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Trip.com Group (TRPCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Trip.com Group $93.52, price $35.95, upside +160.1%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Trip.com Group
TRPCF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $93.52 · Strongly undervalued (+160.1%)
✓Quality 62/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +27.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 53.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 75/100
!The models disagree: range $54.39 to $187.35
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range $24.65 – $78.15 · fair‑value band $54.39 – $187.35 · the $35.95 price screens below the $93.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally.
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Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally. It acts as an agent for hotel-related transactions and selling air tickets, as well as provides train, long-distance bus, and ferry tickets; travel insurance products, such as flight delay, air accident, and baggage loss coverage; and air-ticket delivery, online check-in and seat selection, express security screening, real-time flight status tracker, and airport VIP lounge services. The company also provides travelers bundled packaged-tour products, such as group, semi-group, and customized and packaged tours with various transportation arrangements, including air, cruise, bus, and car rental services. In addition, it offers integrated transportation and accommodation services; ticket, activity, insurance, visa, and tour guide services; and user support, supplier management, and customer relationship management services; and in-destination products and services. Further, the company provides Trip.Biz, a digital first, full-service, corporate travel management business which provides technology-enabled solutions for organizations managing business travel. Additionally, it offers online advertising and financial services, such as marketing planning and travel media services; Omni-Channel Touchpoints for Users; and Open Platform for Ecosystem Partners. It operates under the Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, Travix, Travelfusion, and Skyscanner brand names. The company was formerly known as Ctrip.com International, Ltd. and changed its name to Trip.com Group Limited in October 2019. Trip.com Group Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Singapore.
Stock analysis
Trip.com Group (TRPCF) currently trades at $35.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $93.52, implying the stock looks roughly 61.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $261.22 per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the $35.95 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $27.17, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $54.39 (bear) to $187.35 (bull), the price of $35.95 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Trip.com Group reported revenue of 60.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 20.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +32.0%/yr. Reported net income was 32.4B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $28.8B · P/E ratio 5.1 · P/S ratio 2.72 · EPS (TTM) $7.04 · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 53.3% · Return on equity 21.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 160%, TRPCF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $54.39
Fair Value $93.52
Bull $187.35
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.32 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$64.58
$96.86
$199.64
76
Growth DCF
$61.24
$106.77
$198.79
75
EPV
$30.21
$33.86
$37.06
74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$64.58
$96.86
$199.64
76
Owner Earnings
$132.06
$289.93
$621.34
70
5Y Revenue Exit
$33.51
$46.27
$72.50
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$50.24
$80.10
$138.56
73
5Y P/E Exit
$119.53
$275.61
$491.54
67
10Y Revenue Exit
$42.42
$70.06
$83.53
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
$55.17
$106.09
$192.73
65
10Y P/E Exit
$105.74
$255.30
$508.65
59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$52.29
$364.64
$511.72
63
Lynch FV
$141.72
$202.46
$263.20
61
PEG = 1.0
$141.72
$202.46
$263.20
57
EPV
$30.21
$33.86
$37.06
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$3.10
$6.44
$10.22
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$3.10
$5.43
$6.76
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$126.87
$169.16
$211.45
63
P/S Multiple
$12.97
$17.30
$21.62
58
P/B Multiple
$98.04
$130.72
$163.40
55
EV/EBIT
$57.49
$73.88
$90.27
66
EV/EBITDA
$43.43
$55.14
$66.84
67
EV/Revenue
$20.42
$25.60
$30.79
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$20.27
$27.17
$40.55
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$61.24
$106.77
$198.79
75
Rev-Margin DCF
$33.86
$51.83
$85.84
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$50.81
$73.67
$147.23
71
ROIC Compounder
$30.21
$33.86
$37.06
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$182.85
$261.22
$339.58
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
62/100
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Profitability
57
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
62
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
55
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
4
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
58
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +38.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.33.6% vs 28.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−8% → 25%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 214% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.8% a year for the price and +9.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+16.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+12.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+11.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+9.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+8.5%
Watch TRPCF, get fair value alerts →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Wall Street Bulls Look Optimistic About Trip.com (TCOM): Should You Buy?
- Trip.com (TCOM) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key Insights
- Golden Week 2026 Fuels Extended Breaks and New Travel Routes: Trip.com Group Reveals Rising Destinations and Regional Trends
- Trip.com (TCOM) Books RMB5.2 Billion Penalty. Can Overseas Growth Offset Domestic Pressure?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Travel Services · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $162.91 | $192.97 | +18% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $160.65 | $176.72 | +10% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $265.86 | $209.94 | −21% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $79.30 | $87.23 | +10% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $264.17 | $290.59 | +10% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $25.07 | $36.68 | +46% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $14.80 | $20.28 | +37% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.50 | $5.23 | −45% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $46.75 | $34.50 | −26% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $63.66 | $36.63 | −42% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Trip.com Group (TRPCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $93.52 versus a price of $35.95, about +160% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TRPCF?
Our model-based fair value for Trip.com Group is $93.52 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $35.95.
What is the quality score of TRPCF?
Trip.com Group has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Trip.com Group (TRPCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $93.52 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $54.39, optimistic scenario $187.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Trip.com Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $93.52, about +160% upside versus a price of $35.95 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $54.39, optimistic scenario $187.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Trip.com Group (TRPCF)?
Trip.com Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 62.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Trip.com Group pay a dividend?
Trip.com Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.94% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Trip.com Group (TRPCF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Trip.com Group would have to grow free cash flow by -6.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.1 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TRPCF use?
Our models discount Trip.com Group at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Trip.com Group that is -6.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Trip.com Group (TRPCF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Trip.com Group grew +27.1 % a year. The price currently implies -6.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Trip.com Group (TRPCF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Trip.com Group (-6.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Trip.com Group (TRPCF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.07 %: that much free cash flow Trip.com Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Trip.com Group (TRPCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Trip.com Group it is $93.52 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $35.95. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Trip.com Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, TRPCF trades below its calculated fair value: price $35.95, fair value $93.52, a gap of about +160% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRPCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($35.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($93.52). For Trip.com Group the two are $57.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Trip.com Group worth?
The market values Trip.com Group at about $28.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $35.95; our models calculate a fair value of $93.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRPCF?
Our models span a range for Trip.com Group: cautious scenario $54.39, base $93.52, optimistic $187.35 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $35.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TRPCF?
Trip.com Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.1 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $93.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 1.1, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 9.5.
What is the PEG ratio of TRPCF?
The PEG ratio of Trip.com Group is 2.10 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Trip.com Group (TRPCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Trip.com Group (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 21.1%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TRPCF from its 52-week high?
Trip.com Group trades at $35.95, about 54% below its 52-week high of $78.15 and at the low of $35.95 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $93.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Trip.com Group?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Booking Holdings, Airbnb, Inc, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, Viking Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Trip.com Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $35.95, calculated fair value $93.52 (+160%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRPCF calculated?
We run Trip.com Group through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $93.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Trip.com Group currently trades 62 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Trip.com Group (TRPCF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $35.95. Our model-based fair value is $93.52, about +160% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Trip.com Group right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($54.39). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($54.39 to $187.35). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Trip.com Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Trip.com Group (TRPCF)?
The market capitalisation of Trip.com Group is $28.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Trip.com Group (TRPCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Trip.com Group is 2.72 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Trip.com Group (TRPCF)?
Earnings per share at Trip.com Group are $7.04 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Trip.com Group (TRPCF)?
The dividend yield of Trip.com Group is 4.9% (payout 25.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Trip.com Group (TRPCF)?
The net margin of Trip.com Group is 53.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Trip.com Group (TRPCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Trip.com Group is 21.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Trip.com Group (TRPCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Trip.com Group is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Trip.com Group (TRPCF)?
The operating margin of Trip.com Group is 16.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Trip.com Group (TRPCF)?
Revenue at Trip.com Group is growing +20.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +44.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Trip.com Group (TRPCF)?
Earnings per share at Trip.com Group are growing +98.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Trip.com Group (TRPCF) hold?
Trip.com Group holds more cash than debt, 14.5B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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