Viva Energy Group (VEA) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · AU · Market cap A$3.8B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from A$1.36 to A$1.34 (−1.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +19.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 49% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$2.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (A$0.8000 to A$2.32). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.38 – A$3.53 · fair‑value band A$0.8000 – A$2.32 · the A$2.65 price screens above the A$1.34 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Viva Energy Group (VEA) currently trades at A$2.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.34, implying the stock looks roughly 49.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Viva Energy Group generated revenue of A$28.5B at a net margin of -1.5%. Revenue declined 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -25.4%. Net debt stands at A$9.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.8000 (bear case) to A$2.32 (bull case); at A$2.65, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -49%, VEA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$1.39) versus Growth DCF (A$0.3100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Viva Energy Group Limited operates as an energy company in Australia, Singapore, and Papua New Guinea. The company operates through three segments: Convenience & Mobility, Commercial & Industrial, and Energy & Infrastructure.
Full company description
Viva Energy Group Limited operates as an energy company in Australia, Singapore, and Papua New Guinea. The company operates through three segments: Convenience & Mobility, Commercial & Industrial, and Energy & Infrastructure. The Convenience & Mobility segment operates as an integrated convenience and fuel network under the Shell, Coles Express, Reddy Express, Liberty, Westside, OTR, S24, and Smokemart and Gift Box (SMGB) brands. The Commercial & Industrial segment supplies fuel, lubricants, polypropylene, and specialty hydrocarbon products to commercial customers in the aviation, marine, transport, resources, construction, agriculture, and manufacturing industries, as well as wholesalers. The Energy & Infrastructure owns and operates a refinery in Geelong, Victoria that refines crude oil into petroleum products; and manufacturer of bitumen and aviation gasoline used in piston engine aircraft, aromatic and aliphatic-based solvents, and polypropylene products. Viva Energy Group Limited was founded in 1901 and is based in Docklands, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Viva Energy Group reported revenue of A$28.5B in FY2025 versus A$15.9B in FY2021, a compound +15.8%/yr. Reported net income was −A$421M in FY2025.
VEA screens 49% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,293 | ₹835.66 | -35% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $309.65 | $127.32 | -59% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $283.74 | $135.80 | -52% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $196.16 | $101.04 | -48% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.10 | €4.07 | -87% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 81.30 TWD | 16.68 TWD | -79% |
| Indian Oil Corporation IOC | ₹138.96 | ₹417.35 | +200% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $88.59 | $48.90 | -45% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹315.55 | ₹846.81 | +168% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 121,400 KRW | 58,865 KRW | -52% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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