Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors

Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Trinity Industries Inc $41.34, price $28.05, upside +47.4%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? No
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Industrials · US · ISIN US8965221091

Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Trinity Industries Inc

TRN · US

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value $41.34 · Undervalued (+47%)

!Quality 47/100

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +4.3 %/yr)

✓Solidly profitable · 12.4% net margin (TTM)

!High debt · negative free cash flow

·4.35% dividend yield

!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)

!Moderate moat 58/100

!Insider activity 40/100

26 models, one by oneBear $21.65 to bull $66.71 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 47/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $18.20 – $38.07 · fair‑value band $21.65 – $66.71 · the $28.05 price screens below the $41.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Trinity Industries, Inc. provides railcar products and services under the TrinityRail trade name in North America. The company operates in two segments, Railcar Leasing and Services Group, and Rail Products Group. The Railcar Leasing and Services Group segment leases freight and tank railcars; originates and manages railcar leases for third-party investors; and provides fleet leasing, management, and administrative services, as well as railcar maintenance and modification services, and other railcar logistics products and services. As of December 31, 2025, it had a fleet of 101,485 railcars. This segment serves industrial shipper and railroad companies operating in refined products and chemicals, energy, agriculture, construction and metals, and consumer products. The Rail Products Group segment manufactures freight and tank railcars for transporting various liquids, gases, and dry cargo; and manufactures and sells railcars and related parts and components. This segment serves railroads, leasing companies, and industrial shippers of products in the refined products and chemicals, energy, agriculture, construction and metals, and consumer products markets. It sells or leases products and services through its own sales personnel and independent sales representatives. The company was incorporated in 1933 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Stock analysis

Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) currently trades at $28.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $41.34, implying the stock looks roughly 32.1% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $54.12 per share, and 6 of the 11 models we run sit above the $28.05 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.08, and 5 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $21.65 (bear) to $66.71 (bull), the price of $28.05 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Trinity Industries Inc reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +9.2%/yr. Reported net income was $253M in FY2025, compounding +8.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $2.8B · P/E ratio 8.8 · P/S ratio 1.04 · EPS (TTM) $3.17 · Dividend yield 4.3% · Net margin 11.7% · Return on equity 23.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 47%, TRN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $21.65 Fair Value $41.34 Bull $66.71

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.43 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

Gordon GGM $10.90 $14.76 $18.57 69

DDM Multi-Stage $10.90 $14.90 $19.44 67

Growth-Adj P/E $35.92 $51.32 $66.71 67

All 11 models by family

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $21.65 $41.34 $51.53 66

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $10.90 $14.76 $18.57 69

DDM Multi-Stage $10.90 $14.90 $19.44 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple $50.14 $66.85 $83.56 63

P/S Multiple $40.59 $54.12 $67.65 58

P/B Multiple $40.59 $54.12 $67.65 55

EV/EBIT n/a $10.71 $29.87 61

EV/EBITDA $15.44 $42.57 $69.69 62

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $6.77 $9.08 $13.55 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income $19.75 $25.87 $105.82 64

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $35.92 $51.32 $66.71 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35

Profitability 38

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 53

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 31

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 4

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 63

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 46

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 31

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 31

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 92

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 33/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Revenue growth 1 year

−30.0%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+2.9%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+4.3%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −10.3% a year

Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+4.1%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.

+25.7%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+21.4%

Dividend (yield on the price)4.3%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17% vs −3%, picking up

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−9% → 17%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype

Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

Is Trinity Industries (TRN) Undervalued On Its 250th Consecutive Dividend Payout? Yahoo Finance · Sep 15, 2026
Jim Cramer on Trinity Industries (TRN): “Shouldn’t Be Down This Much” Yahoo Finance · Sep 11, 2026
Trinity Industries, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend Yahoo Finance · Sep 10, 2026

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 113 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 47 · Below median

Fair Value upside +47% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 23% · Top 25%

Return on assets 3% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 12% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 16% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −16% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 4.3% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 5.05× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.8× · Cheapest 25%

P/B 2.63× · Priciest 25%

P/S (TTM) 1.38× · Pricier than median

EV/EBITDA 12.5× · Pricier than median

PEG 0.69× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)97 · sector 24

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 20

PAST (return on equity)92 · sector 30

HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 89

DIVIDEND (yield)87 · sector 43

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP	$274.41	$153.60	−44%
CSX Corporation CSX	$46.59	$12.85	−72%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP	$87.99	$37.86	−57%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC	$314.00	$133.01	−58%
Canadian National Railway Company CNI	$119.52	$98.68	−17%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB	$289.71	$289.60	+0%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816	¥4.74	¥5.65	+19%
CRRC Corporation 601766	¥5.98	¥9.53	+59%
Daqin Railway Co 601006	¥4.71	¥5.48	+16%
Hyundai Rotem Company 064350	115,900 KRW	130,163 KRW	+12%

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Trinity Industries Inc · Fair Value
$41.34 +32%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TRN" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Trinity Industries Inc · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$41.34</b> <span style="color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+32%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Trinity Industries Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TRN

Frequently asked questions

Is Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $41.34 versus a price of $28.05, about +47% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of TRN?

Our model-based fair value for Trinity Industries Inc is $41.34 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $28.05.

What is the quality score of TRN?

Trinity Industries Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $41.34 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.65, optimistic scenario $66.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Trinity Industries Inc stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $41.34, about +47% upside versus a price of $28.05 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $21.65, optimistic scenario $66.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?

Trinity Industries Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).

Does Trinity Industries Inc pay a dividend?

Trinity Industries Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.35% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Trinity Industries Inc it is $41.34 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $28.05. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Trinity Industries Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 23, 2026, TRN trades below its calculated fair value: price $28.05, fair value $41.34, a gap of about +47% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of TRN?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($28.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($41.34). For Trinity Industries Inc the two are $13.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Trinity Industries Inc worth?

The market values Trinity Industries Inc at about $2.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $28.05; our models calculate a fair value of $41.34 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRN?

Our models span a range for Trinity Industries Inc: cautious scenario $21.65, base $41.34, optimistic $66.71 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $28.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of TRN?

Trinity Industries Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $41.34 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 2.6, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 12.5.

What is the PEG ratio of TRN?

The PEG ratio of Trinity Industries Inc is 0.69 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.

How solid is the balance sheet of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?

Balance-sheet figures for Trinity Industries Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 23.1%, debt of 5.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is TRN from its 52-week high?

Trinity Industries Inc trades at $28.05, about 26% below its 52-week high of $38.07 and 15% above the low of $24.40 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $41.34 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Trinity Industries Inc?

From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Trinity Industries Inc stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $28.05, calculated fair value $41.34 (+47%), Quality Score 47/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of TRN calculated?

We run Trinity Industries Inc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $41.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Trinity Industries Inc currently trades 47 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?

The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $28.05. Our model-based fair value is $41.34, about +47% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Trinity Industries Inc right now?

The model range is unusually wide ($21.65 to $66.71). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Where does the earnings growth of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) come from?

Earnings per share at Trinity Industries Inc grew −7.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.5 %, EBIT margin −2.9 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Trinity Industries Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?

The market capitalisation of Trinity Industries Inc is $2.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Trinity Industries Inc is 1.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?

Earnings per share at Trinity Industries Inc are $3.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?

The dividend yield of Trinity Industries Inc is 4.3% (payout 38.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?

The net margin of Trinity Industries Inc is 11.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Trinity Industries Inc is 23.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Trinity Industries Inc is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?

The operating margin of Trinity Industries Inc is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?

Revenue at Trinity Industries Inc is growing −16.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?

Earnings per share at Trinity Industries Inc are growing +11.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) generate?

The free cash flow of Trinity Industries Inc is −$435M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) carry?

The net debt of Trinity Industries Inc is $5.2B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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