Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS TRY 207, price TRY 85.45, upside +142.1%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 12.37 TRY – 164.85 TRY · fair‑value band 141.93 TRY – 272.64 TRY · the 85.45 TRY price screens below the 206.83 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi A.S., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells biscuits, chocolates, chocolate coated biscuits, wafers, and cakes in Turkey and internationally. The company also offers spread chocolate, crackers, Bebe biscuits, light snacks, gum, gift chocolates and candies, kid's snacks, and food supplements.
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Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi A.S., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells biscuits, chocolates, chocolate coated biscuits, wafers, and cakes in Turkey and internationally. The company also offers spread chocolate, crackers, Bebe biscuits, light snacks, gum, gift chocolates and candies, kid's snacks, and food supplements. It is also involved in trading and investment services. The company was founded in 1944 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER) currently trades at 85.45 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 206.83 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 58.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 563.42 TRY per share, and 25 of the 26 models we run sit above the 85.45 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 78.57 TRY, and 1 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 141.93 TRY (bear) to 272.64 TRY (bull), the price of 85.45 TRY sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS reported revenue of 112B TRY in FY2025 versus 12.5B TRY in FY2021, a compound +72.8%/yr. Reported net income was 4.9B TRY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 31.6B TRY (≈ $642M) · P/E ratio 8.7 · P/S ratio 0.38 · EPS (TTM) 9.82 TRY · Dividend yield 12.1% · Net margin 4.4% · Return on equity 8.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 142%, ULKER screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 141.93 TRYFair Value 206.83 TRYBull 272.64 TRY
Price 85.45 TRY · Upside +142.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (7.45 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+58.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+64.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +40.3% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+48.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+36.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)12.1%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 16%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+19.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.8% a year for the price and +0.5% for the forecasts.
Compare Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+142.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.5% · Above median
Return on assets5.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)3.4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)12.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.92× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ULKER
Frequently asked questions
Is Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 206.83 TRY versus a price of 85.45 TRY, about +142% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ULKER?
Our model-based fair value for Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS is 206.83 TRY (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 85.45 TRY.
What is the quality score of ULKER?
Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 206.83 TRY (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 141.93 TRY, optimistic scenario 272.64 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 206.83 TRY, about +142% upside versus a price of 85.45 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 141.93 TRY, optimistic scenario 272.64 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER)?
Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 107B TRY (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS pay a dividend?
Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS currently shows a dividend yield of about 12.11% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS would have to grow free cash flow by +14.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +64.1 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ULKER use?
Our models discount Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS at 14.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS that is +14.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS grew +64.1 % a year. The price currently implies +14.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (+14.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.20 %: that much free cash flow Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS it is 206.83 TRY per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of 85.45 TRY. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, ULKER trades below its calculated fair value: price 85.45 TRY, fair value 206.83 TRY, a gap of about +142% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ULKER?
No. The price is what the market pays today (85.45 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (206.83 TRY). For Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS the two are 121.38 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS worth?
The market values Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS at about 31.6B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is 85.45 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 206.83 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ULKER?
Our models span a range for Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS: cautious scenario 141.93 TRY, base 206.83 TRY, optimistic 272.64 TRY per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price 85.45 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ULKER?
Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.7 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 206.83 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 0.7, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.4.
What is the PEG ratio of ULKER?
The PEG ratio of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS is 0.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 8.5%, debt of 0.92 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ULKER from its 52-week high?
Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS trades at 85.45 TRY, about 35% below its 52-week high of 132.28 TRY and 2% above the low of 83.45 TRY (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 206.83 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Barry Callebaut AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price 85.45 TRY, calculated fair value 206.83 TRY (+142%), Quality Score 39/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ULKER calculated?
We run Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 206.83 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS currently trades 59 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 85.45 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 206.83 TRY, about +142% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (141.93 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (141.93 TRY to 272.64 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER)?
The market capitalisation of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS is 31.6B TRY (≈ $642M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS is 0.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER)?
Earnings per share at Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS are 9.82 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER)?
The dividend yield of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS is 12.1% (payout 105%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER)?
The net margin of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS is 4.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS is 14.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER)?
The operating margin of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER)?
Revenue at Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS is growing −11.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +58.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER)?
Earnings per share at Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS are growing +45.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (ULKER) carry?
The net debt of Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS is 34.0B TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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