Vault Minerals Limited (VAU) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$5.1B
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price +21.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 33% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$4.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.8334 – A$6.20 · fair‑value band A$2.83 – A$4.67 · the A$5.84 price screens above the A$3.92 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Vault Minerals Limited (VAU) currently trades at A$5.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.92, implying the stock looks roughly 32.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Vault Minerals Limited generated revenue of A$1.6B at a net margin of 5.3%. Revenue grew 20.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$576M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$2.83 (bear case) to A$4.67 (bull case); at A$5.84, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 153% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -33%, VAU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$9.86) versus Asset-Based (A$1.29). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vault Minerals Limited engages in the exploration, mine development, mine operations and the sale of gold and gold/copper concentrate in Australia and Canada.
Full company description
Vault Minerals Limited engages in the exploration, mine development, mine operations and the sale of gold and gold/copper concentrate in Australia and Canada. The company operates through Leonora Operations (King of the Hills and Darlot operations), Mount Monger Operation, Deflector Region (Deflector and Rothsay operations), and Sugar Zone Operation segments. The company was formerly known as Red 5 Limited and changed its name to Vault Minerals Limited in September 2024. Vault Minerals Limited was incorporated in 1995 and is based in South Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vault Minerals Limited reported revenue of A$1.4B in FY2025 versus A$190M in FY2021, a compound +65.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$237M in FY2025.
VAU screens 33% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Genesis, Vault Create A$13 Billion Australian Gold Mining Giant
- Genesis and Vault Minerals sign $8.7bn merger agreement
- Regis Resources Vault Minerals Merger Creates New Gold Scale And Questions
- Regis And Vault Forge A$10.7 Billion Gold Giant
Peer Group
Gold · 259 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $112.00 | $132.73 | +19% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥28.36 | ¥30.58 | +8% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$191.93 | C$154.33 | -20% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $34.93 | $50.66 | +45% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$152.57 | C$52.47 | -66% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | C$284.75 | C$97.76 | -66% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $76.35 | $88.63 | +16% |
| Gold Fields Limited GFI | $33.33 | $59.06 | +77% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $22.57 | $34.62 | +53% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$20.48 | A$15.98 | -22% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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