Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Ultrapar Participações S.A BRL 37.88, price BRL 38.35, upside -1.2%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$9.99 – R$39.74 · fair‑value band R$21.70 – R$52.41 · the R$38.35 price screens above the R$37.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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Ultrapar Participações S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure sectors in Brazil, the rest of Europe, the United States, Canada, other Latin American countries, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Ultragaz, Ipiranga, Ultracargo, and Hidrovias segments.
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Ultrapar Participações S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure sectors in Brazil, the rest of Europe, the United States, Canada, other Latin American countries, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Ultragaz, Ipiranga, Ultracargo, and Hidrovias segments. The company distributes and sells oil-related products, biofuels, gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural gas for vehicles, and additive fuels under the Ipimax brand to carriers, resellers, and retailers; operates service stations under the Ipiranga brand and convenience stores under the AmPm brand; and produces and sells lubricants under the ICONIC brand. It also engages in the distribution of bulk and bottled liquefied petroleum gas for the residential, condominium, trade, services, industrial, and agribusiness sectors; operation of a natural gas pipeline network; and provision of renewable electricity for businesses and households, as well as compressed natural gas and biomethane for corporate clients. In addition, the company operates liquid bulk storage terminals in logistics centers; waterway and multimodal infrastructure; and port operations. Further, the company offers logistics solutions for handling grains, ores, and fertilizers; automotive services through Jet Oil units; and loyalty programs under the Km de Vantagens (KMV) brand. It also exports its products and services. Ultrapar Participações S.A. was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3) currently trades at R$38.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$37.88, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of R$61.00 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$38.35 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$9.85, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$21.70 (bear) to R$52.41 (bull), the price of R$38.35 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Ultrapar Participações S.A reported revenue of R$142B in FY2025 versus R$110B in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was R$2.5B in FY2025, compounding +30.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$42.0B (≈ $8.1B) · P/E ratio 11.4 · P/S ratio 0.20 · EPS (TTM) R$3.35 · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 19.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 102% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −66% fair-value upside, at −1%, UGPA3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$21.70Fair Value R$37.88Bull R$52.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$1.01 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.5% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+26.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.6% vs 7.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.6% a year for the price and −2.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (84 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Ultrapar Participações S.A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−1.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)2.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)7.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth21.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.01× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
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Is Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$37.88 versus a price of R$38.35, about −1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of UGPA3?
Our model-based fair value for Ultrapar Participações S.A is R$37.88 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$38.35.
What is the quality score of UGPA3?
Ultrapar Participações S.A has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$37.88 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$21.70, optimistic scenario R$52.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ultrapar Participações S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$37.88, about −1% upside versus a price of R$38.35 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario R$21.70, optimistic scenario R$52.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3)?
Ultrapar Participações S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$153B (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Ultrapar Participações S.A pay a dividend?
Ultrapar Participações S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.22% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ultrapar Participações S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +24.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.9 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UGPA3 use?
Our models discount Ultrapar Participações S.A at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.26, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ultrapar Participações S.A that is +24.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ultrapar Participações S.A grew +11.9 % a year. The price currently implies +24.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ultrapar Participações S.A (+24.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.69 %: that much free cash flow Ultrapar Participações S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ultrapar Participações S.A it is R$37.88 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of R$38.35. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ultrapar Participações S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, UGPA3 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$38.35, fair value R$37.88, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UGPA3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$38.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$37.88). For Ultrapar Participações S.A the two are R$0.4700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ultrapar Participações S.A worth?
The market values Ultrapar Participações S.A at about R$42.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is R$38.35; our models calculate a fair value of R$37.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UGPA3?
Our models span a range for Ultrapar Participações S.A: cautious scenario R$21.70, base R$37.88, optimistic R$52.41 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price R$38.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UGPA3?
Ultrapar Participações S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.4 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$37.88 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 2.7, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
What is the PEG ratio of UGPA3?
The PEG ratio of Ultrapar Participações S.A is 0.78 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 30, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ultrapar Participações S.A (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 19.8%, debt of 1.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UGPA3 from its 52-week high?
Ultrapar Participações S.A trades at R$38.35, about 3% below its 52-week high of R$39.74 and 102% above the low of R$18.97 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$37.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ultrapar Participações S.A?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ultrapar Participações S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price R$38.35, calculated fair value R$37.88 (−1%), Quality Score 51/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UGPA3 calculated?
We run Ultrapar Participações S.A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$37.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Ultrapar Participações S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was R$38.35. Our model-based fair value is R$37.88, about −1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ultrapar Participações S.A right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (R$21.70 to R$52.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3) come from?
Earnings per share at Ultrapar Participações S.A grew +9.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.9 %, EBIT margin −0.6 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ultrapar Participações S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3)?
The market capitalisation of Ultrapar Participações S.A is R$42.0B (≈ $8.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ultrapar Participações S.A is 0.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3)?
Earnings per share at Ultrapar Participações S.A are R$3.35 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3)?
The dividend yield of Ultrapar Participações S.A is 5.2% (payout 59.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3)?
The net margin of Ultrapar Participações S.A is 1.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ultrapar Participações S.A is 19.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ultrapar Participações S.A is 9.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3)?
The operating margin of Ultrapar Participações S.A is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3)?
Revenue at Ultrapar Participações S.A is growing +21.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3)?
Earnings per share at Ultrapar Participações S.A are growing +44.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGPA3) carry?
The net debt of Ultrapar Participações S.A is R$18.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 30, 2026