Trex Company (TREX) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $4.7B
Trex Company
TREX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $32.40 to $32.70 (+0.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +7.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 34% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($48.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($18.18 to $48.02). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $30.13 – $140.68 · fair‑value band $18.18 – $48.02 · the $49.17 price screens above the $32.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Trex Company (TREX) currently trades at $49.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.70, implying the stock looks roughly 33.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Trex Company generated revenue of $1.2B at a net margin of 16.3%. Revenue grew 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.1%. Net debt stands at $225M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $18.18 (bear case) to $48.02 (bull case); at $49.17, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at -34%, TREX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($33.44) versus Asset-Based ($6.67). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Trex Company, Inc. manufactures and sells composite decking and railing products in the United States. It offers decking products and accessories that can be used for protection against fading, staining, mold, and scratching, including Trex Transcend, which are decking products that can also be used as cladding; Trex Signature; Trex Transcend Lineage; Trex …
Full company description
Trex Company, Inc. manufactures and sells composite decking and railing products in the United States. It offers decking products and accessories that can be used for protection against fading, staining, mold, and scratching, including Trex Transcend, which are decking products that can also be used as cladding; Trex Signature; Trex Transcend Lineage; Trex Select; Trex Enhance; Trex Hideaway fastener collection; and Trex DeckLighting, an outdoor lighting system that includes a post cap, deck rail, riser, a soffit, and a recessed deck lights. The company also offers railing products, such as Trex Signature X-Series Railing, Trex Signature aluminum railing, Trex Transcend Railing, Trex Select Railing, Trex Select T-Rail, Trex Enhance Railing; and fencing products, which includes Trex Seclusions that consists of structural posts, bottom rails, pickets, top rails, and decorative post caps. In addition, it acts as a licensor in various licensing agreements with third parties to manufacture and sell products under the Trex name, including Trex Outdoor Furniture; Trex RainEscape, an above joist deck drainage system; Trex Protect joist, beam and rim tape, a self-adhesive butyl tape that protects wooden deck framing/substructure elements; Trex RainEscape Soffit Light, a plug-and-play LED Soffit light that is installed in the under-deck ceiling of a two-story deck; Trex Seal Ledger Flashing Tape, butyl flashing tape with an aluminum liner; Trex Pergola, Pergolas made from low maintenance aluminum reinforced cellular PVC; Trex Lattice outdoor boards; Trex Cornhole boards; Trex Blade, a specialty saw blade for wood-alternative composite decking; Trex SpiralStairs; and Trex Outdoor Kitchen cabinetry. The company sells its products through wholesale distributors, retail lumber dealers, and Home Depot and Lowe's stores. Trex Company, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Winchester, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Trex Company reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was $190M in FY2025, compounding −2.3%/yr from FY2021.
TREX screens 34% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Trex Company, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
- Trex Co Inc (TREX) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Demand Drives 8% Sales Growth and ...
- Trex (NYSE:TREX) Reports Q2 CY2026 In Line With Expectations, Next Quarter’s Sales Guidance is Optimistic
- Trex (TREX) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Lag Estimates
Peer Group
Building Products & Equipment · 247 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trane Technologies plc TT | $469.98 | $212.34 | -55% |
| Johnson Controls International plc JCI | $142.81 | $45.65 | -68% |
| Carrier Global Corporation CARR | $68.61 | $17.35 | -75% |
| Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO | €76.62 | €101.60 | +33% |
| Geberit AG GEBN | CHF 523.20 | CHF 307.66 | -41% |
| Lennox International Inc LII | $543.93 | $363.09 | -33% |
| Kingspan Group KRX | €87.30 | €70.76 | -19% |
| Masco Corporation MAS | $78.04 | $54.36 | -30% |
| PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC | 1,420 IDR | 179.76 IDR | -87% |
| NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB | kr 36.03 | kr 25.37 | -30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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