Toto Ltd (TOTDY) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $9.5B
Toto Ltd
TOTDY · US
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $30.47 to $30.72 (+0.8%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price −14.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 23% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($21.88 to $41.71) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $22.05 – $57.82 · fair‑value band $21.88 – $41.71 · the $39.70 price screens above the $30.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Toto Ltd (TOTDY) currently trades at $39.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $30.72, implying the stock looks roughly 22.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Toto Ltd generated revenue of $737B at a net margin of 5.5%. Revenue grew 4.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $65.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $21.88 (bear case) to $41.71 (bull case); at $39.70, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -57% fair-value upside, at -23%, TOTDY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($33.16) versus Asset-Based ($13.50). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
TOTO LTD. manufactures and sells bathroom and plumbing fixtures worldwide. The company provides sanitary ware comprising toilet basins, urinals, sinks, washbasins, etc.; system toilets, toilet seats, plumbing accessories, bathtubs, and unit bathrooms; and fittings, such as various faucets, drain fittings, etc.
Full company description
TOTO LTD. manufactures and sells bathroom and plumbing fixtures worldwide. The company provides sanitary ware comprising toilet basins, urinals, sinks, washbasins, etc.; system toilets, toilet seats, plumbing accessories, bathtubs, and unit bathrooms; and fittings, such as various faucets, drain fittings, etc. It also offers modular kitchens, bathroom vanity units, marbright artificial marble counters, and welfare equipment; bathroom ventilation, heating, and drying systems; green building materials, such as tiles, ceramic slabs, etc.; and ceramics. The company was formerly known as TOTO Kiki Ltd. and changed its name to TOTO LTD. in 2007. TOTO LTD. was incorporated in 1917 and is headquartered in Kitakyushu, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Toto Ltd reported revenue of $782B in FY2026 versus $645B in FY2022, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was $42.7B in FY2026, compounding +1.6%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +3.0 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TOTDY screens 23% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Toto Fully Resumes Bathroom Orders As Supply Pressure Eases
- TOTO (TSE:5332) Is Up 20.2% After Strong FY2026 Earnings And Higher Dividend Potential - What's Changed
- Toto Suspends Bathroom Orders As Shares Drop 7.2% On Supply Crunch
- Activist Sees 55% Upside in Toto on AI Memory Push
Peer Group
Building Products & Equipment · 250 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trane Technologies plc TT | $480.20 | $208.50 | -57% |
| Johnson Controls International plc JCI | $152.79 | $44.75 | -71% |
| Carrier Global Corporation CARR | $63.08 | $16.85 | -73% |
| Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO | €84.24 | €97.97 | +16% |
| PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC | 1,405 IDR | 179.76 IDR | -87% |
| NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB | kr 38.59 | kr 25.37 | -34% |
| Rockwool A/S ROCKA | kr 232.00 | kr 232.55 | +0% |
| Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited 000786 | ¥18.73 | ¥31.73 | +69% |
| Moon Environment Technology Co 000811 | ¥42.22 | ¥11.94 | -72% |
| The Supreme Industries Limited SUPREMEIND | ₹3,460 | ₹1,376 | -60% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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