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Data-driven stock valuation

Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Trinity Industries Inc stock $42.03, price $29.43, upside +42.8%, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials US

TI Trinity Industries Inc logo Some data Nov 7, 2026

Trinity Industries Inc

TRN · US
Speculative

The stock costs 30% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $42.03 · Undervalued (30%)
Solidly profitable · 15.4% net margin (TTM)
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Upbeat coverage
Costs just 7.1 times its yearly profit.
Quality 49/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +4.3 %/yr in USD)
4.2% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Moderate moat 62/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $502,350 (6M)
Some data
High debt
Negative free cash flow
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$37.62 $17.83 Fair Value $42.03 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $17.83 – $37.62 · fair‑value band $22.01 – $52.39 · the $29.43 price screens below the $42.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Trinity Industries, Inc. provides railcar products and services under the TrinityRail trade name in North America. The company operates in two segments, Railcar Leasing and Services Group, and Rail Products Group.

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The Railcar Leasing and Services Group segment leases freight and tank railcars; originates and manages railcar leases for third-party investors; and provides fleet leasing, management, and administrative services, as well as railcar maintenance and modification services, and other railcar logistics products and services.

As of December 31, 2025, it had a fleet of 101,485 railcars. This segment serves industrial shipper and railroad companies operating in refined products and chemicals, energy, agriculture, construction and metals, and consumer products.

The Rail Products Group segment manufactures freight and tank railcars for transporting various liquids, gases, and dry cargo; and manufactures and sells railcars and related parts and components.

This segment serves railroads, leasing companies, and industrial shippers of products in the refined products and chemicals, energy, agriculture, construction and metals, and consumer products markets.

It sells or leases products and services through its own sales personnel and independent sales representatives. The company was incorporated in 1933 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Stock analysis

Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) currently trades at $29.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $42.03, implying the stock looks roughly 30% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $52.18 per share, and 5 of the 11 models we run sit above the $29.43 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.39, and 6 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $22.01 (bear) to $52.39 (bull), the price of $29.43 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Trinity Industries Inc reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +9.2%/yr. Reported net income was $253M in FY2025, compounding +8.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $2.4B Mid · P/E ratio 7.1 · P/S ratio 1.13 · EPS (TTM) $4.15 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 15.4% · Return on equity 29.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 43%, TRN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $22.01 Fair Value $42.03 Bull $52.39
Price $29.43 · Upside +42.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.49 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $17.34 $20.85 $29.06 76
Gordon GGM $10.12 $13.32 $16.30 69
DDM Multi-Stage $10.12 $13.43 $16.92 67
All 11 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $22.01 $42.03 $52.39 66
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $10.12 $13.32 $16.30 69
DDM Multi-Stage $10.12 $13.43 $16.92 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $50.99 $67.98 $84.98 63
P/S Multiple $41.27 $55.03 $68.79 58
P/B Multiple $21.57 $28.75 $35.94 55
EV/EBIT n/a $10.89 $30.37 61
EV/EBITDA $15.71 $43.29 $70.87 62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.77 $6.39 $9.53 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $17.34 $20.85 $29.06 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $36.53 $52.18 $67.84 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 38
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 31
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 4
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 63
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 42
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 34
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 46
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 93
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $502,350 and none bought.

  • SaleKevin PoetEVP Operations & Support Svcs17,000 shares at $29.55$502,350Aug 25, 202610b5-1 plan

Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 33/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−30.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −10.3% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
≈ +41.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +36.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 16.6% / −3.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−9% → 17%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.71 per share, median 1.50 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.

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Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 109 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside +42.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 29.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 15.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 13.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 17.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 4.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 5.05× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 7.1× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 2.23× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 1.13× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 13.0× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.69× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)90 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)89 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)84 · sector 42

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥6.55 ¥9.21 +41% vs TRN
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥5.36 ¥5.84 +9% vs TRN
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $283.59 $290.92 +3% vs TRN
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.88 ¥4.66 −5% vs TRN
Canadian National Railway Company CNI $124.06 $100.13 −19% vs TRN
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $290.16 $153.89 −47% vs TRN
Getlink SE GET €20.22 €10.47 −48% vs TRN
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $92.17 $38.28 −58% vs TRN
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $319.94 $132.55 −59% vs TRN
CSX Corporation CSX $49.12 $12.92 −74% vs TRN

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Trinity Industries Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Trinity Industries Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TRN

Frequently asked questions

Is Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $42.03 versus a price of $29.43, about +43% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TRN?
Our model-based fair value for Trinity Industries Inc is $42.03 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $29.43.
What is the quality score of TRN?
Trinity Industries Inc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $42.03 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.01, optimistic scenario $52.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Trinity Industries Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $42.03, about +43% upside versus a price of $29.43 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $22.01, optimistic scenario $52.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?
Trinity Industries Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Trinity Industries Inc pay a dividend?
Trinity Industries Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 4.21% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Trinity Industries Inc pays a dividend of $1.24 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1973. The payout ratio is 29.9% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Trinity Industries Inc it is $42.03 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $29.43. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Trinity Industries Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, TRN trades below its calculated fair value: price $29.43, fair value $42.03, a gap of about +43% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($29.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($42.03). For Trinity Industries Inc the two are $12.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Trinity Industries Inc worth?
The market values Trinity Industries Inc at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $29.43; our models calculate a fair value of $42.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRN?
Our models span a range for Trinity Industries Inc: cautious scenario $22.01, base $42.03, optimistic $52.39 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $29.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TRN?
Trinity Industries Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.1 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $42.03 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 19.2. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 2.2, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 13.0.
What is the PEG ratio of TRN?
The PEG ratio of Trinity Industries Inc is 0.69 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Trinity Industries Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 29.1%, debt of 5.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TRN from its 52-week high?
Trinity Industries Inc trades at $29.43, about 22% below its 52-week high of $37.62 and 23% above the low of $23.91 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $42.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Trinity Industries Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Trinity Industries Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $29.43, calculated fair value $42.03 (+43%), Quality Score 49/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRN calculated?
We run Trinity Industries Inc through 11 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $42.03 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Trinity Industries Inc currently trades 30% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $29.43. Our model-based fair value is $42.03, about +43% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Trinity Industries Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (49/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. A fairly wide model range ($22.01 to $52.39) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) come from?
Earnings per share at Trinity Industries Inc grew −7.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.5 %, EBIT margin −2.9 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Trinity Industries Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?
The market capitalisation of Trinity Industries Inc is $2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Trinity Industries Inc is 1.13 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?
Earnings per share at Trinity Industries Inc are $4.15 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?
The dividend yield of Trinity Industries Inc is 4.2% (payout 29.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?
The net margin of Trinity Industries Inc is 15.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Trinity Industries Inc is 29.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Trinity Industries Inc is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?
The operating margin of Trinity Industries Inc is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?
Revenue at Trinity Industries Inc is growing +17.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Trinity Industries Inc (TRN)?
Earnings per share at Trinity Industries Inc are growing −39.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) generate?
The free cash flow of Trinity Industries Inc is −$435M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) carry?
The net debt of Trinity Industries Inc is $5.2B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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