Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Viva Energy Group Ltd stock A$4.26, price A$2.66, upside +60.0%, quality 34 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 8 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.35 – A$3.44 · fair‑value band A$2.05 – A$6.85 · the A$2.66 price screens below the A$4.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Viva Energy Group Limited operates as an energy company in Australia, Singapore, and Papua New Guinea. The company operates through three segments: Convenience & Mobility, Commercial & Industrial, and Energy & Infrastructure.
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The Convenience & Mobility segment operates as an integrated convenience and fuel network under the Shell, Coles Express, Reddy Express, Liberty, Westside, OTR, S24, and Smokemart and Gift Box (SMGB) brands.
The Commercial & Industrial segment supplies fuel, lubricants, polypropylene, and specialty hydrocarbon products to commercial customers in the aviation, marine, transport, resources, construction, agriculture, and manufacturing industries, as well as wholesalers.
The Energy & Infrastructure owns and operates a refinery in Geelong, Victoria that refines crude oil into petroleum products; and manufacturer of bitumen and aviation gasoline used in piston engine aircraft, aromatic and aliphatic-based solvents, and polypropylene products.
Viva Energy Group Limited was founded in 1901 and is based in Docklands, Australia.
Stock analysis
Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA) currently trades at A$2.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$4.26, implying the stock looks roughly 38% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$4.10 per share, and 4 of the 8 models we run sit above the A$2.66 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$0.6600, and 4 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$2.05 (bear) to A$6.85 (bull), the price of A$2.66 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Viva Energy Group Ltd reported revenue of A$28.5B in FY2025 versus A$15.9B in FY2021, a compound +15.8%/yr. Reported net income was −A$421M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$4.4B (≈ $3.0B) Mid · P/E ratio 20.5 · P/S ratio 0.15 · EPS (TTM) A$0.1300 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 0.8% · Return on equity 12.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at 60%, VEA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$2.05Fair Value A$4.26BullA$6.85
Price A$2.66 · Upside +60.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0111 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFA$2.14A$4.14A$7.2177
Growth DCFA$2.16A$4.10A$7.0276
5Y EBITDA ExitA$1.43A$2.97A$4.7873
All 8 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$2.14A$4.14A$7.2177
5Y Revenue ExitA$1.09A$2.31A$3.8770
5Y EBITDA ExitA$1.43A$2.97A$4.7873
10Y Revenue ExitA$1.39A$2.60A$4.2465
10Y EBITDA ExitA$1.66A$3.05A$4.9466
Earnings-Based
EPVA$0.4000A$0.6600A$0.890072
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$2.16A$4.10A$7.0276
Economic Profit
ROIC CompounderA$0.4000A$0.6600A$0.920070
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.6% (2020) → 1.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.4% a year for the price and −1.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (73 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The business draws potential strength from its convenience supply chain overhaul for tighter product control and steadier downstream results, yet is limited by weak profitability, sustained losses and negative equity returns with debt exceeding equity.
Main risk: Swings in global energy and refining margins threaten to undermine the durability of operational gains in the company's downstream retail and convenience business.
Viva Energy is wrapping up its convenience supply chain overhaul by November, aiming for tighter control over product ranges, private labels and supplier deals. Recent earnings gains came mostly from refining margins, yet this retail upgrade targets steadier performance in the downstream business. Our models see the shares as undervalued, but will the operational lift in convenience prove more durable than swings in energy margins?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 115 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.9% · Above median
Return on assets−3.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)6.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.57× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.06× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Viva Energy Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VEA
Frequently asked questions
Is Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$4.26 versus a price of A$2.66, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VEA?
Our model-based fair value for Viva Energy Group Ltd is A$4.26 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$2.66.
What is the quality score of VEA?
Viva Energy Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$4.26 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$2.05, optimistic scenario A$6.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Viva Energy Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$4.26, about +60% upside versus a price of A$2.66 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$2.05, optimistic scenario A$6.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA)?
Viva Energy Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$30.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Viva Energy Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Viva Energy Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.40% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Viva Energy Group Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.117 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 4, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2019. The payout ratio is 90.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.75 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Viva Energy Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +23.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.2 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VEA use?
Our models discount Viva Energy Group Ltd at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Viva Energy Group Ltd that is +23.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Viva Energy Group Ltd grew +18.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +23.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Viva Energy Group Ltd (+23.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.33 %: that much free cash flow Viva Energy Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Viva Energy Group Ltd it is A$4.26 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of A$2.66. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Viva Energy Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, VEA trades below its calculated fair value: price A$2.66, fair value A$4.26, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VEA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$2.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$4.26). For Viva Energy Group Ltd the two are A$1.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Viva Energy Group Ltd worth?
The market values Viva Energy Group Ltd at about A$4.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is A$2.66; our models calculate a fair value of A$4.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VEA?
Our models span a range for Viva Energy Group Ltd: cautious scenario A$2.05, base A$4.26, optimistic A$6.85 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price A$2.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VEA?
Viva Energy Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.5 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$4.26 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 23.1 (the reported result was a loss). Other multiples: P/B 3.1, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 4.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Viva Energy Group Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 12.9%, debt of 1.57 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VEA from its 52-week high?
Viva Energy Group Ltd trades at A$2.66, about 18% below its 52-week high of A$3.24 and 63% above the low of A$1.63 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$4.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Viva Energy Group Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Viva Energy Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price A$2.66, calculated fair value A$4.26 (+60%), Quality Score 34/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VEA calculated?
We run Viva Energy Group Ltd through 8 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$4.26 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Viva Energy Group Ltd currently trades 38% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$2.66. Our model-based fair value is A$4.26, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Viva Energy Group Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (34/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide (A$2.05 to A$6.85). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Viva Energy Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA)?
The market capitalisation of Viva Energy Group Ltd is A$4.4B (≈ $3.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Viva Energy Group Ltd is 0.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA)?
Earnings per share at Viva Energy Group Ltd are A$0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA)?
The dividend yield of Viva Energy Group Ltd is 4.4% (payout 90.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA)?
The net margin of Viva Energy Group Ltd is 0.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Viva Energy Group Ltd is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Viva Energy Group Ltd is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA)?
The operating margin of Viva Energy Group Ltd is 6.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA)?
Revenue at Viva Energy Group Ltd is growing +10.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA)?
Earnings per share at Viva Energy Group Ltd are growing +306% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Viva Energy Group Ltd (VEA) carry?
The net debt of Viva Energy Group Ltd is A$9.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 61.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026