Trisura Group Ltd (TSU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Trisura Group Ltd C$25.08, price C$41.99, upside -40.3%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Trisura Group Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$29.28 – C$49.62 · fair‑value band C$19.27 – C$67.64 · the C$41.99 price screens above the C$25.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Trisura Group in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Trisura Group is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Trisura Group Ltd., a specialty insurance company, operates in the surety, warranty, corporate insurance, and program and fronting businesses in Canada and the United States. The company operates in two segments: Trisura Specialty and Trisura US Programs.
Show more
Trisura Group Ltd., a specialty insurance company, operates in the surety, warranty, corporate insurance, and program and fronting businesses in Canada and the United States. The company operates in two segments: Trisura Specialty and Trisura US Programs. It offers contract surety bonds, such as performance and labour and material payment bonds for construction industry; commercial surety bonds, including license and permit, tax and excise, and fiduciary bonds; Developer surety bonds, comprising bonds to secure real estate developers; and new home warranty insurance for residential homes. The company also provides directors' and officers' insurance for private, and non-profit and public enterprises; professional liability insurance for both enterprises and professionals; technology and cyber liability insurance for enterprises; commercial package insurance for both enterprises and professionals; and fidelity insurance for both commercial enterprises and financial institutions. Trisura Group Ltd. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
Trisura Group Ltd (TSU) currently trades at C$41.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$25.08, implying the stock looks roughly 67.4% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of C$27.40 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the C$41.99 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$13.12, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$19.27 (bear) to C$67.64 (bull), the price of C$41.99 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Trisura Group Ltd reported revenue of C$868M in FY2025 versus C$350M in FY2021, a compound +25.5%/yr. Reported net income was C$142M in FY2025, compounding +22.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$2.0B (≈ $1.4B) · P/E ratio 13.5 · P/S ratio 2.22 · EPS (TTM) C$3.10 · Net margin 16.4% · Return on equity 17.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 5.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −40%, TSU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$19.27Fair Value C$25.08Bull C$67.64
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$2.27 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.7%
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+29.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.29% vs 37%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 22%
2025 sits 107% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Specialty · 30 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−40% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)13.5× · Pricier than median
P/B1.56× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.45× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF3.8× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA5.6× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)5· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)68· sector 62
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Trisura Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TSU
Frequently asked questions
Is Trisura Group Ltd (TSU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$25.08 versus a price of C$41.99, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TSU?
Our model-based fair value for Trisura Group Ltd is C$25.08 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$41.99.
What is the quality score of TSU?
Trisura Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Trisura Group Ltd (TSU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$25.08 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$19.27, optimistic scenario C$67.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Trisura Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$25.08, about −40% upside versus a price of C$41.99 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$19.27, optimistic scenario C$67.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Trisura Group Ltd (TSU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Trisura Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +30.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TSU use?
Our models discount Trisura Group Ltd at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Trisura Group Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Trisura Group Ltd (TSU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Trisura Group Ltd grew +30.8 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Trisura Group Ltd (TSU) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Trisura Group Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Trisura Group Ltd (TSU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.52 %: that much free cash flow Trisura Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Trisura Group Ltd (TSU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Trisura Group Ltd it is C$25.08 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of C$41.99. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Trisura Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TSU trades above its calculated fair value: price C$41.99, fair value C$25.08, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$41.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$25.08). For Trisura Group Ltd the two are C$16.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Trisura Group Ltd worth?
The market values Trisura Group Ltd at about C$2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is C$41.99; our models calculate a fair value of C$25.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSU?
Our models span a range for Trisura Group Ltd: cautious scenario C$19.27, base C$25.08, optimistic C$67.64 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price C$41.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TSU?
Trisura Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$25.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Trisura Group Ltd (TSU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Trisura Group Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TSU from its 52-week high?
Trisura Group Ltd trades at C$41.99, about 15% below its 52-week high of C$49.62 and 15% above the low of C$36.58 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$25.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Trisura Group Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Fidelity National Financial, Inc, AXIS Capital Holdings, First American Financial Corporation, Enact Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Trisura Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price C$41.99, calculated fair value C$25.08 (−40%), Quality Score 59/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TSU calculated?
We run Trisura Group Ltd through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$25.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Trisura Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Trisura Group Ltd (TSU)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was C$41.99. Our model-based fair value is C$25.08, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Trisura Group Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (C$19.27 to C$67.64). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Trisura Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Trisura Group Ltd (TSU)?
The market capitalisation of Trisura Group Ltd is C$2.0B (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Trisura Group Ltd (TSU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Trisura Group Ltd is 2.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Trisura Group Ltd (TSU)?
Earnings per share at Trisura Group Ltd are C$3.10 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Trisura Group Ltd (TSU)?
The net margin of Trisura Group Ltd is 16.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Trisura Group Ltd (TSU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Trisura Group Ltd is 17.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Trisura Group Ltd (TSU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Trisura Group Ltd is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Trisura Group Ltd (TSU)?
The operating margin of Trisura Group Ltd is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Trisura Group Ltd (TSU)?
Revenue at Trisura Group Ltd is growing +0.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Trisura Group Ltd (TSU)?
Earnings per share at Trisura Group Ltd are growing +28.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Trisura Group Ltd (TSU) hold?
Trisura Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, C$131M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Trisura Group Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Trisura Group Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
