout 43.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY)?
The net margin of Thai Oil PCL ADR is 3.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thai Oil PCL ADR is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thai Oil PCL ADR is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY)?
The operating margin of Thai Oil PCL ADR is 24.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY)?
Revenue at Thai Oil PCL ADR is growing +14.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY)?
Earnings per share at Thai Oil PCL ADR are growing +456% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Thai Oil PCL (TOIPY) carry?
The net debt of Thai Oil PCL ADR is 71.1B THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026