Toho Holdings (TON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Toho Holdings stock €22.46, price €22.23, upside +1.1%, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €11.71 – €31.87 · fair‑value band €17.20 – €28.78 · the €22.23 price screens below the €22.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Toho Holdings Co., Ltd. engages in the wholesale distribution of pharmaceutical products in Japan. It operates in four segments: Pharmaceutical Wholesale Business, Dispensing Pharmacy Business, Pharmaceutical Manufacturing and Sales Business, and Other Peripheral Businesses.
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The company sells pharmaceuticals, narcotics, reagents, and medical devices to hospitals, clinics, and dispensing pharmacies.
It is also involved in the management of the dispensing pharmacies business; operates health insurance pharmacy; provision of support home medical care services; peripheral businesses; core system operations; and real estate agency business.
In addition, the company manufacture and sell pharmaceuticals; sells generic drugs; and manufactures injection drugs on consignment.
Further, it provides support for various aspects of healthcare, including the development and provision of customer support systems that help medical institutions improve operational efficiency, opening support, and in-house logistics at medical institutions.
Additionally, the company engages in the site management organization business; information processing business; software development and sales, corporate and medical management consulting business; internet business related to pharmaceuticals; general motor truck transportation business; and manufacturing and sales of hygienic materials.
The company was incorporated in 1948 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Toho Holdings (TON) currently trades at €22.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €22.46, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €32.36 per share, and 12 of the 23 models we run sit above the €22.23 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €4.64, and 11 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €17.20 (bear) to €28.78 (bull), the price of €22.23 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Toho Holdings reported revenue of ¥1.6T in FY2026 versus ¥1.3T in FY2022, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥17.3B in FY2026, compounding +6.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €1.4B Small · P/E ratio 16.2 · EPS (TTM) €1.37 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity 6.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 0.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 25 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 33% fair-value upside, at 1%, TON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€17.20Fair Value €22.46Bull€28.78
Price €22.23 · Upside +1.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.8370 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.64/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.7% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+11.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.1% vs 2.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 1%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.3% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Distribution · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+1.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.3% · Below median
Return on assets2.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Toho Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TON
Frequently asked questions
Is Toho Holdings (TON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €22.46 versus a price of €22.23, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TON?
Our model-based fair value for Toho Holdings is €22.46 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €22.23.
What is the quality score of TON?
Toho Holdings has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Toho Holdings (TON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €22.46 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario €17.20, optimistic scenario €28.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Toho Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €22.46, about +1% upside versus a price of €22.23 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €17.20, optimistic scenario €28.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Toho Holdings (TON)?
Toho Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.6T (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Toho Holdings pay a dividend?
Toho Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of 4.52% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Toho Holdings (TON) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Toho Holdings has a dividend yield of 4.5%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2010. The payout ratio is 31.4% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.79 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Toho Holdings (TON)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Toho Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +10.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.1 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TON use?
Our models discount Toho Holdings at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Toho Holdings that is +10.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Toho Holdings (TON) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Toho Holdings grew +5.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +10.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Toho Holdings (TON) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Toho Holdings (+10.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Toho Holdings (TON)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.84 %: that much free cash flow Toho Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Toho Holdings (TON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Toho Holdings it is €22.46 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of €22.23. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Toho Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, TON trades below its calculated fair value: price €22.23, fair value €22.46, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TON?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€22.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€22.46). For Toho Holdings the two are €0.2342 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Toho Holdings worth?
The market values Toho Holdings at about €1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is €22.23; our models calculate a fair value of €22.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TON?
Our models span a range for Toho Holdings: cautious scenario €17.20, base €22.46, optimistic €28.78 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price €22.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TON?
Toho Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €22.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 7.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Toho Holdings (TON)?
Balance-sheet figures for Toho Holdings (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 6.3%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TON from its 52-week high?
Toho Holdings trades at €22.23, about 15% below its 52-week high of €26.19 and 15% above the low of €19.35 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €22.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Toho Holdings?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value McKesson Corporation, Cencora, Inc, Cardinal Health, Inc, Henry Schein, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Toho Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price €22.23, calculated fair value €22.46 (+1%), Quality Score 55/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TON calculated?
We run Toho Holdings through 23 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €22.46 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Toho Holdings currently trades 1% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Toho Holdings (TON)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was €22.23. Our model-based fair value is €22.46, about +1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Toho Holdings right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Toho Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Toho Holdings (TON)?
The market capitalisation of Toho Holdings is €1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Toho Holdings (TON)?
Earnings per share at Toho Holdings are €1.37 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Toho Holdings (TON)?
The dividend yield of Toho Holdings is 4.5% (payout 73.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Toho Holdings (TON)?
The net margin of Toho Holdings is 1.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Toho Holdings (TON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Toho Holdings is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Toho Holdings (TON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Toho Holdings is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Toho Holdings (TON)?
The operating margin of Toho Holdings is 0.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Toho Holdings (TON)?
Revenue at Toho Holdings is growing +5.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Toho Holdings (TON)?
Earnings per share at Toho Holdings are growing −27.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026