Vital Farms, Inc (VITL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $476M
Vital Farms, Inc
VITL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 24, 2026, revised from $32.48 to $10.82 (−66.7%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −0.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 12% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($8.10 to $16.70) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $8.10 (bear) to $16.70 (bull), base $10.82. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 49/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.17 – $52.41 · fair‑value band $8.10 – $16.70 · the $12.24 price screens above the $10.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Vital Farms, Inc (VITL) currently trades at $12.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.82, implying the stock looks roughly 11.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Vital Farms, Inc generated revenue of $784M at a net margin of 6.1%. Revenue grew 15.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.4%. Net debt stands at $4.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $8.10 (bear case) to $16.70 (bull case); at $12.24, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 77% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 102% fair-value upside, at -12%, VITL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($63.09) versus Dividend Discount ($0.6400). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 14
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vital Farms, Inc., a food company, packages, markets, and distributes shell eggs, butter, and other products in the United States. The company produces products sourced from animals raised on family farms, including shell eggs, stick butter, hard-boiled eggs, and liquid whole eggs under the Vital Farms brand and other trade names.
Full company description
Vital Farms, Inc., a food company, packages, markets, and distributes shell eggs, butter, and other products in the United States. The company produces products sourced from animals raised on family farms, including shell eggs, stick butter, hard-boiled eggs, and liquid whole eggs under the Vital Farms brand and other trade names. It offers its products through third parties and direct to retailers, and commercial and non-commercial foodservice operators. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vital Farms, Inc reported revenue of $759M in FY2025 versus $261M in FY2021, a compound +30.6%/yr. Reported net income was $66.3M in FY2025, compounding +128.6%/yr from FY2021.
VITL screens 12% overvalued. Compare with Muyuan Foods Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Analysts Estimate Vital Farms (VITL) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for
- Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know
- Vital Farms (VITL) Laps the Stock Market: Here's Why
- Vital Farms to Report Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on August 6, 2026
Peer Group
Farm Products · 291 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muyuan Foods Group 002714 | ¥40.90 | ¥48.19 | +18% |
| Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 | ¥14.51 | ¥12.08 | -17% |
| Mowi ASA MOWI | kr 188.40 | kr 262.59 | +39% |
| PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN | 3,120 IDR | 7,076 IDR | +127% |
| Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF | 22.00 THB | 55.71 THB | +153% |
| PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk TAPG | 1,540 IDR | 3,105 IDR | +102% |
| PT FAP Agri Tbk FAPA | 7,300 IDR | 7,463 IDR | +2% |
| PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk JPFA | 2,070 IDR | 7,231 IDR | +249% |
| Thaifoods Group TFGR | 10.60 THB | 23.53 THB | +122% |
| PT Jhonlin Agro Raya Tbk JARR | 1,845 IDR | 610.80 IDR | -67% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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