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Data-driven stock valuation

Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Trinity Industries Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Industrials · US · Market cap $2.3B · ISIN US8965221091

At a glance

TI Trinity Industries Inc logo Trinity Industries Inc TRN · US
Price$28.01
Fair Value$42.57
Upside+52.0%
Quality47/100

Below-average quality, trading 34% below our fair value of $42.57.

As of Sep 5, 2026, the fair value of Trinity Industries Inc is $42.57 per share against a price of $28.01, so the fair value sits 52% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +4.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.4% net margin
!High debt · negative free cash flow
·4.36% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
!Moderate moat 58/100
Evidence: High Range $35.92 to $67.65

Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026

From 11 valuation models · updated 5 days ago

Share price −6.3% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($35.92). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range ($35.92 to $67.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$38.07 $18.20 Fair Value $42.57 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $18.20 – $38.07 · fair‑value band $35.92 – $67.65 · the $28.01 price screens below the $42.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

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Analysis

Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) currently trades at $28.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $42.57, implying the stock looks roughly 34.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $54.12 per share, and 6 of the 11 models we run sit above the $28.01 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.08, and 5 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Trinity Industries Inc generated revenue of $2.1B at a net margin of 12.4%. Revenue declined 16.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 23.1%. Net debt stands at $5.2B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026

Scenario range: $35.92 (bear) to $67.65 (bull), the price of $28.01 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at 52%, TRN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.35 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM best evidence $10.90 $14.76 $18.57 69
DDM Multi-Stage $10.90 $14.90 $19.44 67
Growth-Adj P/E $35.92 $51.32 $66.71 67
All 11 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $21.65 $41.34 $51.53 66
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM best evidence $10.90 $14.76 $18.57 69
DDM Multi-Stage $10.90 $14.90 $19.44 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $50.14 $66.85 $83.56 63
P/S Multiple $40.59 $54.12 $67.65 58
P/B Multiple $40.59 $54.12 $67.65 55
EV/EBIT n/a $10.71 $29.87 61
EV/EBITDA $15.44 $42.57 $69.69 62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.77 $9.08 $13.55 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $19.75 $25.87 $105.82 64
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $35.92 $51.32 $66.71 67

Widest divergence: Multiples ($54.12) versus Asset-Based ($9.08). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (69).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 8.8
P/S ratio 1.04 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $3.17 price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.8
Dividend yield 4.4% payout 38.5%
Net margin 11.7% FY2025
Return on equity 23.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% avg 5y
Operating margin 15.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $2.1B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −16.0% 3y avg +2.9%
EPS growth (YoY) +11.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −$435M FY2025
Net debt $5.2B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 4
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 46
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 38
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Trinity Industries, Inc. provides railcar products and services under the TrinityRail trade name in North America. The company operates in two segments, Railcar Leasing and Services Group, and Rail Products Group.

Full company description

Trinity Industries, Inc. provides railcar products and services under the TrinityRail trade name in North America. The company operates in two segments, Railcar Leasing and Services Group, and Rail Products Group. The Railcar Leasing and Services Group segment leases freight and tank railcars; originates and manages railcar leases for third-party investors; and provides fleet leasing, management, and administrative services, as well as railcar maintenance and modification services, and other railcar logistics products and services. As of December 31, 2025, it had a fleet of 101,485 railcars. This segment serves industrial shipper and railroad companies operating in refined products and chemicals, energy, agriculture, construction and metals, and consumer products. The Rail Products Group segment manufactures freight and tank railcars for transporting various liquids, gases, and dry cargo; and manufactures and sells railcars and related parts and components. This segment serves railroads, leasing companies, and industrial shippers of products in the refined products and chemicals, energy, agriculture, construction and metals, and consumer products markets. It sells or leases products and services through its own sales personnel and independent sales representatives. The company was incorporated in 1933 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Trinity Industries Inc reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +9.2%/yr. Reported net income was $253M in FY2025, compounding +8.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 33/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$2.2B
Latest YoY
−30.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+25.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+21.4%
Dividend yield4.4%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 16.6% vs 10Y −3.4%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−8.8% (2020) → 16.6% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop149% (2009) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue +9.2%/yr
FY21 $1.5B
FY22 $2.0B
FY23 $3.0B
FY24 $3.1B
FY25 $2.2B
Net income +8.6%/yr
FY21 $182M
FY22 $60.1M
FY23 $106M
FY24 $138M
FY25 $253M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −7.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share −1.5 %

of which total revenue −7.8 % · buybacks/dilution +6.9 %

EBIT margin −2.9 %
Tax rate +1.9 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −5.1 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Trinity Industries Inc · Fair Value
$42.57 +34%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Trinity Industries Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TRN

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Railroads · 112 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside +50% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 23% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 12% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 16% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −16% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 5.05× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.8× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 2.63× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.38× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 12.5× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.69× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 21
FUTURE0 · sector 20
PAST92 · sector 30
HEALTH0 · sector 90
DIVIDEND87 · sector 44

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $289.62 $141.29 −51%
CSX Corporation CSX $48.99 $12.62 −74%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $91.60 $34.55 −62%
Canadian National Railway Company CNR C$170.58 C$92.68 −46%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $332.96 $114.36 −66%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $297.57 $144.80 −51%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.87 ¥5.65 +16%
MTR Corporation 0066 HK$32.04 HK$17.85 −44%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.98 ¥9.53 +59%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.72 ¥6.22 +32%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $42.57 versus a price of $28.01, about +52% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TRN?
Our model-based fair value for Trinity Industries Inc is $42.57 (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $28.01.
What is the quality score of TRN?
Trinity Industries Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $42.57 (as of Sep 5, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $35.92, optimistic scenario $67.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Trinity Industries Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $42.57, about +52% upside versus a price of $28.01 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $35.92, optimistic scenario $67.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?
Trinity Industries Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TRN?
The net profit margin of Trinity Industries Inc is about 12.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 12.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Trinity Industries Inc pay a dividend?
Trinity Industries Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.36% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Trinity Industries Inc it is $42.57 per share (as of Sep 5, 2026), against a price of $28.01. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Trinity Industries Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 5, 2026, TRN trades below its calculated fair value: price $28.01, fair value $42.57, a gap of about +52% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($28.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($42.57). For Trinity Industries Inc the two are $14.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Trinity Industries Inc worth?
The market values Trinity Industries Inc at about $2.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 5, 2026). Per share that is $28.01; our models calculate a fair value of $42.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRN?
Our models span a range for Trinity Industries Inc: cautious scenario $35.92, base $42.57, optimistic $67.65 per share (as of Sep 5, 2026, price $28.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TRN?
Trinity Industries Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.8 (as of Sep 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $42.57 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 2.6, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 12.5.
What is the PEG ratio of TRN?
The PEG ratio of Trinity Industries Inc is 0.69 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Trinity Industries Inc (as of Sep 5, 2026): return on equity 23.1%, debt of 5.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TRN from its 52-week high?
Trinity Industries Inc trades at $28.01, about 25% below its 52-week high of $37.36 and 29% above the low of $21.70 (as of Sep 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $42.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Trinity Industries Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Canadian National Railway Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Trinity Industries Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 5, 2026: price $28.01, calculated fair value $42.57 (+52%), Quality Score 47/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRN calculated?
We run Trinity Industries Inc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $42.57, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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