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Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc $48.75, price $16.25, upside +200.0%, quality 26 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · US · ISIN US91388P1057

UL Universal Logistics Holdings Inc logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Universal Logistics Holdings Inc

ULH · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $48.75 · Strongly undervalued (+200%)
!Quality 26/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +2.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -7.1% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
·2.58% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
!Narrow moat 15/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$50.54 $12.10 Fair Value $48.75 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $12.10 – $50.54 · fair‑value band $29.94 – $48.75 · the $16.25 price screens below the $48.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. provides customized transportation and logistics solutions in the United States, Mexico, Canada, and Colombia. It operates through three segments: Contract Logistics, Intermodal, and Trucking.

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Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. provides customized transportation and logistics solutions in the United States, Mexico, Canada, and Colombia. It operates through three segments: Contract Logistics, Intermodal, and Trucking. The Contract Logistics segment offers value-added and dedicated transportation services to support inbound logistics and industrial manufacturers and major retailers, including material handling, consolidation, sequencing, sub-assembly, cross-dock services, kitting, repacking, warehousing, returnable container management, and rail lift services. This segment also provides dedicated services which involve short-haul or round-trip moves within a defined geographic area provided through a network of union and non-union employee drivers, owner-operators, and contract drivers. The Intermodal segment offers local and regional drayage services through company-managed terminals using a combination of owner-operators, company equipment, and third-party capacity providers comprising steamship-truck, rail-truck, and support services. The Trucking segment engages in dry van, flatbed, heavy-haul and refrigerated operations for transporting various general commodities, such as automotive parts, machinery, building materials, paper, food, consumer goods, furniture, steel, other metals, and other industrial and consumer goods. The company is also involved in brokerage activities, as well as provision of support services. It serves automotive, retail and consumer goods, metals, and energy and manufacturing industries. The company was formerly known as Universal Truckload Services, Inc. and changed its name to Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. in April 2016. Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Warren, Michigan.

Stock analysis

Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH) currently trades at $16.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $48.75, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $13.85 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $16.25 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.23, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $29.94 (bear) to $48.75 (bull), the price of $16.25 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Universal Logistics Holdings Inc reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound −2.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$99.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $428M · P/E ex one-offs 17.6 · P/S ratio 0.26 · EPS (TTM) $−4.15 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin −6.4% · Return on equity −18.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −60% fair-value upside, at 200%, ULH screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $29.94 Fair Value $48.75 Bull $48.75
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM $3.26 $5.87 $8.08 68
DDM Multi-Stage $3.26 $5.23 $6.27 67
EV/EBITDA $51.41 $76.84 $102.26 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $3.26 $5.87 $8.08 68
DDM Multi-Stage $3.26 $5.23 $6.27 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT $4.17 $13.85 $23.53 60
EV/EBITDA $51.41 $76.84 $102.26 66
EV/Revenue n/a $4.74 $13.62 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $10.25 $13.73 $20.49 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 26/100

Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 0
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 19
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 22
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 43
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 43
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 10/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.3% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.8% (2020) → 3.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Trucking · 46 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 26 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.26× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Trucking median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.79× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.28× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 5.5× · Cheaper than median
PEG 3.73× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 14
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)37 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)52 · sector 36

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL $177.72 $174.80 −2%
XPO, Inc XPO $179.92 $72.78 −60%
TFI International Inc TFII $125.04 $112.10 −10%
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX $67.09 $54.86 −18%
Saia, Inc SAIA $348.38 $129.94 −63%
Schneider National, Inc SNDR $32.50 $12.37 −62%
ArcBest Corporation ARCB $131.71 $45.89 −65%
Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN $34.79 $8.24 −76%
Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 ¥4.50 ¥1.27 −72%
Mullen Group MTL C$26.57 C$19.84 −25%

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Universal Logistics Holdings Inc · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Universal Logistics Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ULH

Frequently asked questions

Is Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $48.75 versus a price of $16.25, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ULH?
Our model-based fair value for Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is $48.75 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.25.
What is the quality score of ULH?
Universal Logistics Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $48.75 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $29.94, optimistic scenario $48.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Universal Logistics Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $48.75, about +200% upside versus a price of $16.25 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $29.94, optimistic scenario $48.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
Universal Logistics Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Universal Logistics Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Universal Logistics Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.58% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Universal Logistics Holdings Inc it is $48.75 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $16.25. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Universal Logistics Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ULH trades below its calculated fair value: price $16.25, fair value $48.75, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ULH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($48.75). For Universal Logistics Holdings Inc the two are $32.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Universal Logistics Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Universal Logistics Holdings Inc at about $428M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $16.25; our models calculate a fair value of $48.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ULH?
Our models span a range for Universal Logistics Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $29.94, base $48.75, optimistic $48.75 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $16.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of ULH?
The PEG ratio of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is 3.73 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −18.5%, debt of 1.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 26/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ULH from its 52-week high?
Universal Logistics Holdings Inc trades at $16.25, about 34% below its 52-week high of $24.66 and 34% above the low of $12.10 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $48.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Universal Logistics Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc, XPO, Inc, TFI International Inc, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Universal Logistics Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $16.25, calculated fair value $48.75 (+200%), Quality Score 26/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ULH calculated?
We run Universal Logistics Holdings Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $48.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Universal Logistics Holdings Inc currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $16.25. Our model-based fair value is $48.75, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Universal Logistics Holdings Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (26/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($29.94). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH) come from?
Earnings per share at Universal Logistics Holdings Inc grew +15.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.6 %, EBIT margin +6.3 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
The market capitalisation of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is $428M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is 17.6 (fiscal year 2025, the reported result was a loss).
What is the P/S ratio of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is 0.26 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
Earnings per share at Universal Logistics Holdings Inc are $−4.15. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
The dividend yield of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is 2.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
The net margin of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is −6.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is −18.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is 11.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
The operating margin of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
Revenue at Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is growing −3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
Earnings per share at Universal Logistics Holdings Inc are growing −81.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH) generate?
The free cash flow of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is −$41.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH) carry?
The net debt of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is $945M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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