Vital Farms Inc (VITL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Vital Farms Inc $10.82, price $10.31, upside +4.9%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.17 – $52.41 · fair‑value band $8.10 – $13.53 · the $10.31 price screens below the $10.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Vital Farms, Inc., a food company, packages, markets, and distributes shell eggs, butter, and other products in the United States. The company produces products sourced from animals raised on family farms, including shell eggs, stick butter, hard-boiled eggs, and liquid whole eggs under the Vital Farms brand and other trade names.
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Vital Farms, Inc., a food company, packages, markets, and distributes shell eggs, butter, and other products in the United States. The company produces products sourced from animals raised on family farms, including shell eggs, stick butter, hard-boiled eggs, and liquid whole eggs under the Vital Farms brand and other trade names. It offers its products through third parties and direct to retailers, and commercial and non-commercial foodservice operators. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Stock analysis
Vital Farms Inc (VITL) currently trades at $10.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.82, implying the stock looks roughly 4.7% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $63.09 per share, and 13 of the 14 models we run sit above the $10.31 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.49, and 1 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $8.10 (bear) to $13.53 (bull), the price of $10.31 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Vital Farms Inc reported revenue of $759M in FY2025 versus $261M in FY2021, a compound +30.6%/yr. Reported net income was $66.3M in FY2025, compounding +128.6%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $474M · P/E ratio 9.9 · P/S ratio 0.87 · EPS (TTM) $1.04 · Net margin 8.7% · Return on equity 15.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.6% · Operating margin −1.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 77% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 5%, VITL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.10Fair Value $10.82Bull $13.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7608 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+76.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+76.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 12%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 298 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside+5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Return on assets9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
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Is Vital Farms Inc (VITL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.82 versus a price of $10.31, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of VITL?
Our model-based fair value for Vital Farms Inc is $10.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.31.
What is the quality score of VITL?
Vital Farms Inc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vital Farms Inc (VITL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.10, optimistic scenario $13.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vital Farms Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.82, about +5% upside versus a price of $10.31 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $8.10, optimistic scenario $13.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vital Farms Inc (VITL)?
Vital Farms Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $784M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Vital Farms Inc (VITL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vital Farms Inc it is $10.82 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $10.31. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vital Farms Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, VITL trades below its calculated fair value: price $10.31, fair value $10.82, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VITL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.82). For Vital Farms Inc the two are $0.5050 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vital Farms Inc worth?
The market values Vital Farms Inc at about $474M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $10.31; our models calculate a fair value of $10.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VITL?
Our models span a range for Vital Farms Inc: cautious scenario $8.10, base $10.82, optimistic $13.53 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $10.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VITL?
Vital Farms Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.82 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 5.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vital Farms Inc (VITL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vital Farms Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 15.4%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VITL from its 52-week high?
Vital Farms Inc trades at $10.31, about 77% below its 52-week high of $44.61 and 25% above the low of $8.28 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vital Farms Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vital Farms Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $10.31, calculated fair value $10.82 (+5%), Quality Score 49/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VITL calculated?
We run Vital Farms Inc through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Vital Farms Inc currently trades 5 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vital Farms Inc (VITL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $10.31. Our model-based fair value is $10.82, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vital Farms Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Vital Farms Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Vital Farms Inc (VITL)?
The market capitalisation of Vital Farms Inc is $474M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vital Farms Inc (VITL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vital Farms Inc is 0.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vital Farms Inc (VITL)?
Earnings per share at Vital Farms Inc are $1.04 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Vital Farms Inc (VITL)?
The net margin of Vital Farms Inc is 8.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vital Farms Inc (VITL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vital Farms Inc is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vital Farms Inc (VITL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vital Farms Inc is 9.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vital Farms Inc (VITL)?
The operating margin of Vital Farms Inc is −1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vital Farms Inc (VITL)?
Revenue at Vital Farms Inc is growing +15.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vital Farms Inc (VITL)?
Earnings per share at Vital Farms Inc are growing +51.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Vital Farms Inc (VITL) generate?
The free cash flow of Vital Farms Inc is −$48.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Vital Farms Inc (VITL) carry?
The net debt of Vital Farms Inc is $4.7M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026