Vertex (VERX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Vertex $1.25, price $12.01, upside -89.6%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.59 – $58.95 · fair‑value band $1.09 – $1.56 · the $12.01 price screens above the $1.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Vertex, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides enterprise tax technology solutions for retail trade, wholesale trade, and manufacturing industries in the United States and internationally.
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Vertex, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides enterprise tax technology solutions for retail trade, wholesale trade, and manufacturing industries in the United States and internationally. The company offers transaction determination; compliance and reporting, including workflow management tools; tax data management and document management solutions; analytics and insights; pre-built integration that includes mapping data fields, and business logic and configurations; industry-specific solutions support certain industries for indirect tax needs, such as retail, communications, and leasing; and technology specific solutions, such as chain flow accelerator and SAP-specific tools. It provides implementation services, such as configuration, data migration and implementation, and support and training; E-invoicing, an end-to-end e-invoicing process; and managed services, including indirect tax return preparation, filing and tax payment, and notice management. The company sells its software products through software licenses and software as a service subscription. Vertex, Inc. has a strategic collaboration with xSuite Group GmbH to support SAP customers. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Vertex (VERX) currently trades at $12.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.25, 89.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $7.57 per share, and 0 of the 21 models we run sit above the $12.01 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.6800, and 21 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.09 (bear) to $1.56 (bull), the price of $12.01 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Vertex reported revenue of $748M in FY2025 versus $426M in FY2021, a compound +15.2%/yr. Reported net income was $7.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.9B · P/E ratio 600.5 · P/S ratio 5.79 · EPS (TTM) $0.0200 · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity 1.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.9% · Operating margin 3.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −90%, VERX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.09Fair Value $1.25Bull $1.56
Price $12.01 · Upside -89.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0152 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−33.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−33.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−28% → −1%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.0% a year for the price and +6.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 656 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−89.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Return on assets0.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.30× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)600.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B7.49× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)2.46× · Pricier than median
P/FCF28.0× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)53· sector 43
PAST (return on equity)6· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)35· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 34
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vertex Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VERX
Frequently asked questions
Is Vertex (VERX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.25 versus a price of $12.01, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VERX?
Our model-based fair value for Vertex is $1.25 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.01.
What is the quality score of VERX?
Vertex has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vertex (VERX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.25 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.09, optimistic scenario $1.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vertex stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.25, about −90% upside versus a price of $12.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.09, optimistic scenario $1.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vertex (VERX)?
Vertex reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $787M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vertex (VERX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vertex would have to grow free cash flow by +18.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.8 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VERX use?
Our models discount Vertex at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.82, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vertex that is +18.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vertex (VERX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vertex grew +14.8 % a year. The price currently implies +18.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vertex (VERX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vertex (+18.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vertex (VERX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.58 %: that much free cash flow Vertex produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vertex (VERX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vertex it is $1.25 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $12.01. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vertex stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, VERX trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.01, fair value $1.25, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VERX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.25). For Vertex the two are $10.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vertex worth?
The market values Vertex at about $1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $12.01; our models calculate a fair value of $1.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VERX?
Our models span a range for Vertex: cautious scenario $1.09, base $1.25, optimistic $1.56 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $12.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vertex (VERX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vertex (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 1.5%, debt of 1.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VERX from its 52-week high?
Vertex trades at $12.01, about 54% below its 52-week high of $25.94 and 14% above the low of $10.58 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vertex?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vertex stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $12.01, calculated fair value $1.25 (−90%), Quality Score 49/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VERX calculated?
We run Vertex through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Vertex itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vertex (VERX)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $12.01. Our model-based fair value is $1.25, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vertex right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Vertex
How large is the market capitalisation of Vertex (VERX)?
The market capitalisation of Vertex is $1.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Vertex (VERX)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Vertex is 600.5 (as of Oct 3, 2026 ex one-offs 400.3 (fiscal year 2025)). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Vertex (VERX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vertex is 5.79 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vertex (VERX)?
Earnings per share at Vertex are $0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 600.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Vertex (VERX)?
The net margin of Vertex is 1.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vertex (VERX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vertex is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vertex (VERX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vertex is −0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vertex (VERX)?
The operating margin of Vertex is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vertex (VERX)?
Revenue at Vertex is growing +10.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vertex (VERX)?
Earnings per share at Vertex are growing −44.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vertex (VERX) carry?
The net debt of Vertex is $45.6M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 3, 2026