Vonovia SE (VONOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Vonovia SE $19.75, price $9.41, upside +109.9%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.73 – $24.80 · fair‑value band $15.61 – $19.75 · the $9.41 price screens below the $19.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Vonovia SE operates as an integrated residential real estate company in Europe. The company operates through Rental, Value-Add, Recurring Sales, and Development segments.
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Vonovia SE operates as an integrated residential real estate company in Europe. The company operates through Rental, Value-Add, Recurring Sales, and Development segments. It offers property management services; property-related services; and value-added services, including maintenance and modernization of properties, craftsmen and residential environment organization, multimedia, energy supply, metering, condominium administration, and insurance services. The company is also involved in the sale of individual condominiums and single-family houses; and project development activities to build new homes. In addition, it engages in construction of owner-occupied and rented apartments; sale of projects to investors; and construction of new properties on existing land held in the portfolio. The company was formerly known as Deutsche Annington Immobilien SE and changed its name to Vonovia SE in August 2015. Vonovia SE was founded in 1998 and incorporated in October 10th, 2017 is headquartered in Bochum, Germany.
Stock analysis
Vonovia SE ADR (VONOY) currently trades at $9.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.75, implying the stock looks roughly 52.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $21.31 per share, and 4 of the 7 models we run sit above the $9.41 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $2.94, and 3 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $15.61 (bear) to $19.75 (bull), the price of $9.41 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Vonovia SE ADR reported revenue of €4.8B in FY2025 versus €3.6B in FY2021, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was €3.6B in FY2025, compounding +7.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $20.0B · P/E ratio 4.1 · P/S ratio 3.10 · EPS (TTM) $2.27 · Dividend yield 13.3% · Net margin 74.8% · Return on equity 12.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 110%, VONOY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $15.61Fair Value $19.75Bull $19.75
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7713 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.3%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)13.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.4% vs 8.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.174% → 36%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.8% a year for the price and −5.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 530 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+117.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)57.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)43.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−33.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)13.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.40× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vonovia SE ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VONOY
Frequently asked questions
Is Vonovia SE (VONOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.75 versus a price of $9.41, about +110% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VONOY?
Our model-based fair value for Vonovia SE ADR is $19.75 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.41.
What is the quality score of VONOY?
Vonovia SE ADR has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vonovia SE (VONOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.75 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.61, optimistic scenario $19.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vonovia SE ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.75, about +110% upside versus a price of $9.41 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $15.61, optimistic scenario $19.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vonovia SE (VONOY)?
Vonovia SE ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €5.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Vonovia SE ADR pay a dividend?
Vonovia SE ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 13.28% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vonovia SE (VONOY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vonovia SE ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +25.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VONOY use?
Our models discount Vonovia SE ADR at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.47, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vonovia SE ADR that is +25.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vonovia SE (VONOY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vonovia SE ADR grew +8.7 % a year. The price currently implies +25.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vonovia SE (VONOY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vonovia SE ADR (+25.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vonovia SE (VONOY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.80 %: that much free cash flow Vonovia SE ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vonovia SE (VONOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vonovia SE ADR it is $19.75 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $9.41. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vonovia SE ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, VONOY trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.41, fair value $19.75, a gap of about +110% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VONOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.75). For Vonovia SE ADR the two are $10.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vonovia SE ADR worth?
The market values Vonovia SE ADR at about $20.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $9.41; our models calculate a fair value of $19.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VONOY?
Our models span a range for Vonovia SE ADR: cautious scenario $15.61, base $19.75, optimistic $19.75 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $9.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VONOY?
Vonovia SE ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.1 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.75 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 14.6, P/B 0.7, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 22.8.
What is the PEG ratio of VONOY?
The PEG ratio of Vonovia SE ADR is 14.59 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vonovia SE (VONOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vonovia SE ADR (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 12.6%, debt of 1.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VONOY from its 52-week high?
Vonovia SE ADR trades at $9.41, about 41% below its 52-week high of $15.99 and at the low of $9.37 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vonovia SE ADR?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vonovia SE ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $9.41, calculated fair value $19.75 (+110%), Quality Score 56/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VONOY calculated?
We run Vonovia SE ADR through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Vonovia SE ADR currently trades 52 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vonovia SE (VONOY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $9.41. Our model-based fair value is $19.75, about +110% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vonovia SE ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($15.61). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Vonovia SE ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Vonovia SE (VONOY)?
The market capitalisation of Vonovia SE ADR is $20.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vonovia SE (VONOY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vonovia SE ADR is 3.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vonovia SE (VONOY)?
Earnings per share at Vonovia SE ADR are $2.27 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vonovia SE (VONOY)?
The dividend yield of Vonovia SE ADR is 13.3% (payout 55.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vonovia SE (VONOY)?
The net margin of Vonovia SE ADR is 74.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vonovia SE (VONOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vonovia SE ADR is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vonovia SE (VONOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vonovia SE ADR is −1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vonovia SE (VONOY)?
The operating margin of Vonovia SE ADR is 43.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vonovia SE (VONOY)?
Revenue at Vonovia SE ADR is growing −33.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vonovia SE (VONOY)?
Earnings per share at Vonovia SE ADR are growing −58.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vonovia SE (VONOY) carry?
The net debt of Vonovia SE ADR is €40.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 31.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026