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Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Vince Holding Corp. $2.22, price $11.11, upside -80.0%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Cyclical · US · ISIN US92719W2070

VH Vince Holding Corp. logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Vince Holding Corp.

VNCE · US

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $2.22 · Strongly overvalued (−80%)
!Quality 44/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +6.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.0% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
!Narrow moat 37/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$11.31 $1.08 Fair Value $2.22 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.08 – $11.31 · fair‑value band $1.86 – $2.50 · the $11.11 price screens above the $2.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Vince Holding Corp. operates as a retail company in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Vince Wholesale and Vince Direct-to-Consumer.

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Vince Holding Corp. operates as a retail company in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Vince Wholesale and Vince Direct-to-Consumer. The company offers women's products, including cashmere sweaters and silk blouses, as well as leather and suede jackets, dresses, skirts, pants, t-shirts, footwear, outerwear, and accessories; and men's products, such as cashmere sweaters, woven shirts, core and fashion pants, blazers, outerwear, footwear, and accessories under the Vince brand. It sells its products through its branded specialty retail stores, outlet stores, department stores, and specialty stores, as well as through its vince.com e-commerce platform. The company was formerly known as Apparel Holding Corp. and changed its name to Vince Holding Corp. in November 2013. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in New York, New York. Vince Holding Corp. operates as a subsidiary of P180.

Stock analysis

Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock (VNCE) currently trades at $11.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.22, implying the stock looks roughly 400.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $8.44 per share, and 1 of the 13 models we run sit above the $11.11 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.61, and 12 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $1.86 (bear) to $2.50 (bull), the price of $11.11 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock reported revenue of $300M in FY2026 versus $323M in FY2022, a compound −1.8%/yr. Reported net income was $6.4M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $145M · P/E ratio 15.9 · P/S ratio 0.34 · EPS (TTM) $0.7000 · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 21.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6% · Operating margin −4.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 458% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −80%, VNCE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.86 Fair Value $2.22 Bull $2.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4008 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings $2.94 $4.05 $5.57 77
EPV $2.22 $2.67 $3.03 74
ROIC Compounder $2.22 $2.67 $3.03 72
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $2.94 $4.05 $5.57 77
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $3.38 $6.44 $8.02 66
EPV $2.22 $2.67 $3.03 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $8.19 $10.92 $13.65 63
P/S Multiple $6.33 $8.44 $10.55 58
P/B Multiple $6.33 $8.44 $10.55 55
EV/EBIT $8.23 $11.47 $14.70 66
EV/EBITDA $7.03 $9.87 $12.71 67
EV/Revenue $5.07 $7.87 $10.68 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.95 $2.61 $3.90 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $3.31 $3.70 $5.30 70
ROIC Compounder $2.22 $2.67 $3.03 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $5.85 $8.36 $10.87 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75

Profitability 61
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 67
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 22
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 15
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 37/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.1% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−29.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−29.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−28% vs −21%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−16% → 3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 11.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

VNCE screens 401% overvalued. Compare with Ralph Lauren Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Apparel Manufacturing · 226 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −80% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 11% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.39× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Apparel Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.90× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.48× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 11.9× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)53 · sector 5
PAST (return on equity)85 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)81 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 57

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Apparel Manufacturing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Ralph Lauren Corporation RL $346.06 $225.13 −35%
Moncler S.p.A MONC €43.61 €50.69 +16%
Gildan Activewear Inc GIL $46.19 $50.81 +10%
LPP SA LPP 24,520 PLN 20,032 PLN −18%
Levi Strauss & Co LEVI $20.06 $15.83 −21%
V.F. Corporation VFC $13.55 $13.41 −1%
Bosideng International Holdings 3998 HK$4.02 HK$5.92 +47%
Youngor Fashion Co 600177 ¥8.19 ¥5.59 −32%
Kontoor Brands, Inc KTB $67.82 $85.76 +26%
Page Industries Limited PAGEIND ₹37,340 ₹28,533 −24%

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Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock · Fair Value
$2.22 −401%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VNCE

Frequently asked questions

Is Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.22 versus a price of $11.11, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VNCE?
Our model-based fair value for Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock is $2.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.11.
What is the quality score of VNCE?
Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.86, optimistic scenario $2.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.22, about −80% upside versus a price of $11.11 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.86, optimistic scenario $2.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)?
Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $306M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock it is $2.22 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $11.11. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, VNCE trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.11, fair value $2.22, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VNCE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.22). For Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock the two are $8.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock worth?
The market values Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock at about $145M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $11.11; our models calculate a fair value of $2.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VNCE?
Our models span a range for Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock: cautious scenario $1.86, base $2.22, optimistic $2.50 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $11.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VNCE?
Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.22 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 25.3 (reported 22.4). Other multiples: P/B 2.9, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 11.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 21.3%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VNCE from its 52-week high?
Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock trades at $11.11, at its 52-week high of $11.11 and 458% above the low of $1.99 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Ralph Lauren Corporation, Moncler S.p.A, Gildan Activewear Inc, LPP SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $11.11, calculated fair value $2.22 (−80%), Quality Score 44/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VNCE calculated?
We run Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $11.11. Our model-based fair value is $2.22, about −80% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) come from?
Earnings per share at Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock grew −13.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −11.8 %, EBIT margin −6.7 %, tax rate +5.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock

How large is the market capitalisation of Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)?
The market capitalisation of Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock is $145M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock is 0.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)?
Earnings per share at Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock are $0.7000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)?
The net margin of Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock is 2.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock is 21.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)?
The operating margin of Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock is −4.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)?
Revenue at Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock is growing +10.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)?
Earnings per share at Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock are growing −39.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) generate?
The free cash flow of Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock is −$1.3M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) carry?
The net debt of Vince Holding Corp. Common Stock is $122M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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