Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp $0.05, price $1.33, upside -96.2%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $0.0500 · Strongly overvalued (−96%)
!Quality 35/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue 3y +60.4 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -23.5% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 1.2%
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(3/13)
!Narrow moat14/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2690 – $2.18 · fair‑value band $0.0400 – $0.0600 · the $1.33 price screens above the $0.0500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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TRX Gold Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral property in Tanzania. Its flagship project is the Buckreef Gold Project in Tanzania. The company was formerly known as Tanzanian Gold Corporation and changed its name to TRX Gold Corporation in May 2022.
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TRX Gold Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral property in Tanzania. Its flagship project is the Buckreef Gold Project in Tanzania. The company was formerly known as Tanzanian Gold Corporation and changed its name to TRX Gold Corporation in May 2022. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Oakville, Canada.
Stock analysis
Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX) currently trades at $1.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0500, implying the stock looks roughly 2,559.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $0.2200 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $1.33 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.0300, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.0400 (bear) to $0.0600 (bull), the price of $1.33 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp reported revenue of $79.1M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was $944K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $432M · P/S ratio 2.69 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0700 · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity −8.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1% · Operating margin −22.0% · Revenue (TTM) $95.2M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 146% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at −96%, TRX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0400Fair Value $0.0500Bull $0.0600
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+41.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+60.4%
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+99.5%
’98
’99
’00
’08
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−32.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−32.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 1998 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−127,584,437% → 28%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+58.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+71.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +54.6% a year for the price and +67.6% for the forecasts.
Compare Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Below median
Fair Value upside−96% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets39% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)−170% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−22% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth274% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
P/B4.00× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)32.84× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF1,212.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA188.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.00× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 20
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0500 versus a price of $1.33, about −96% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TRX?
Our model-based fair value for Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp is $0.0500 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.33.
What is the quality score of TRX?
Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0500 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0400, optimistic scenario $0.0600. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0500, about −96% upside versus a price of $1.33 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.0400, optimistic scenario $0.0600. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX)?
Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $95.2M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +58.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 17 years revenue grew +49.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TRX use?
Our models discount Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp at 12.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.86, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp that is +58.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX) delivered so far?
Over the past 17 years revenue at Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp grew +49.8 % a year. The price currently implies +58.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (+58.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.66 %: that much free cash flow Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp it is $0.0500 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1.33. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TRX trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.33, fair value $0.0500, a gap of about −96% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0500). For Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp the two are $1.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp worth?
The market values Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp at about $432M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1.33; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRX?
Our models span a range for Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp: cautious scenario $0.0400, base $0.0500, optimistic $0.0600 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of TRX?
The PEG ratio of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp is 1.00 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −8.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TRX from its 52-week high?
Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp trades at $1.33, about 39% below its 52-week high of $2.18 and 146% above the low of $0.5401 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Zijin Mining Group, Newmont Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1.33, calculated fair value $0.0500 (−96%), Quality Score 35/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRX calculated?
We run Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $1.33. Our model-based fair value is $0.0500, about −96% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0600). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX)?
The market capitalisation of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp is $432M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp is 2.69 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX)?
Earnings per share at Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp are $−0.0700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX)?
The net margin of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp is 1.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp is −8.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX)?
The operating margin of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp is −22.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX)?
Revenue at Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp is growing +274% versus a year earlier (3y avg +60.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX)?
Earnings per share at Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp are growing +255% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp (TRX) hold?
Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp holds more cash than debt, $9.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026