TWFG, Inc (TWFG) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $274M
TWFG, Inc
TWFG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +11.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 77% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (2 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
25‑month range $17.04 – $36.04 · fair‑value band $5.07 – $8.47 · the $29.07 price screens above the $6.77 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
TWFG, Inc (TWFG) currently trades at $29.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.77, implying the stock looks roughly 76.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, TWFG, Inc generated revenue of $268M at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue grew 35.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $145M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.07 (bear case) to $8.47 (bull case); at $29.07, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -38% fair-value upside, at -77%, TWFG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($13.50) versus Asset-Based ($4.28). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
TWFG, Inc. operates an independent distribution platform for personal and commercial insurance products in the United States.
Full company description
TWFG, Inc. operates an independent distribution platform for personal and commercial insurance products in the United States. The company offers auto, home, renters, life, health, motorcycle, umbrella, boat, recreational vehicle, flood, wind, event, luxury item, general liability, property, business auto, workers' compensation, business owner policy, and professional liability insurance products, as well as commercial bonds and group benefits. TWFG, Inc. was founded in 2001 and is based in The Woodlands, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TWFG, Inc reported revenue of $234M in FY2025 versus $148M in FY2022, a compound +16.5%/yr. Reported net income was $8.0M in FY2025, compounding −27.2%/yr from FY2022.
TWFG screens 77% overvalued. Compare with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc →
Peer Group
Insurance Brokers · 35 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance Brokers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc MRSH | $182.18 | $112.25 | -38% |
| Aon plc AON | $367.21 | $224.91 | -39% |
| Arthur J. Gallagher & Co AJG | $253.09 | $75.58 | -70% |
| Willis Towers Watson Public Limited WTW | $285.12 | $220.92 | -23% |
| Brown & Brown, Inc BRO | $67.66 | $40.43 | -40% |
| Erie Indemnity Company ERIE | $227.31 | $157.43 | -31% |
| PB Fintech Limited POLICYBZR | ₹1,574 | ₹188.49 | -88% |
| Neptune Insurance Holdings NP | $31.03 | $3.52 | -89% |
| CorVel Corporation CRVL | $62.29 | $47.59 | -24% |
| Accelerant Holdings ARX | $13.52 | $18.06 | +34% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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