U.S. Bancorp (USB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of U.S. Bancorp stock $43.93, price $61.03, that is 28.0% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.50 – $64.81 · fair‑value band $38.20 – $63.13 · the $61.03 price screens above the $43.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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U.S. Bancorp, a financial services holding company, provides various financial services to individuals, businesses, institutional organizations, governmental entities, and other financial institutions in the United States.
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The company operates through Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking; Consumer and Business Banking; Payment Services; and Treasury and Corporate Support segments.
It offers depository services, including checking accounts, savings accounts, and time certificate contracts; and lending services, such as traditional credit products and credit card services, lease financing and import/export trade, agricultural finance, asset-backed lending, and other products.
The company also provides cash management, capital markets, and trust and investment management services; and ancillary services comprising capital markets, treasury management, and receivable lock-box collection services to corporate and governmental entity customers.
In addition, it offers asset management and fiduciary services for individuals, estates, foundations, business corporations, and charitable organizations; and investment and insurance products to its customers principally within its domestic markets, as well as fund administration services to mutual and other funds.
Further, the company provides corporate and purchasing card, and corporate trust services; and credit card services, merchant and ATM processing, mortgage banking, insurance, brokerage and leasing services. U.S. Bancorp was founded in 1863 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Stock analysis
U.S. Bancorp (USB) currently trades at $61.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $43.93, 28% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $43.93 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $61.03 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $20.49, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $38.20 (bear) to $63.13 (bull), the price of $61.03 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
U.S. Bancorp reported revenue of $42.9B in FY2025 versus $23.7B in FY2021, a compound +15.9%/yr. Reported net income was $7.6B in FY2025, compounding −1.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $94.9B Large · P/E ratio 11.9 · P/S ratio 3.40 · EPS (TTM) $5.14 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 30.0% · Return on equity 12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −28%, USB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$38.20Fair Value $43.93Bull$63.13
Price $61.03 · Downside -28.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.58 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.94/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.3% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.2% vs 3.9%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 22%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−24.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −26.1% a year for the price and −3.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Average positioning in competitive regional banking without a clear moat forms the main weakness, while the main strength lies in expanding fee income through payments, small-business services and capital markets.
Main risk: Ongoing regulatory oversight and potential enforcement actions for Bank Secrecy Act and anti-money laundering shortfalls could impose fines, operational restrictions or remediation costs that squeeze margins in core banking activities.
Bull case: By strengthening compliance frameworks and leveraging its payments and capital markets platforms the bank could turn regulatory demands into a competitive edge while capturing more fee revenue from integrated services.
Bear case: Persistent compliance issues or integration shortfalls could trigger repeated fines and higher costs that erode fee income gains and constrain expansion in capital markets and payments.
U.S. Bancorp delivered record third-quarter revenue with fee income up sharply and raised its full-year growth outlook. The bank is pushing harder into payments, small-business services and capital markets to lift the share of non-interest revenue. Our models still see the shares as overvalued in a regional banking environment. Can the push into higher-fee businesses deliver durable gains, or will margin pressure from deposits and lending cap the benefits?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1002 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−28.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.8% · Above median
Return on assets1.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)30.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)40.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.93× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.9× · Pricier than median
P/B1.46× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.40× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow11.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA10.6× · Pricier than median
PEG1.79× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)42· sector 48
PAST (return on equity)51· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)53· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)69· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "U.S. Bancorp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/USB
Frequently asked questions
Is U.S. Bancorp (USB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $43.93 versus a price of $61.03, about 28% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of USB?
Our model-based fair value for U.S. Bancorp is $43.93 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $61.03.
What is the quality score of USB?
U.S. Bancorp has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for U.S. Bancorp (USB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $43.93 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $38.20, optimistic scenario $63.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the U.S. Bancorp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $43.93, about 28% lower versus a price of $61.03 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $38.20, optimistic scenario $63.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of U.S. Bancorp (USB)?
U.S. Bancorp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $27.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does U.S. Bancorp pay a dividend?
U.S. Bancorp currently shows a dividend yield of 3.44% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into U.S. Bancorp (USB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, U.S. Bancorp would have to grow free cash flow by -24.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.2 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of USB use?
Our models discount U.S. Bancorp at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.02, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For U.S. Bancorp that is -24.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has U.S. Bancorp (USB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at U.S. Bancorp grew +11.2 % a year. The price currently implies -24.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of U.S. Bancorp (USB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into U.S. Bancorp (-24.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of U.S. Bancorp (USB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.40 %: that much free cash flow U.S. Bancorp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of U.S. Bancorp (USB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For U.S. Bancorp it is $43.93 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $61.03. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is U.S. Bancorp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, USB trades above its calculated fair value: price $61.03, fair value $43.93, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of USB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($61.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($43.93). For U.S. Bancorp the two are $17.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is U.S. Bancorp worth?
The market values U.S. Bancorp at about $94.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $61.03; our models calculate a fair value of $43.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about USB?
Our models span a range for U.S. Bancorp: cautious scenario $38.20, base $43.93, optimistic $63.13 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $61.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of USB?
U.S. Bancorp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $43.93 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 12.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 1.5, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 10.6.
What is the PEG ratio of USB?
The PEG ratio of U.S. Bancorp is 1.79 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of U.S. Bancorp (USB)?
Balance-sheet figures for U.S. Bancorp (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 12.8%, debt of 0.93 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is USB from its 52-week high?
U.S. Bancorp trades at $61.03, about 6% below its 52-week high of $64.81 and 39% above the low of $43.79 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $43.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to U.S. Bancorp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is U.S. Bancorp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $61.03, calculated fair value $43.93 (−28%), Quality Score 60/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of USB calculated?
We run U.S. Bancorp through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $43.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. U.S. Bancorp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of U.S. Bancorp (USB)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $61.03. Our model-based fair value is $43.93, about 28% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with U.S. Bancorp right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of U.S. Bancorp (USB) come from?
Earnings per share at U.S. Bancorp grew +2.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.2 %, EBIT margin −7.0 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of U.S. Bancorp
How large is the market capitalisation of U.S. Bancorp (USB)?
The market capitalisation of U.S. Bancorp is $94.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of U.S. Bancorp (USB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of U.S. Bancorp is 3.40 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of U.S. Bancorp (USB)?
Earnings per share at U.S. Bancorp are $5.14 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of U.S. Bancorp (USB)?
The dividend yield of U.S. Bancorp is 3.4% (payout 40.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of U.S. Bancorp (USB)?
The net margin of U.S. Bancorp is 30.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of U.S. Bancorp (USB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of U.S. Bancorp is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of U.S. Bancorp (USB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of U.S. Bancorp is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of U.S. Bancorp (USB)?
The operating margin of U.S. Bancorp is 40.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at U.S. Bancorp (USB)?
Revenue at U.S. Bancorp is growing +8.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at U.S. Bancorp (USB)?
Earnings per share at U.S. Bancorp are growing +10.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does U.S. Bancorp (USB) carry?
The net debt of U.S. Bancorp is $31.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026