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Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Temple & Webster Group $2.87, price $3.07, upside -6.5%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Temple & Webster Group
TPLWF · USNeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $2.87 · Fairly valued (−6.5%)
✓Quality 65/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +27.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 31/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.19 – $16.25 · fair‑value band $2.01 – $3.73 · the $3.07 price screens above the $2.87 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Temple & Webster Group Ltd engages in the online retail of furniture, homewares, and home improvement products through its online platform in Australia. It also provides procurement, styling, specialized delivery, and installation services. Temple & Webster Group Ltd was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in St Peters, Australia.
Stock analysis
Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF) currently trades at $3.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.87, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.0%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $4.42 per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the $3.07 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.5900, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $2.01 (bear) to $3.73 (bull), the price of $3.07 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Temple & Webster Group reported revenue of A$601M in FY2025 versus A$326M in FY2021, a compound +16.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$11.3M in FY2025, compounding −5.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $478M · P/E ratio 76.8 · P/S ratio 1.44 · EPS (TTM) $0.0400 · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7% · Operating margin 2.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 77% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at −7%, TPLWF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.01
Fair Value $2.87
Bull $3.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0400 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$4.50
$6.17
$11.16
78
Growth DCF
$4.27
$6.75
$10.65
77
5Y EBITDA Exit
$2.60
$3.38
$4.90
75
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$4.50
$6.17
$11.16
78
Owner Earnings
$2.00
$3.23
$5.50
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$2.45
$3.08
$4.36
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
$2.60
$3.38
$4.90
75
5Y P/E Exit
$2.80
$4.42
$6.51
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$3.13
$4.62
$5.21
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
$3.25
$4.92
$7.43
68
10Y P/E Exit
$3.38
$5.31
$8.18
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.4600
$3.20
$4.49
63
Lynch FV
$1.44
$2.06
$2.68
61
PEG = 1.0
$1.44
$2.06
$2.68
57
EPV
$1.19
$1.23
$1.27
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$1.11
$1.48
$1.86
63
P/S Multiple
$0.8600
$1.15
$1.43
58
P/B Multiple
$0.8600
$1.15
$1.43
55
EV/EBIT
$1.70
$1.98
$2.26
66
EV/EBITDA
$1.69
$1.96
$2.24
67
EV/Revenue
$1.43
$1.67
$1.91
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.4400
$0.5900
$0.8800
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$4.27
$6.75
$10.65
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$2.53
$3.41
$5.17
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.6900
$0.7100
$0.7800
71
ROIC Compounder
$1.21
$1.29
$1.37
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$1.97
$2.81
$3.65
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
65/100
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 5
Profitability
59
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
96
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
49
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
9
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
6
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
83
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +36.8% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.3%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+5.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 2%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.2% a year for the price and +3.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+7.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+6.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.3%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 210 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD | C$78.50 | C$106.10 | +35% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $231.03 | $164.11 | −29% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $547.89 | $650.56 | +19% |
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $606.24 | $405.93 | −33% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $89.91 | $94.70 | +5% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.73 | $36.59 | +15% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥51.46 | ¥40.40 | −21% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $134.70 | $201.62 | +50% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $222.60 | $184.99 | −17% |
| GameStop Corp GME | $23.39 | $13.85 | −41% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.87 versus a price of $3.07, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TPLWF?
Our model-based fair value for Temple & Webster Group is $2.87 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.07.
What is the quality score of TPLWF?
Temple & Webster Group has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.87 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.01, optimistic scenario $3.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Temple & Webster Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.87, about −7% upside versus a price of $3.07 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $2.01, optimistic scenario $3.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF)?
Temple & Webster Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$663M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Temple & Webster Group would have to grow free cash flow by +6.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TPLWF use?
Our models discount Temple & Webster Group at 12.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.58, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Temple & Webster Group that is +6.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Temple & Webster Group grew +27.8 % a year. The price currently implies +6.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Temple & Webster Group (+6.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.53 %: that much free cash flow Temple & Webster Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Temple & Webster Group it is $2.87 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $3.07. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Temple & Webster Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TPLWF trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.07, fair value $2.87, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TPLWF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.87). For Temple & Webster Group the two are $0.2000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Temple & Webster Group worth?
The market values Temple & Webster Group at about $478M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $3.07; our models calculate a fair value of $2.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TPLWF?
Our models span a range for Temple & Webster Group: cautious scenario $2.01, base $2.87, optimistic $3.73 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $3.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TPLWF?
Temple & Webster Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 76.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.87 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.2, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 39.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Temple & Webster Group (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TPLWF from its 52-week high?
Temple & Webster Group trades at $3.07, about 77% below its 52-week high of $13.53 and 4% above the low of $2.95 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Temple & Webster Group?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Temple & Webster Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $3.07, calculated fair value $2.87 (−7%), Quality Score 65/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TPLWF calculated?
We run Temple & Webster Group through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.87, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Temple & Webster Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $3.07. Our model-based fair value is $2.87, about −7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Temple & Webster Group right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($2.01 to $3.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Temple & Webster Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF)?
The market capitalisation of Temple & Webster Group is $478M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Temple & Webster Group is 1.44 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF)?
Earnings per share at Temple & Webster Group are $0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 76.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF)?
The net margin of Temple & Webster Group is 1.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Temple & Webster Group is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Temple & Webster Group is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF)?
The operating margin of Temple & Webster Group is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF)?
Revenue at Temple & Webster Group is growing +19.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Temple & Webster Group (TPLWF)?
Earnings per share at Temple & Webster Group are growing −36.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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