TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of TWFG, Inc. Class A $6.77, price $24.61, upside -72.5%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
26‑month range $17.04 – $36.04 · fair‑value band $5.08 – $8.47 · the $24.61 price screens above the $6.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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TWFG, Inc. operates an independent distribution platform for personal and commercial insurance products in the United States.
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TWFG, Inc. operates an independent distribution platform for personal and commercial insurance products in the United States. The company offers auto, home, renters, life, health, motorcycle, umbrella, boat, recreational vehicle, flood, wind, event, luxury item, general liability, property, business auto, workers' compensation, business owner policy, and professional liability insurance products, as well as commercial bonds and group benefits. TWFG, Inc. was founded in 2001 and is based in The Woodlands, Texas.
Stock analysis
TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock (TWFG) currently trades at $24.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.77, 72.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $13.50 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $24.61 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.28, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.08 (bear) to $8.47 (bull), the price of $24.61 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock reported revenue of $234M in FY2025 versus $148M in FY2022, a compound +16.5%/yr. Reported net income was $8.0M in FY2025, compounding −27.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $274M · P/E ratio 43.9 · P/S ratio 1.50 · EPS (TTM) $0.5600 · Dividend yield 5.8% · Net margin 3.4% · Return on equity 16.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −54% fair-value upside, at −73%, TWFG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.08Fair Value $6.77Bull $8.47
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4235 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−0.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.8%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 10%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.8% a year for the price and +13.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (48 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance Brokers · 37 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside−72.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16.2% · Above median
Return on assets7.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)3.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)17.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth35.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)43.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 54
PAST (return on equity)65· sector 56
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 94
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TWFG
Frequently asked questions
Is TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.77 versus a price of $24.61, about −73% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TWFG?
Our model-based fair value for TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock is $6.77 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.61.
What is the quality score of TWFG?
TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.77 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.08, optimistic scenario $8.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.77, about −73% upside versus a price of $24.61 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.08, optimistic scenario $8.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG)?
TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $268M (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock pay a dividend?
TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.80% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock would have to grow free cash flow by +19.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +16.6 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TWFG use?
Our models discount TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock that is +19.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock grew +16.6 % a year. The price currently implies +19.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock (+19.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.84 %: that much free cash flow TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock it is $6.77 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of $24.61. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, TWFG trades above its calculated fair value: price $24.61, fair value $6.77, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TWFG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.77). For TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock the two are $17.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock worth?
The market values TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock at about $274M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is $24.61; our models calculate a fair value of $6.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TWFG?
Our models span a range for TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock: cautious scenario $5.08, base $6.77, optimistic $8.47 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price $24.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TWFG?
TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.9 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.77 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG)?
Balance-sheet figures for TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 16.2%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TWFG from its 52-week high?
TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock trades at $24.61, about 21% below its 52-week high of $31.15 and 44% above the low of $17.04 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co, Aon plc, Willis Towers Watson Public Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price $24.61, calculated fair value $6.77 (−73%), Quality Score 64/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TWFG calculated?
We run TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.77, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $24.61. Our model-based fair value is $6.77, about −73% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock
How large is the market capitalisation of TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG)?
The market capitalisation of TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock is $274M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock is 1.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG)?
Earnings per share at TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock are $0.5600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG)?
The dividend yield of TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock is 5.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG)?
The net margin of TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock is 3.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock is 16.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock is 14.5% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG)?
The operating margin of TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock is 17.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG)?
Revenue at TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock is growing +35.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG)?
Earnings per share at TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock are growing +32.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does TWFG, Inc. Class A (TWFG) hold?
TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock holds more cash than debt, $145M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 30, 2026