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Traton SE (TRATF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Traton SE $60.35, price $39.70, upside +52.0%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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TS
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Traton SE
TRATF · USCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $60.35 · Strongly undervalued (+52.0%)
!Quality 36/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +14.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.0% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!2.3% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Narrow moat 36/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.30 – $46.07 · fair‑value band $44.39 – $84.63 · the $39.70 price screens below the $60.35 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Traton SE, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells commercial vehicles in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States of America, rest of North America, Brazil, rest of South America, and internationally.
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Traton SE, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells commercial vehicles in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States of America, rest of North America, Brazil, rest of South America, and internationally. It operates through Scania Vehicles and Services; MAN Truck & Bus; International Motors; Volkswagen Truck & Bus; and TRATON Financial Services segments. The company offers heavy-duty trucks; light commercial options and durable construction vehicles; school buses under the IC Bus brand; commercial buses; vans, trucks, and buses; and diesel and gas engines, as well as services for passenger and freight transport. It provides a cloud-based platform for the transport and logistics industry under the RIO brand; after-sales services; and custom digital solutions, as well as operates charging stations for commercial vehicles. The company offers its products and services under the MAN, Scania, International, and Volkswagen Truck & Bus brands. In addition, it finances, insures, and leases commercial vehicles. The company was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany. Traton SE is a subsidiary of Volkswagen International Luxemburg S.A.
Stock analysis
Traton SE (TRATF) currently trades at $39.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $60.35, implying the stock looks roughly 34.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $65.10 per share, and 9 of the 15 models we run sit above the $39.70 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $23.43, and 6 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $44.39 (bear) to $84.63 (bull), the price of $39.70 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Traton SE reported revenue of €44.0B in FY2025 versus €30.6B in FY2021, a compound +9.5%/yr. Reported net income was €1.5B in FY2025, compounding +35.6%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $19.8B · P/E ratio 13.1 · P/S ratio 0.46 · EPS (TTM) $2.99 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 3.5% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 52%, TRATF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $44.39
Fair Value $60.35
Bull $84.63
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.56 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$35.39
$37.98
$43.75
76
EPV
$24.82
$33.89
$41.82
74
Owner Earnings
$27.74
$60.09
$109.66
73
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$27.74
$60.09
$109.66
73
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$23.68
$74.76
$99.57
64
Lynch FV
$16.40
$23.43
$30.46
61
PEG = 1.0
$16.40
$23.43
$30.46
57
EPV
$24.82
$33.89
$41.82
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$54.84
$73.12
$91.40
63
P/S Multiple
$44.39
$59.19
$73.99
58
P/B Multiple
$44.39
$59.19
$73.99
55
EV/EBIT
$57.00
$85.87
$114.73
65
EV/EBITDA
$104.21
$148.81
$193.42
67
EV/Revenue
$32.21
$58.70
$85.19
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$20.97
$28.10
$41.94
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$35.39
$37.98
$43.75
76
ROIC Compounder
$24.82
$33.89
$41.82
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$45.57
$65.10
$84.63
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
36/100
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Profitability
32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
20
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
49
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
53
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+52.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+50.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.4% vs −1.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 18.2%/yr over ~7Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Watch TRATF, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (72 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
- Traton SE (TRATF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Order Intake and Electrification ...
- Traton SE (TRATF) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strong Order ...
- Information on the Convocation of the Virtual Annual General Meeting 2026 of TRATON SE
- Traton (XTRA:8TRA) Valuation Check After Recent Share Price Volatility
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 145 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $810.79 | $308.45 | −62% |
| Deere & Company DE | $671.55 | $258.17 | −62% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $109.81 | $120.79 | +10% |
| Daimler Truck Holding DTG | €42.54 | €50.36 | +18% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥17.20 | ¥20.84 | +21% |
| CNH Industrial N.V CNH | $13.06 | $8.65 | −34% |
| Metso Oyj METSO | €17.08 | €18.79 | +10% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥7.17 | ¥14.52 | +103% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$35.30 | HK$56.32 | +60% |
| Ashok Leyland Limited ASHOKLEY | ₹159.08 | ₹118.01 | −26% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Traton SE (TRATF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $60.35 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $39.70, about +52% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TRATF?
Our model-based fair value for Traton SE is $60.35 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $39.70.
What is the quality score of TRATF?
Traton SE has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Traton SE (TRATF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $60.35 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $44.39, optimistic scenario $84.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Traton SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $60.35, about +52% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $39.70 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $44.39, optimistic scenario $84.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Traton SE (TRATF)?
Traton SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €43.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Traton SE pay a dividend?
Traton SE currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.34% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Traton SE (TRATF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Traton SE it is $60.35 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $39.70. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Traton SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, TRATF trades below its calculated fair value: price $39.70, fair value $60.35, a gap of about +52% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRATF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($39.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($60.35). For Traton SE the two are $20.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Traton SE worth?
The market values Traton SE at about $19.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $39.70; our models calculate a fair value of $60.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRATF?
Our models span a range for Traton SE: cautious scenario $44.39, base $60.35, optimistic $84.63 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $39.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TRATF?
Traton SE trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $60.35 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 7.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Traton SE (TRATF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Traton SE (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 6.9%, debt of 0.86 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TRATF from its 52-week high?
Traton SE trades at $39.70, about 14% below its 52-week high of $46.07 and 34% above the low of $29.64 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $60.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Traton SE?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Traton SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $39.70, calculated fair value $60.35 (+52%), Quality Score 36/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRATF calculated?
We run Traton SE through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $60.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Traton SE currently trades 34 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Traton SE (TRATF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $39.70. Our model-based fair value is $60.35, about +52% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Traton SE right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($44.39). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($44.39 to $84.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Traton SE
How large is the market capitalisation of Traton SE (TRATF)?
The market capitalisation of Traton SE is $19.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Traton SE (TRATF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Traton SE is 0.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Traton SE (TRATF)?
Earnings per share at Traton SE are $2.99 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Traton SE (TRATF)?
The dividend yield of Traton SE is 2.3% (payout 31.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Traton SE (TRATF)?
The net margin of Traton SE is 3.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Traton SE (TRATF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Traton SE is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Traton SE (TRATF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Traton SE is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Traton SE (TRATF)?
The operating margin of Traton SE is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Traton SE (TRATF)?
Revenue at Traton SE is growing −3.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Traton SE (TRATF)?
Earnings per share at Traton SE are growing −51.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Traton SE (TRATF) generate?
The free cash flow of Traton SE is −€1.9B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Traton SE (TRATF) carry?
The net debt of Traton SE is €24.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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