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Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc stock $65.90, price $27.12, upside +143.0%, quality 27 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 4 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials US

UL Universal Logistics Holdings Inc logo Some data Nov 8, 2026

Universal Logistics Holdings Inc

ULH · US
Cheap, value-trap risk

The stock costs 59% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $65.90 · Strongly undervalued
Generates free cash flow over the last twelve months
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 49% above the price ($40.47).
Thin margins · 2.9% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
Some data
Quality 27/100
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −8.2 %/yr in USD)
1.5% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
Trails peers (4/11)
Narrow moat 24/100
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$50.26 $12.03 Fair Value $65.90 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $12.03 – $50.26 · fair‑value band $40.47 – $91.32 · the $27.12 price screens below the $65.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. provides customized transportation and logistics solutions in the United States, Mexico, Canada, and Colombia. It operates through three segments: Contract Logistics, Intermodal, and Trucking.

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The Contract Logistics segment offers value-added and dedicated transportation services to support inbound logistics and industrial manufacturers and major retailers, including material handling, consolidation, sequencing, sub-assembly, cross-dock services, kitting, repacking, warehousing, returnable container management, and rail lift services.

This segment also provides dedicated services which involve short-haul or round-trip moves within a defined geographic area provided through a network of union and non-union employee drivers, owner-operators, and contract drivers.

The Intermodal segment offers local and regional drayage services through company-managed terminals using a combination of owner-operators, company equipment, and third-party capacity providers comprising steamship-truck, rail-truck, and support services.

The Trucking segment engages in dry van, flatbed, heavy-haul and refrigerated operations for transporting various general commodities, such as automotive parts, machinery, building materials, paper, food, consumer goods, furniture, steel, other metals, and other industrial and consumer goods.

The company is also involved in brokerage activities, as well as provision of support services. It serves automotive, retail and consumer goods, metals, and energy and manufacturing industries.

The company was formerly known as Universal Truckload Services, Inc. and changed its name to Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. in April 2016. Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Warren, Michigan.

Stock analysis

Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH) currently trades at $27.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $65.90, implying the stock looks roughly 59% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $34.40 per share, and 1 of the 3 models we run sit above the $27.12 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.29, and 2 of the 3 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $40.47 (bear) to $91.32 (bull), the price of $27.12 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Universal Logistics Holdings Inc reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound −2.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$99.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $715M Small · P/E ratio 452.0 · P/S ratio 0.39 · EPS (TTM) $0.0600 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin −6.4% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.1% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 125% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at 143%, ULH screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $40.47 Fair Value $65.90 Bull $91.32
Price $27.12 · Upside +143.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EV/EBITDA $40.47 $65.90 $91.32 66
EV/EBIT n/a $2.90 >$11.60 61
NCAV (Graham) $6.18 $8.29 $12.37 54
All 4 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBIT n/a $2.90 >$11.60 61
EV/EBITDA $40.47 $65.90 $91.32 66
EV/Revenue n/a n/a $2.68 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.18 $8.29 $12.37 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 27/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 16
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 0
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 19
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 23
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 43
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 41
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 85
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 87
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 81
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 24/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.3% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.8% (2020) → 3.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Trucking · 44 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +143.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 7.7% · Above median
Return on assets −5.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 2.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 7.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −0.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.26× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Trucking median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 452.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG 3.73× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)31 · sector 13
HEALTH (low debt)37 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)31 · sector 35

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX $58.41 $93.46 +60% vs ULH
TFI International Inc TFII $94.94 $112.09 +18% vs ULH
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL $164.92 $174.14 +6% vs ULH
Mullen Group MTL C$28.74 C$19.85 −31% vs ULH
Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN $26.95 $16.48 −39% vs ULH
Schneider National, Inc SNDR $27.81 $16.20 −42% vs ULH
Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 ¥3.98 ¥1.96 −51% vs ULH
ArcBest Corporation ARCB $127.91 $52.83 −59% vs ULH
XPO, Inc XPO $176.95 $71.58 −60% vs ULH
Saia, Inc SAIA $331.90 $126.27 −62% vs ULH

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Universal Logistics Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ULH

Frequently asked questions

Is Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $65.90 versus a price of $27.12, about +143% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ULH?
Our model-based fair value for Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is $65.90 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $27.12.
What is the quality score of ULH?
Universal Logistics Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $65.90 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $40.47, optimistic scenario $91.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Universal Logistics Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $65.90, about +143% upside versus a price of $27.12 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $40.47, optimistic scenario $91.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
Universal Logistics Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Universal Logistics Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Universal Logistics Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.55% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Universal Logistics Holdings Inc pays a dividend of $0.42 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.5%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 1, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2011. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What is the intrinsic value of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Universal Logistics Holdings Inc it is $65.90 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $27.12. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is Universal Logistics Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, ULH trades below its calculated fair value: price $27.12, fair value $65.90, a gap of about +143% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ULH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($27.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($65.90). For Universal Logistics Holdings Inc the two are $38.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Universal Logistics Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Universal Logistics Holdings Inc at about $715M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $27.12; our models calculate a fair value of $65.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ULH?
Our models span a range for Universal Logistics Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $40.47, base $65.90, optimistic $91.32 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $27.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ULH?
Universal Logistics Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 452.0 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $65.90 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 29.3 (the reported result was a loss). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 10.7. Other multiples: PEG 3.7.
What is the PEG ratio of ULH?
The PEG ratio of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is 3.73 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 1.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ULH from its 52-week high?
Universal Logistics Holdings Inc trades at $27.12, about 17% below its 52-week high of $32.72 and 125% above the low of $12.03 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $65.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Universal Logistics Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc, XPO, Inc, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, Saia, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Universal Logistics Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $27.12, calculated fair value $65.90 (+143%), Quality Score 27/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ULH calculated?
We run Universal Logistics Holdings Inc through 4 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $65.90 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Universal Logistics Holdings Inc currently trades 59% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $27.12. Our model-based fair value is $65.90, about +143% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Universal Logistics Holdings Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (27/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($40.47). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($40.47 to $91.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH) come from?
Earnings per share at Universal Logistics Holdings Inc grew +15.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.6 %, EBIT margin +6.3 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
The market capitalisation of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is $715M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is 0.39 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
Earnings per share at Universal Logistics Holdings Inc are $0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 452.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
The dividend yield of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is 1.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
The net margin of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is −6.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is 11.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
The operating margin of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
Revenue at Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is growing −0.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH)?
Earnings per share at Universal Logistics Holdings Inc are growing +214% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH) generate?
The free cash flow of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is −$41.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (ULH) carry?
The net debt of Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is $945M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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