Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 8, 2026: fair value of Toyota Industries Corporation $87.42, price $129, upside -32.2%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $45.06 – $132.56 · fair‑value band $53.18 – $110.13 · the $128.96 price screens above the $87.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Toyota Industries Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of textile machinery, materials handling equipment, automobiles, and automobile parts in Japan, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through the Automobile, Materials Handling, and Textile Machinery segments.
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Toyota Industries Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of textile machinery, materials handling equipment, automobiles, and automobile parts in Japan, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through the Automobile, Materials Handling, and Textile Machinery segments. It provides internal combustion telematics, lift truck training, and end-to-end warehouse solutions, as well as electric lift trucks comprising reach trucks, pallet jacks, pallet stackers, sit-down and stand-up counterbalanced lift trucks, order pickers, and turret trucks under the TOYOTA, RAYMOND, and CESAB brands. The company also offers vehicles; engines, including engines for automobiles, industrial engines, foundry parts, and turbochargers; car air-conditioning compressors comprising electric compressors, continuous variable-displacement type and fixed-displacement type compressors, aluminum die-cast products, and products for fuel cell electric vehicles; car electronics, such as DC-DC converters, DC-AC inverters, and on-board chargers; batteries; and stamping dies. In addition, it develops, manufactures, and markets textile machinery, including weaving and spinning machineries. Toyota Industries Corporation was incorporated in 1926 and is headquartered in Kariya-shi, Japan.
Stock analysis
Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY) currently trades at $128.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $87.42, 32.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $96.93 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the $128.96 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $15.32, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $53.18 (bear) to $110.13 (bull), the price of $128.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Toyota Industries Corporation reported revenue of ¥4.6T in FY2026 versus ¥2.7T in FY2022, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥237B in FY2026, compounding +7.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $38.7B · P/E ratio 27.0 · P/S ratio 1.38 · EPS (TTM) $4.77 · Net margin 5.1% · Return on equity 3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1% · Operating margin 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −32%, TYIDY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $53.18Fair Value $87.42Bull $110.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.39 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.6% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+10.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.9% vs 6.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.5% a year for the price.
Compare Toyota Industries Corporation with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 148 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−32.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.8% · Below median
Return on assets0.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)5.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)27.0× · Pricier than median
P/B0.89× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.39× · Pricier than median
P/FCF29.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA13.9× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)66· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)15· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)92· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $87.42 versus the last price from Sep 8, 2026 of $128.96, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TYIDY?
Our model-based fair value for Toyota Industries Corporation is $87.42 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 8, 2026): $128.96.
What is the quality score of TYIDY?
Toyota Industries Corporation has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $87.42 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $53.18, optimistic scenario $110.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Toyota Industries Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $87.42, about −32% upside versus the last price from Sep 8, 2026 of $128.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $53.18, optimistic scenario $110.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY)?
Toyota Industries Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥4.4T (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Toyota Industries Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +15.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.9 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TYIDY use?
Our models discount Toyota Industries Corporation at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Toyota Industries Corporation that is +15.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Toyota Industries Corporation grew +16.9 % a year. The price currently implies +15.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Toyota Industries Corporation (+15.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.38 %: that much free cash flow Toyota Industries Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Toyota Industries Corporation it is $87.42 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $128.96. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Toyota Industries Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, TYIDY trades above its calculated fair value: price $128.96, fair value $87.42, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TYIDY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($128.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($87.42). For Toyota Industries Corporation the two are $41.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Toyota Industries Corporation worth?
The market values Toyota Industries Corporation at about $38.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $128.96; our models calculate a fair value of $87.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TYIDY?
Our models span a range for Toyota Industries Corporation: cautious scenario $53.18, base $87.42, optimistic $110.13 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $128.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TYIDY?
Toyota Industries Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.0 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $87.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 13.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Toyota Industries Corporation (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 3.8%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TYIDY from its 52-week high?
Toyota Industries Corporation trades at $128.96, about 3% below its 52-week high of $132.56 and 21% above the low of $106.89 (as of Sep 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $87.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Toyota Industries Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Toyota Industries Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $128.96, calculated fair value $87.42 (−32%), Quality Score 48/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TYIDY calculated?
We run Toyota Industries Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $87.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Toyota Industries Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 8, 2026 and stands at $128.96. Our model-based fair value is $87.42, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Toyota Industries Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($110.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($53.18 to $110.13) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY) come from?
Earnings per share at Toyota Industries Corporation grew +6.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.8 %, EBIT margin −2.8 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Toyota Industries Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY)?
The market capitalisation of Toyota Industries Corporation is $38.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Toyota Industries Corporation is 1.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY)?
Earnings per share at Toyota Industries Corporation are $4.77 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY)?
The net margin of Toyota Industries Corporation is 5.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Toyota Industries Corporation is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Toyota Industries Corporation is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY)?
The operating margin of Toyota Industries Corporation is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY)?
Revenue at Toyota Industries Corporation is growing +13.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY)?
Earnings per share at Toyota Industries Corporation are growing +166% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY) carry?
The net debt of Toyota Industries Corporation is ¥1.3T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 6.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026