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Viva Energy Group (VEA) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · AU · Market cap A$3.7B

PriceA$2.08
Fair ValueA$1.36
Upside-34.6%
Quality95/100
Evidence: Medium Range A$0.4000 – A$1.95

Analysis

Viva Energy Group (VEA) currently trades at A$2.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.36 — implying the stock looks roughly 34.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 95/100 (high quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

About the company

Viva Energy Group Limited operates as an energy company in Australia, Singapore, and Papua New Guinea. The company operates through three segments: Convenience & Mobility, Commercial & Industrial, and Energy & Infrastructure. The Convenience & Mobility segment operates as an integrated convenience and fuel network under the Shell, Coles Express, Reddy Express, Liberty, Westside, OTR, S24, and Smokemart and Gift Box (SMGB) brands. The Commercial & Industrial segment supplies fuel, lubricants, polypropylene, and specialty hydrocarbon products to commercial customers in the aviation, marine, transport, resources, construction, agriculture, and manufacturing industries, as well as wholesalers. The Energy & Infrastructure owns and operates a refinery in Geelong, Victoria that refines crude oil into petroleum products; and manufacturer of bitumen and aviation gasoline used in piston engine aircraft, aromatic and aliphatic-based solvents, and polypropylene products. Viva Energy Group Limit…

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How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.