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urban-gro, Inc (UGRO) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · US · Market cap $4.9M

UG urban-gro, Inc logo urban-gro, Inc UGRO · US
Price$1.70
Fair Value$2.99
Upside+75.7%
Quality24/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -122.8% net margin
Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (3/10)
Narrow moat 3/100
Evidence: Medium Range $2.24 – $3.73 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026

From 10 valuation models · updated 19 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from $3.03 to $2.99 (−1.3%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −34.9% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 76% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (24/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($2.24). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$412.75 $1.70 Fair Value $2.99 Mar 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.70 – $412.75 · fair‑value band $2.24 – $3.73 · the $1.70 price screens below the $2.99 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

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Analysis

urban-gro, Inc (UGRO) currently trades at $1.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.99, implying the stock looks roughly 75.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $17.4M. Revenue declined 70.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -27.7%. Net debt stands at $3.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $2.24 (bear case) to $3.73 (bull case); at $1.70, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 76%, UGRO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely ($0.0101 to $2.99). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $0.0095 $0.0101 $0.0111 80
Rev-Margin DCF $0.0097 $0.0110 $0.0126 74
EV/EBITDA $2.24 $2.99 $3.73 54
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $0.0095 $0.0101 $0.0112 38
Owner Earnings $1.68 $2.06 $2.71 31
5Y Revenue Exit $0.0097 $0.0109 $0.0127 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $1.04 $1.76 $2.71 41
10Y Revenue Exit $0.0095 $0.0105 $0.0115 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $0.5517 $0.9999 $1.53 37
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $2.24 $2.99 $3.73 54
EV/Revenue $0.0101 $0.0115 $0.0130 43
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $0.0095 $0.0101 $0.0111 80
Rev-Margin DCF $0.0097 $0.0110 $0.0126 74

Widest divergence: Multiples ($0.0115) versus Growth DCF ($0.0101). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $17.4M
Revenue growth (YoY) -70.1%
Net margin -123%
Return on equity -27.7%
Free cash flow $543K FY2025
Operating margin -109%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) $-42.62
Net debt $3.9B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 24/100

Of which business quality 25 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 35
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 4
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 5
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 51
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

urban-gro, Inc. operates as a diversified sports, media, and experiential marketing platform that focuses on the creation, production, and monetization of live events, original content, and branded fan experiences. The company engages in the production, commercialization, and management of professional cricket leagues and international cricket events.

Full company description

urban-gro, Inc. operates as a diversified sports, media, and experiential marketing platform that focuses on the creation, production, and monetization of live events, original content, and branded fan experiences. The company engages in the production, commercialization, and management of professional cricket leagues and international cricket events. It also holds exclusive commercial and media rights to professional cricket leagues; and produces international-standard broadcast content. In addition, the company manages franchise operations; and monetizes sponsorship, ticketing, and digital media opportunities. Further, it provides equipment systems, including commercial horticulture lighting solutions, rolling and automated container benching systems, specialty fans, fertigation/irrigation systems, environmental control systems, and microbial mitigation and odor reduction systems. Additionally, the company operates as a general contractor to provide all the additional necessary parts to deliver clients' projects, from the initial estimate and bid process, to subcontractor selection, and management of all construction details. urban-gro, Inc. was founded in 2014 and is based in Lafayette, Colorado.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

urban-gro, Inc reported revenue of $17.4M in FY2025 versus $62.1M in FY2021, a compound −27.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$22.5M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 18/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$17.4M
Latest YoY
−75.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−36.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.6%
Avg. growth/yr (9Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.6%
Revenue −27.2%/yr
FY21 $62.1M
FY22 $66.3M
FY23 $71.5M
FY24 $71.5M
FY25 $17.4M
Net income
FY21 −$876K
FY22 −$15.3M
FY23 −$18.7M
FY24 −$18.7M
FY25 −$22.5M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "urban-gro, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UGRO

Peer Group

Broadcasting · 69 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 24 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +76% · Top 25%
Return on assets -8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -123% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -109% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -70% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Broadcasting median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.28× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 9.1× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 36
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 0 · sector 3
HEALTH 100 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 47

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Broadcasting stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nexstar Media Group NXST $183.71 $78.52 -57%
SES S.A SESG €7.46 €15.46 +107%
PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk, through its subsidiaries, EMTK 505.00 IDR 1,094 IDR +117%
MFE-Mediaforeurope N.V MFEB €3.64 €5.38 +48%
Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network Corporation 600959 ¥3.07 ¥1.14 -63%
Sun TV Network Limited SUNTV ₹489.20 ₹586.58 +20%
MBC Group 4072 20.06 SAR 19.56 SAR -2%
Beijing Gehua Catv Network Co 600037 ¥7.13 ¥3.64 -49%
PT Surya Citra Media Tbk, SCMA 206.00 IDR 229.91 IDR +12%
Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited ZEEL ₹92.61 ₹53.22 -43%

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Frequently asked questions

Is urban-gro, Inc (UGRO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.99 versus a price of $1.70, about +76% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of UGRO?
Our model-based fair value for urban-gro, Inc is $2.99 (as of Jul 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $1.70.
What is the quality score of UGRO?
urban-gro, Inc has a Quality Score of 24/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of urban-gro, Inc (UGRO)?
urban-gro, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $17.4M (latest available figure, as of Jul 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of UGRO?
The net profit margin of urban-gro, Inc is about -122.8%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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