UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · IT · Market cap €112B · ISIN IT0005239360
What is UniCredit S.p.A. really worth?
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of €77.62.
As of Aug 31, 2026, the fair value of UniCredit S.p.A. is €77.62 per share against a price of €83.67, so the fair value sits 7% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −1.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.52 – €86.15 · fair‑value band €58.21 – €97.02 · the €83.67 price screens above the €77.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG) currently trades at €83.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €77.62, implying the stock looks roughly 7.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €63.27 per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the €83.67 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €30.28, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, UniCredit S.p.A. generated revenue of €25.5B at a net margin of 44.6%. Revenue grew 6.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.0%. Net debt stands at €75.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €58.21 (bear case) to €97.02 (bull case); at €83.67, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −7%, UCG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €2.98 per share, which is 3.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€63.27) versus Asset-Based (€30.28). Highest evidence: Residual Income (66).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
UniCredit S.p.A. provides commercial banking services in Italy, Germany, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. The company offers retail, private, and wealth management solutions; and institutional investor solutions.
Full company description
UniCredit S.p.A. provides commercial banking services in Italy, Germany, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. The company offers retail, private, and wealth management solutions; and institutional investor solutions. It also provides corporate finance advisory, rating advisory, financial sponsor, patient capital, capital structure advisory, and sustainable finance solutions, as well as securities services. In addition, the company offers transactional and risk management, structured finance, debt funding, equity funding, project finance, commodity trade finance, and trade and export finance services; group trade and correspondent banking services; and payments solutions. It serves SME, corporate, multinational corporate, financial institution, and public sector clients, as well as retail, private banking, wealth management, and family office clients. UniCredit S.p.A. was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
UniCredit S.p.A. reported revenue of €25.0B in FY2025 versus €18.6B in FY2021, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was €10.9B in FY2025, compounding +63.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Greenvolt secures financing package from Unicredit for BESS projects in Poland
- Accenture (ACN) Following UniCredit Deal And IBM Tie Up Has A Valuation Split
- Accenture (ACN) Expands Banking Role With UniCredit And IBM Partnership
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1070 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must UniCredit S.p.A. deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth. Not a sell signal, but an expectation the company still has to earn. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Valuation of the Italy market
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBS Group D05 | 75.65 SGD | 40.48 SGD | −46% |
| China Merchants Bank Co 3968 | HK$47.96 | HK$76.51 | +60% |
| Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP | €6.78 | €5.66 | −17% |
| HDFC Bank Limited HDB | $23.18 | $24.12 | +4% |
| BNP Paribas SA BNP | €104.54 | €144.64 | +38% |
| Mizuho Financial Group MFG | $10.74 | $9.69 | −10% |
| ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK | ₹1,423 | ₹835.21 | −41% |
| Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 | 31.07 SGD | 19.80 SGD | −36% |
| CaixaBank, S.A CABK | €13.52 | €8.85 | −35% |
| The PNC Financial Services Group PNC | $242.22 | $192.40 | −21% |
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