Trinity Industries, Inc (TRN) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $2.8B
Trinity Industries, Inc
TRN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Share price −12.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 72% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($35.92). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($35.92 to $67.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.20 – $38.07 · fair‑value band $35.92 – $67.65 · the $29.90 price screens below the $51.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Trinity Industries, Inc (TRN) currently trades at $29.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $51.32, implying the stock looks roughly 71.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Trinity Industries, Inc generated revenue of $2.1B at a net margin of 12.4%. Revenue declined 16.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 23.1%. Net debt stands at $5.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $35.92 (bear case) to $67.65 (bull case); at $29.90, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at 72%, TRN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($54.12) versus Asset-Based ($9.08). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Trinity Industries, Inc. provides railcar products and services under the TrinityRail trade name in North America. The company operates in two segments, Railcar Leasing and Services Group, and Rail Products Group.
Full company description
Trinity Industries, Inc. provides railcar products and services under the TrinityRail trade name in North America. The company operates in two segments, Railcar Leasing and Services Group, and Rail Products Group. The Railcar Leasing and Services Group segment leases freight and tank railcars; originates and manages railcar leases for third-party investors; and provides fleet leasing, management, and administrative services, as well as railcar maintenance and modification services, and other railcar logistics products and services. As of December 31, 2025, it had a fleet of 101,485 railcars. This segment serves industrial shipper and railroad companies operating in refined products and chemicals, energy, agriculture, construction and metals, and consumer products. The Rail Products Group segment manufactures freight and tank railcars for transporting various liquids, gases, and dry cargo; and manufactures and sells railcars and related parts and components. This segment serves railroads, leasing companies, and industrial shippers of products in the refined products and chemicals, energy, agriculture, construction and metals, and consumer products markets. It sells or leases products and services through its own sales personnel and independent sales representatives. The company was incorporated in 1933 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Trinity Industries, Inc reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +9.2%/yr. Reported net income was $253M in FY2025, compounding +8.6%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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