Universal Logistics Holdings (ULH) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $398M
Universal Logistics Holdings
ULH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from $65.89 to $43.20 (−34.4%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +45.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 115% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (26/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($26.53). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.10 – $50.54 · fair‑value band $26.53 – $43.20 · the $20.07 price screens below the $43.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Universal Logistics Holdings (ULH) currently trades at $20.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $43.20, implying the stock looks roughly 115.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Universal Logistics Holdings generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of -7.1%. Revenue declined 3.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -18.5%. Net debt stands at $945M. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $26.53 (bear case) to $43.20 (bull case); at $20.07, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -70% fair-value upside, at 115%, ULH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($13.85) versus Dividend Discount ($5.23). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. provides customized transportation and logistics solutions in the United States, Mexico, Canada, and Colombia. It operates through three segments: Contract Logistics, Intermodal, and Trucking.
Full company description
Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. provides customized transportation and logistics solutions in the United States, Mexico, Canada, and Colombia. It operates through three segments: Contract Logistics, Intermodal, and Trucking. The Contract Logistics segment offers value-added and dedicated transportation services to support inbound logistics and industrial manufacturers and major retailers, including material handling, consolidation, sequencing, sub-assembly, cross-dock services, kitting, repacking, warehousing, returnable container management, and rail lift services. This segment also provides dedicated services which involve short-haul or round-trip moves within a defined geographic area provided through a network of union and non-union employee drivers, owner-operators, and contract drivers. The Intermodal segment offers local and regional drayage services through company-managed terminals using a combination of owner-operators, company equipment, and third-party capacity providers comprising steamship-truck, rail-truck, and support services. The Trucking segment engages in dry van, flatbed, heavy-haul and refrigerated operations for transporting various general commodities, such as automotive parts, machinery, building materials, paper, food, consumer goods, furniture, steel, other metals, and other industrial and consumer goods. The company is also involved in brokerage activities, as well as provision of support services. It serves automotive, retail and consumer goods, metals, and energy and manufacturing industries. The company was formerly known as Universal Truckload Services, Inc. and changed its name to Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. in April 2016. Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Warren, Michigan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Universal Logistics Holdings reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound −2.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$99.9M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +5.3 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
Peer Group
Trucking · 46 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL | $225.23 | $103.37 | -54% |
| XPO, Inc XPO | $219.29 | $56.52 | -74% |
| TFI International Inc TFII | $155.83 | $110.79 | -29% |
| Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX | $75.19 | $8.58 | -89% |
| Saia, Inc SAIA | $438.29 | $129.64 | -70% |
| Schneider National, Inc SNDR | $38.19 | $12.37 | -68% |
| RXO, Inc RXO | $27.07 | $3.48 | -87% |
| ArcBest Corporation ARCB | $147.13 | $45.89 | -69% |
| Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN | $46.04 | $8.24 | -82% |
| Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 | ¥4.55 | ¥1.20 | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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