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PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk, (UNSP) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · ID · Market cap 515B IDR

PB PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk, UNSP · JK
Price206.00 IDR
Fair Value135.67 IDR
Upside-34.1%
Quality48/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 9.3% net margin
Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (9/12)
Moderate moat 49/100
Evidence: High Range 101.75 IDR – 263.31 IDR Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated today

Below-average quality, and screening another 34% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (101.75 IDR to 263.31 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

600.00 IDR 70.00 IDR Fair Value 135.67 IDR Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 70.00 IDR – 600.00 IDR · fair‑value band 101.75 IDR – 263.31 IDR · the 206.00 IDR price screens above the 135.67 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk, (UNSP) currently trades at 206.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 135.67 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 34.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk, generated revenue of 2.6T IDR at a net margin of 9.3%. Revenue grew 12.8% year over year. Net debt stands at 4.3T IDR. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 2.1 (as of Jul 12, 2026). Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 101.75 IDR (bear case) to 263.31 IDR (bull case); at 206.00 IDR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 67% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 97% fair-value upside, at -34%, UNSP screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 303.00 IDR 385.00 IDR 506.82 IDR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 866.29 IDR 1,427 IDR 2,051 IDR 74
ROIC Compounder 1,281 IDR 1,483 IDR 1,663 IDR 72
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 298.96 IDR 389.55 IDR 531.82 IDR 38
5Y Revenue Exit 866.29 IDR 1,441 IDR 2,182 IDR 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 1,421 IDR 2,464 IDR 3,682 IDR 41
5Y P/E Exit 251.33 IDR 307.65 IDR 365.06 IDR 38
10Y Revenue Exit 631.64 IDR 1,118 IDR 1,780 IDR 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 1,025 IDR 1,839 IDR 2,936 IDR 37
10Y P/E Exit 266.65 IDR 319.28 IDR 380.64 IDR 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 43.93 IDR 126.46 IDR 166.83 IDR 54
Lynch FV 26.05 IDR 37.21 IDR 48.38 IDR 50
PEG = 1.0 26.05 IDR 37.21 IDR 48.38 IDR 46
EPV 1,281 IDR 1,483 IDR 1,663 IDR 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 240.24 IDR 524.48 IDR 882.45 IDR 70
DDM Multi-Stage 240.24 IDR 391.58 IDR 546.59 IDR 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 101.75 IDR 135.67 IDR 169.59 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 82.37 IDR 109.83 IDR 137.28 IDR 58
EV/EBIT 2,049 IDR 2,687 IDR 3,325 IDR 53
EV/EBITDA 2,234 IDR 2,934 IDR 3,633 IDR 54
EV/Revenue 1,211 IDR 1,671 IDR 2,131 IDR 43
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 303.00 IDR 385.00 IDR 506.82 IDR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 866.29 IDR 1,427 IDR 2,051 IDR 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 1,281 IDR 1,483 IDR 1,663 IDR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 81.95 IDR 117.07 IDR 152.19 IDR 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (1,671 IDR) versus Earnings-Based (37.21 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.6T IDR
Revenue growth (YoY) +12.8%
Net margin 9.3%
Free cash flow 34.5B IDR FY2025
P/E ratio 2.1 as of Jul 12, 2026
Operating margin 12.6%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) 97.27 IDR
EPS growth (YoY) -94.9%
Net debt 4.3T IDR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 45
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 16
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 68
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 59
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the plantation, processing, and trading of agricultural and industrial products in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Palm Oil and Derivatives and Rubber segments.

Full company description

PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the plantation, processing, and trading of agricultural and industrial products in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Palm Oil and Derivatives and Rubber segments. The company is involved in the development and maintenance of palm oil for use in the food and non-food industry, such as cooking oil, margarine, ice cream, soaps, and detergents, as well as animal feed, cosmetics, industrial lubricants, and biofuels. It also develops and maintains rubber for the tire industry and other industries, including footwear, gloves, and contraceptives. The company was formerly known as United Sumatera Plantations and changed its name to PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk in 1991. PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk was founded in 1911 and is headquartered in Medan, Indonesia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk, reported revenue of 2.6T IDR in FY2025 versus 4.0T IDR in FY2021, a compound −10.4%/yr. Reported net income was 16.2B IDR in FY2025, compounding −40.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.6T IDR
Latest YoY
+9.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−15.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.4%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.2%
Revenue −10.4%/yr
FY21 4.0T IDR
FY22 4.2T IDR
FY23 2.4T IDR
FY24 2.3T IDR
FY25 2.6T IDR
Net income −40.5%/yr
FY21 129B IDR
FY22 930B IDR
FY23 62.7B IDR
FY24 139B IDR
FY25 16.2B IDR

UNSP screens 34% overvalued. Compare with Muyuan Foods Group →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk, Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UNSP

Peer Group

Farm Products · 299 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside −34% · Below median
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 13% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 2.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.20× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.44× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 25
FUTURE 64 · sector 22
PAST 0 · sector 18
HEALTH 100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 37

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Muyuan Foods Group 002714 ¥40.15 ¥47.42 +18%
PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN 3,150 IDR 6,818 IDR +116%
Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF 21.90 THB 43.24 THB +97%
PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk TAPG 1,805 IDR 3,087 IDR +71%
PT FAP Agri Tbk FAPA 7,350 IDR 6,420 IDR -13%
PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk JPFA 2,260 IDR 6,974 IDR +209%
PT Jhonlin Agro Raya Tbk JARR 1,890 IDR 610.80 IDR -68%
PT Nusantara Sawit Sejahtera Tbk NSSS 860.00 IDR 402.24 IDR -53%
PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology Tbk SMAR 5,625 IDR 16,227 IDR +188%
PT Dharma Satya Nusantara Tbk DSNG 1,320 IDR 2,696 IDR +104%

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Frequently asked questions

Is PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk, (UNSP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 135.67 IDR versus a price of 206.00 IDR, about −34% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UNSP?
Our model-based fair value for PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk, is 135.67 IDR (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 206.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of UNSP?
PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk, has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk, (UNSP)?
PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.6T IDR (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of UNSP?
The net profit margin of PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk, is about 9.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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