Valmont Industries Inc (VMI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Valmont Industries Inc stock $270, price $398, that is 32.2% below the price, quality 71 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $184.28 – $581.82 · fair‑value band $142.00 – $391.74 · the $398.05 price screens above the $269.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Valmont Industries, Inc. operates as a manufacturer of products and services for infrastructure and agriculture markets in the United States, Australia, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Infrastructure and Agriculture.
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It manufactures and distributes steel, pre-stressed concrete, composite structures for electrical transmission, substation, and distribution applications; and designs, engineers, and manufactures metal, steel, wood, aluminum, and composite poles and structures for lighting and transportation applications.
The company also offers galvanizing and painting, and powder coating services for paint products; towers, small cell structures, camouflage concealment solutions, passive intermodulation mitigation equipment, and components for wireless communication markets; and solar single-axis tracker product, an integrated system of steel structures, electric motors, and electronic controllers, as well as provides coatings services to protect metal products.
In addition, it manufactures center pivot components and linear irrigation equipment for the agricultural markets, such as parts and tubular products for industrial customers; advanced technology solutions for agricultural sector; mechanical irrigation equipment and service parts under the Valley brand name.
Valmont Industries, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.
Stock analysis
Valmont Industries Inc (VMI) currently trades at $398.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $269.86, 32% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $269.86 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $398.05 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $32.64, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $142.00 (bear) to $391.74 (bull), the price of $398.05 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Valmont Industries Inc reported revenue of $4.1B in FY2025 versus $3.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was $350M in FY2025, compounding +15.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $7.9B Mid · P/E ratio 15.6 · P/S ratio 1.87 · EPS (TTM) $25.49 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 11.7% · Return on equity 29.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −32%, VMI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$142.00Fair Value $269.86Bull$391.74
Price $398.05 · Downside -32.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($19.19 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $101,119, on Jul 23, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $396,000.
SaleTheodor Werner FreyeDirector800 shares at $495.00$396,000Jul 27, 2026
BuyJohn L SchwietzExecutive VP and CFO208 shares at $486.15$101,119Jul 23, 2026
SaleRenee L CampbellSVP, Capital Markets & Risk412 shares at $522.45$215,249May 6, 2026
SaleMogens C BayDirector17,500 shares at $492.34$8.6MApr 24, 2026
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.6% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +20.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.2% vs 9.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 51% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.6% a year for the price and +4.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Valmont draws moderate strength from strengthening demand and pricing power in North American utilities that offset softer agricultural markets, yet thin evidence leaves durability of this advantage across the conglomerate unproven.
Main risk: Alternatives such as composite poles from RS Technologies or drip systems from Netafim and Rivulis could reduce demand for Valmont's steel structures and center-pivot irrigation equipment, pressuring prices and margins in utility and agriculture segments.
Bull case: Valmont could integrate more advanced materials or precision-ag services to counter substitutes while leveraging its scale and patents to maintain pricing power in core segments.
Bear case: If substitutes gain share and commodity or tariff pressures persist, Valmont might see sustained margin compression and lost volume in irrigation and utility products, eroding its market position over time.
Valmont sees strengthening demand and better pricing in its North American utility operations. This helps offset softer agricultural markets, though our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the utility momentum prove durable enough to support results through the upcoming quarter, or will any shortfall elsewhere weigh more heavily?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−32.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)29.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)14.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.49× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)15.6× · Pricier than median
P/B4.84× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.87× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)25.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA12.6× · Pricier than median
PEG0.96× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 49
FUTURE (revenue growth)33· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)76· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)15· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Valmont Industries Inc (VMI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $269.86 versus a price of $398.05, about 32% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VMI?
Our model-based fair value for Valmont Industries Inc is $269.86 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $398.05.
What is the quality score of VMI?
Valmont Industries Inc has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Valmont Industries Inc (VMI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $269.86 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $142.00, optimistic scenario $391.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Valmont Industries Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $269.86, about 32% lower versus a price of $398.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $142.00, optimistic scenario $391.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Valmont Industries Inc (VMI)?
Valmont Industries Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Valmont Industries Inc pay a dividend?
Valmont Industries Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.73% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Valmont Industries Inc (VMI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Valmont Industries Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +17.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.2 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VMI use?
Our models discount Valmont Industries Inc at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.35, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Valmont Industries Inc that is +17.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Valmont Industries Inc (VMI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Valmont Industries Inc grew +7.2 % a year. The price currently implies +17.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Valmont Industries Inc (VMI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Valmont Industries Inc (+17.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Valmont Industries Inc (VMI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.01 %: that much free cash flow Valmont Industries Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Valmont Industries Inc (VMI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Valmont Industries Inc it is $269.86 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of $398.05. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Valmont Industries Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, VMI trades above its calculated fair value: price $398.05, fair value $269.86, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VMI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($398.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($269.86). For Valmont Industries Inc the two are $128.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Valmont Industries Inc worth?
The market values Valmont Industries Inc at about $7.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is $398.05; our models calculate a fair value of $269.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VMI?
Our models span a range for Valmont Industries Inc: cautious scenario $142.00, base $269.86, optimistic $391.74 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price $398.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VMI?
Valmont Industries Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.6 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $269.86 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 20.9 (reported for FY2025: 22.4). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 26.5. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 4.8, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 12.6.
What is the PEG ratio of VMI?
The PEG ratio of Valmont Industries Inc is 0.96 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Valmont Industries Inc (VMI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Valmont Industries Inc (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 29.8%, debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VMI from its 52-week high?
Valmont Industries Inc trades at $398.05, about 32% below its 52-week high of $581.82 and 6% above the low of $376.74 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $269.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Valmont Industries Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, Swire Pacific Limited, CITIC Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Valmont Industries Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price $398.05, calculated fair value $269.86 (−32%), Quality Score 71/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VMI calculated?
We run Valmont Industries Inc through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $269.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Valmont Industries Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Valmont Industries Inc (VMI)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $398.05. Our model-based fair value is $269.86, about 32% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Valmont Industries Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($142.00 to $391.74). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (71/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Valmont Industries Inc (VMI) come from?
Earnings per share at Valmont Industries Inc grew +10.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.5 %, EBIT margin +2.2 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Valmont Industries Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Valmont Industries Inc (VMI)?
The market capitalisation of Valmont Industries Inc is $7.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Valmont Industries Inc (VMI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Valmont Industries Inc is 1.87 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Valmont Industries Inc (VMI)?
Earnings per share at Valmont Industries Inc are $25.49 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Valmont Industries Inc (VMI)?
The dividend yield of Valmont Industries Inc is 0.7% (payout 10.6%, on adjusted earnings, reported 11.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Valmont Industries Inc (VMI)?
The net margin of Valmont Industries Inc is 11.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Valmont Industries Inc (VMI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Valmont Industries Inc is 29.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Valmont Industries Inc (VMI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Valmont Industries Inc is 12.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Valmont Industries Inc (VMI)?
The operating margin of Valmont Industries Inc is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Valmont Industries Inc (VMI)?
Revenue at Valmont Industries Inc is growing +6.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Valmont Industries Inc (VMI)?
Earnings per share at Valmont Industries Inc are growing +27.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Valmont Industries Inc (VMI) carry?
The net debt of Valmont Industries Inc is $869M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026