Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd stock $9.41, price $11.17, upside -15.8%, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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IndustrialsUS · ADR · Based in Japan · ISIN US82444P1066
TMSome dataNov 2, 2026
Toshiba Machine Co Ltd
TSHMY · US
Expensive,weak quality
Our calculation puts a fair price 16% below what the stock costs today.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.99 – $17.10 · fair‑value band $7.85 – $10.69 · the $11.17 price screens above the $9.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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Shibaura Machine Co.,Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of various machines in Japan and internationally. It operates through three segments: Molding Machinery, Machine Tools, and Control Systems.
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The company offers injection molding machines, die-casting machines, extrusion machines, nano processing systems, machine tools, Board Type PLC, servo motors, industrial robots, and IoT+m products, as well as provides additive manufacturing systems and engineering solutions.
It also provides high precision machine tools, micro pattern imprinting machines, high precision glass mold press machines, and electronic control system.
In addition, the company provides machine tools that include double column type machining centers, horizontal boring machines, vertical lathes, and other machine tools. Furthur, it is involved in the castings, heat treatment, and machining work activities.
The company was formerly known as Toshiba Machine Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Shibaura Machine Co.,Ltd. in April 2020. Shibaura Machine Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY) currently trades at $11.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.41, 15.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $11.70 per share, and 4 of the 14 models we run sit above the $11.17 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.71, and 10 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $7.85 (bear) to $10.69 (bull), the price of $11.17 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥141B in FY2026 versus ¥108B in FY2022, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.1B in FY2026, compounding −26.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $528M Small · P/E ratio 79.8 · EPS (TTM) $0.1400 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 0.1% · Return on equity 0.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1% · Operating margin −3.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 23 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −16%, TSHMY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$7.85Fair Value $9.41Bull$10.69
Price $11.17 · Upside -15.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0828 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.8% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−23.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−27.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−27.4% vs −10.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 3%
Compare Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 810 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−15.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−3.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−31.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.0% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TSHMY
Frequently asked questions
Is Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.41 versus a price of $11.17, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TSHMY?
Our model-based fair value for Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR is $9.41 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.17.
What is the quality score of TSHMY?
Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.41 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.85, optimistic scenario $10.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.41, about −16% upside versus a price of $11.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.85, optimistic scenario $10.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY)?
Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥123B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 3.95% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR it is $9.41 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of $11.17. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, TSHMY trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.17, fair value $9.41, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSHMY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.41). For Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR the two are $1.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR at about $528M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is $11.17; our models calculate a fair value of $9.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSHMY?
Our models span a range for Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $7.85, base $9.41, optimistic $10.69 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price $11.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TSHMY?
Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 79.8 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.41 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 0.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price $11.17, calculated fair value $9.41 (−16%), Quality Score 47/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TSHMY calculated?
We run Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $11.17. Our model-based fair value is $9.41, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (47/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY) come from?
Earnings per share at Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR grew +15.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.0 %, EBIT margin +7.1 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY)?
The market capitalisation of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR is $528M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY)?
Earnings per share at Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR are $0.1400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 79.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY)?
The dividend yield of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR is 4.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY)?
The net margin of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR is 0.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR is 0.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY)?
The operating margin of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR is −3.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY)?
Revenue at Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR is growing −31.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY)?
Earnings per share at Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR are growing −95.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY) generate?
The free cash flow of Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR is −¥11.6B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Toshiba Machine Co Ltd (TSHMY) hold?
Toshiba Machine Co Ltd ADR holds more cash than debt, ¥27.2B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 2, 2026