VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 19, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of VBG Group AB (publ) stock SEK 346, price SEK 313, upside +10.6%, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 102.97 – kr 485.42 · fair‑value band kr 198.04 – kr 450.03 · the kr 313.00 price screens below the kr 346.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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VBG Group AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells various industrial products in Sweden, Germany, rest of the Nordic countries and Europe, North America, Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, China, and internationally.
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It operates in three segments: Truck & Trailer Equipment, Mobile Thermal Solutions, and Ringfeder Power Transmission.
The Truck & Trailer Equipment segment provides drawbar couplings under VBG and Ringfeder brands; automatic tire chains under Onspot brand name; sliding roofs for tarpaulin-covered trailers and railway wagons and tipper vehicles under Edscha Trailer Systems and Sesam brands; and vehicle lighting products under the Ledson brand name.
Its Mobile Thermal Solutions segment offers climate control systems for commercial motor vehicles, including heating, ventilation, air conditioning, control systems, and various associated components, for manufacturers of transit, coach, school, and shuttle buses; and off-road vehicles for construction, agriculture, forestry, mining, and materials handling applications, as well as utility vehicles, including delivery vans, refuse collection trucks, ambulances, and fire trucks; and defense vehicles for troop transport.
The Ringfeder Power Transmission segment provides products and systems for mechanical power transmission, and energy and shock absorption for the mines, freight handling, and energy production, industrial rolling mills, drilling equipment, aerospace and defense, infrastructure, medicine, and robotics sectors under the Ringfeder, Henfel, Rathi, Malmedie, and Carlyle Johnson brands.
VBG Group AB (publ) was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Trollhättan, Sweden.
Stock analysis
VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B) currently trades at kr 313.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 346.18, implying the stock looks roughly 9.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 346.18 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 313.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 41.24, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 198.04 (bear) to kr 450.03 (bull), the price of kr 313.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
VBG Group AB (publ) reported revenue of 5.4B SEK in FY2025 versus 3.6B SEK in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was 422M SEK in FY2025, compounding +5.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 7.8B SEK (≈ $789M) Small · P/E ratio 19.1 · P/S ratio 1.41 · EPS (TTM) kr 16.41 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 7.4% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 11%, VBG-B screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 198.04Fair Value kr 346.18Bullkr 450.03
Price kr 313.00 · Upside +10.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 7.35 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.2% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.1% vs 12.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 655 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside+10.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.2% · Above median
Return on assets6.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)7.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)9.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.38× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "VBG Group AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VBG-B
Frequently asked questions
Is VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 346.18 versus a price of kr 313.00, about +11% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VBG-B?
Our model-based fair value for VBG Group AB (publ) is kr 346.18 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 313.00.
What is the quality score of VBG-B?
VBG Group AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 346.18 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 198.04, optimistic scenario kr 450.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the VBG Group AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 346.18, about +11% upside versus a price of kr 313.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 198.04, optimistic scenario kr 450.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B)?
VBG Group AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.5B SEK (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does VBG Group AB (publ) pay a dividend?
VBG Group AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of 2.32% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, VBG Group AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +22.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.4 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VBG-B use?
Our models discount VBG Group AB (publ) at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For VBG Group AB (publ) that is +22.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at VBG Group AB (publ) grew +11.4 % a year. The price currently implies +22.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into VBG Group AB (publ) (+22.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.86 %: that much free cash flow VBG Group AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For VBG Group AB (publ) it is kr 346.18 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of kr 313.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is VBG Group AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, VBG-B trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 313.00, fair value kr 346.18, a gap of about +11% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VBG-B?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 313.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 346.18). For VBG Group AB (publ) the two are kr 33.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is VBG Group AB (publ) worth?
The market values VBG Group AB (publ) at about 7.8B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is kr 313.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 346.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VBG-B?
Our models span a range for VBG Group AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 198.04, base kr 346.18, optimistic kr 450.03 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price kr 313.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VBG-B?
VBG Group AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.1 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 346.18 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 2.0, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 10.8.
What is the PEG ratio of VBG-B?
The PEG ratio of VBG Group AB (publ) is 1.89 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B)?
Balance-sheet figures for VBG Group AB (publ) (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 10.2%, debt of 0.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VBG-B from its 52-week high?
VBG Group AB (publ) trades at kr 313.00, about 23% below its 52-week high of kr 404.43 and 4% above the low of kr 301.00 (as of Oct 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 346.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to VBG Group AB (publ)?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is VBG Group AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price kr 313.00, calculated fair value kr 346.18 (+11%), Quality Score 53/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VBG-B calculated?
We run VBG Group AB (publ) through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 346.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. VBG Group AB (publ) currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B)?
The closing price on Oct 19, 2026 was kr 313.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 346.18, about +11% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with VBG Group AB (publ) right now?
A fairly wide model range (kr 198.04 to kr 450.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B) come from?
Earnings per share at VBG Group AB (publ) grew +16.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.9 %, EBIT margin +2.4 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of VBG Group AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B)?
The market capitalisation of VBG Group AB (publ) is 7.8B SEK (≈ $789M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B)?
The price-to-sales ratio of VBG Group AB (publ) is 1.41 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B)?
Earnings per share at VBG Group AB (publ) are kr 16.41 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B)?
The dividend yield of VBG Group AB (publ) is 2.3% (payout 44.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B)?
The net margin of VBG Group AB (publ) is 7.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B)?
The return on equity (ROE) of VBG Group AB (publ) is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of VBG Group AB (publ) is 10.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B)?
The operating margin of VBG Group AB (publ) is 9.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B)?
Revenue at VBG Group AB (publ) is growing +8.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B)?
Earnings per share at VBG Group AB (publ) are growing −10.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does VBG Group AB (publ) (VBG-B) carry?
The net debt of VBG Group AB (publ) is 830M SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 2, 2026