Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations IDR 597, price IDR 336, upside +77.7%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 70.00 IDR – 600.00 IDR · fair‑value band 469.45 IDR – 758.32 IDR · the 336.00 IDR price screens below the 596.90 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the plantation, processing, and trading of agricultural and industrial products in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Palm Oil and Derivatives and Rubber segments.
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PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the plantation, processing, and trading of agricultural and industrial products in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Palm Oil and Derivatives and Rubber segments. The company is involved in the development and maintenance of palm oil for use in the food and non-food industry, such as cooking oil, margarine, ice cream, soaps, and detergents, as well as animal feed, cosmetics, industrial lubricants, and biofuels. It also develops and maintains rubber for the tire industry and other industries, including footwear, gloves, and contraceptives. The company was formerly known as United Sumatera Plantations and changed its name to PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk in 1991. PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk was founded in 1911 and is headquartered in Medan, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP) currently trades at 336.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 596.90 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 43.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 1,671 IDR per share, and 14 of the 20 models we run sit above the 336.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at 117.07 IDR, and 6 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 469.45 IDR (bear) to 758.32 IDR (bull), the price of 336.00 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Bakrie Sumatera Plantations reported revenue of 2.6T IDR in FY2025 versus 4.0T IDR in FY2021, a compound −10.4%/yr. Reported net income was 16.2B IDR in FY2025, compounding −40.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 840B IDR (≈ $46.9M) · P/E ratio 2.1 · P/S ratio 0.01 · EPS (TTM) 97.27 IDR · Net margin 0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% · Operating margin 12.6% · Revenue (TTM) 2.6T IDR.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 111% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 78%, UNSP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 469.45 IDRFair Value 596.90 IDRBull 758.32 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (72.22 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.4% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−34.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−34.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−14% → 15%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+52.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +48.4% a year for the price.
Compare Bakrie Sumatera Plantations with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 296 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+77.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets7.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9.3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)12.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)2.1× · Cheapest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.32× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA0.9× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.44× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)64· sector 17
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 46
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UNSP
Frequently asked questions
Is Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 596.90 IDR versus a price of 336.00 IDR, about +78% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of UNSP?
Our model-based fair value for Bakrie Sumatera Plantations is 596.90 IDR (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 336.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of UNSP?
Bakrie Sumatera Plantations has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 596.90 IDR (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario 469.45 IDR, optimistic scenario 758.32 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bakrie Sumatera Plantations stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 596.90 IDR, about +78% upside versus a price of 336.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 469.45 IDR, optimistic scenario 758.32 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP)?
Bakrie Sumatera Plantations reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.6T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bakrie Sumatera Plantations would have to grow free cash flow by +52.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.4 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UNSP use?
Our models discount Bakrie Sumatera Plantations at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bakrie Sumatera Plantations that is +52.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bakrie Sumatera Plantations grew +0.4 % a year. The price currently implies +52.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (+52.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.11 %: that much free cash flow Bakrie Sumatera Plantations produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bakrie Sumatera Plantations it is 596.90 IDR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 336.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bakrie Sumatera Plantations stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, UNSP trades below its calculated fair value: price 336.00 IDR, fair value 596.90 IDR, a gap of about +78% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UNSP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (336.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (596.90 IDR). For Bakrie Sumatera Plantations the two are 260.90 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bakrie Sumatera Plantations worth?
The market values Bakrie Sumatera Plantations at about 840B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 336.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 596.90 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UNSP?
Our models span a range for Bakrie Sumatera Plantations: cautious scenario 469.45 IDR, base 596.90 IDR, optimistic 758.32 IDR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 336.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UNSP?
Bakrie Sumatera Plantations trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.1 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 596.90 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 0.9.
What is the PEG ratio of UNSP?
The PEG ratio of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations is 0.44 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (as of Sep 27, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UNSP from its 52-week high?
Bakrie Sumatera Plantations trades at 336.00 IDR, about 44% below its 52-week high of 600.00 IDR and 111% above the low of 159.00 IDR (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 596.90 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bakrie Sumatera Plantations?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bakrie Sumatera Plantations stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 336.00 IDR, calculated fair value 596.90 IDR (+78%), Quality Score 48/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UNSP calculated?
We run Bakrie Sumatera Plantations through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 596.90 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Bakrie Sumatera Plantations currently trades 78 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was 336.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 596.90 IDR, about +78% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bakrie Sumatera Plantations right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (469.45 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations
How large is the market capitalisation of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP)?
The market capitalisation of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations is 840B IDR (≈ $46.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations is 0.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP)?
Earnings per share at Bakrie Sumatera Plantations are 97.27 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP)?
The net margin of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations is 0.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP)?
The operating margin of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP)?
Revenue at Bakrie Sumatera Plantations is growing +12.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP)?
Earnings per share at Bakrie Sumatera Plantations are growing −94.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP) carry?
The net debt of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations is 4.3T IDR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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