Vista Group International Ltd (VGL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Vista Group International Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Vista Group International Limited provides software and technology solutions to the film industry sectors in New Zealand and internationally. It operates through the Cinema and Film segments.
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Vista Group International Limited provides software and technology solutions to the film industry sectors in New Zealand and internationally. It operates through the Cinema and Film segments. The Cinema segment offers software products to the cinema industry, such as Vista Cinema, a cinema management software and digital solutions for large cinema circuits; Veezi, a cinema management solution for independent exhibitors; Share Dimension software; movieXchange software; Movio Classic software; and Movio Cinema EQ, a data analytics and campaign management solutions. The Film segment provides software products for film studios and distributors, including Maccs, a software solution that manages the distribution of movies to cinemas; Numero, an aggregated box office reporting platform; Movio Research and Movio Media software; Powster for interactive creative studio and production; and Flicks, a movie, cinema, and streaming website and app. The company also offers software development and licensing; marketing and creative solutions; distributes intellectual property; and advertising sales. Vista Group International Limited was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Auckland, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Vista Group International Ltd (VGL) currently trades at A$2.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.6000, implying the stock looks roughly 259.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$1.07 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$2.16 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$0.0800, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Vista Group International Ltd reported revenue of 164M NZD in FY2025 versus 98.1M NZD in FY2021, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.9M NZD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$520M (≈ $372M) · P/E ratio 215.5 · P/S ratio 2.49 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0100 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 71% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −72%, VGL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (A$0.0200 to A$2.30). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear A$0.6000Fair Value A$0.6000Bull A$0.6000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0070 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−29.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−29.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−29% vs −14%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−20% → 4%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Compare Vista Group International Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 696 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)215.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.42× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)2.17× · Pricier than median
P/FCF13.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA40.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)43· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)7· sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)93· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)2· sector 28
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vista Group International Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VGL
Frequently asked questions
Is Vista Group International Ltd (VGL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.6000 versus a price of A$2.16, about −72% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VGL?
Our model-based fair value for Vista Group International Ltd is A$0.6000 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$2.16.
What is the quality score of VGL?
Vista Group International Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vista Group International Ltd (VGL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.6000 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vista Group International Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.6000, about −72% upside versus a price of A$2.16 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vista Group International Ltd (VGL)?
Vista Group International Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$164M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Vista Group International Ltd pay a dividend?
Vista Group International Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.09% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vista Group International Ltd (VGL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vista Group International Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +9.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.4 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VGL use?
Our models discount Vista Group International Ltd at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.67, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vista Group International Ltd that is +9.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vista Group International Ltd (VGL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vista Group International Ltd grew +13.4 % a year. The price currently implies +9.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vista Group International Ltd (VGL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vista Group International Ltd (+9.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vista Group International Ltd (VGL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.23 %: that much free cash flow Vista Group International Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vista Group International Ltd (VGL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vista Group International Ltd it is A$0.6000 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of A$2.16. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vista Group International Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, VGL trades above its calculated fair value: price A$2.16, fair value A$0.6000, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VGL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$2.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.6000). For Vista Group International Ltd the two are A$1.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vista Group International Ltd worth?
The market values Vista Group International Ltd at about A$520M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is A$2.16; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.6000 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of VGL?
Vista Group International Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 215.5 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.6000 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 40.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vista Group International Ltd (VGL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vista Group International Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 1.8%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VGL from its 52-week high?
Vista Group International Ltd trades at A$2.16, about 37% below its 52-week high of A$3.43 and 71% above the low of A$1.26 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.6000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vista Group International Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vista Group International Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price A$2.16, calculated fair value A$0.6000 (−72%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VGL calculated?
We run Vista Group International Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.6000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Vista Group International Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Vista Group International Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.6000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Vista Group International Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Vista Group International Ltd (VGL)?
The market capitalisation of Vista Group International Ltd is A$520M (≈ $372M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vista Group International Ltd (VGL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vista Group International Ltd is 2.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vista Group International Ltd (VGL)?
Earnings per share at Vista Group International Ltd are A$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 215.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vista Group International Ltd (VGL)?
The dividend yield of Vista Group International Ltd is 0.1% (payout 19.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vista Group International Ltd (VGL)?
The net margin of Vista Group International Ltd is 1.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vista Group International Ltd (VGL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vista Group International Ltd is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vista Group International Ltd (VGL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vista Group International Ltd is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vista Group International Ltd (VGL)?
The operating margin of Vista Group International Ltd is 8.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vista Group International Ltd (VGL)?
Revenue at Vista Group International Ltd is growing +8.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vista Group International Ltd (VGL)?
Earnings per share at Vista Group International Ltd are growing +145% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vista Group International Ltd (VGL) carry?
The net debt of Vista Group International Ltd is A$22.4M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 13, 2026