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Weichai Power Co (WEICF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Weichai Power Co $8.42, price $3.75, upside +124.5%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Weichai Power Co
WEICF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $8.42 · Strongly undervalued (+124.5%)
!Quality 53/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +2.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓19.5% dividend yield · Well covered
!Narrow moat 42/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1787 – $5.91 · fair‑value band $5.53 – $10.95 · the $3.75 price screens below the $8.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Weichai Power Co., Ltd. engages in the automobile and equipment manufacturing industry in China and internationally. The company operates through the Engines, Automobiles and Auto Parts, Agricultural Equipment, and Intelligent Logistics segments.
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Weichai Power Co., Ltd. engages in the automobile and equipment manufacturing industry in China and internationally. The company operates through the Engines, Automobiles and Auto Parts, Agricultural Equipment, and Intelligent Logistics segments. It offers engines for trucks, buses, construction machinery, and agricultural tractors and harvesters; energy and power solutions, including generator sets and industrial power products; transmission, PTO, and auto transmission products; axles for trucks, buses, and construction machineries; and hydraulics comprising variable displacement pumps, VT modular valves, electronic units, and excavator and agriculture machine powertrain systems. The company also provides new energy products, such as pure electric drive, pure electric gearbox power, electric drive axle power, hybrid power, power battery, and range-extender systems; commercial vehicles and auto parts; and after-market products, which include parts, oil, and remanufacture. In addition, it engages in forklift production, warehouse technology, and supply chain solution services, as well as industrial truck and services materials handling. The company offers its products under the Weichai Power Engine, Fast Gear Transmission, Hande Axle, Shaanxi Automobile Heavy Truck, and Weichai Lovol Smart Agriculture brands. Weichai Power Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2002 and is based in Weifang, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Weichai Power Co (WEICF) currently trades at $3.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.42, implying the stock looks roughly 55.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $10.19 per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the $3.75 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.08, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.53 (bear) to $10.95 (bull), the price of $3.75 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Weichai Power Co reported revenue of 226B CNY in FY2025 versus 204B CNY in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was 10.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding +2.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $42.6B · P/E ratio 25.9 · P/S ratio 1.22 · EPS (TTM) $0.1900 · Net margin 4.7% · Return on equity 11.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9% · Operating margin 8.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 103% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 125%, WEICF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.53
Fair Value $8.42
Bull $10.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV
$2.75
$3.06
$3.33
74
Residual Income
$1.47
$1.70
$2.26
74
FCF DCF
$8.13
$12.29
$25.54
73
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$8.13
$12.29
$25.54
73
Owner Earnings
$6.35
$13.33
$27.99
69
5Y Revenue Exit
$4.62
$6.78
$11.24
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$6.31
$10.19
$17.78
70
5Y P/E Exit
$5.05
$9.21
$14.71
67
10Y Revenue Exit
$5.61
$9.91
$12.22
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$6.93
$13.54
$24.79
63
10Y P/E Exit
$6.01
$10.82
$18.34
60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.25
$8.72
$12.24
61
Lynch FV
$4.51
$6.44
$8.37
59
PEG = 1.0
$4.51
$6.44
$8.37
55
EPV
$2.75
$3.06
$3.33
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.9400
$1.96
$3.10
64
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.9400
$1.65
$2.05
64
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$2.90
$3.86
$4.83
63
P/S Multiple
$2.34
$3.13
$3.91
58
P/B Multiple
$2.34
$3.13
$3.91
55
EV/EBIT
$3.93
$4.94
$5.96
66
EV/EBITDA
$5.44
$6.96
$8.48
67
EV/Revenue
$3.05
$3.99
$4.92
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.8100
$1.08
$1.61
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$7.70
$14.41
$25.43
73
Rev-Margin DCF
$4.98
$7.64
$13.25
68
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$1.47
$1.70
$2.26
74
ROIC Compounder
$3.44
$5.02
$6.44
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$5.89
$8.42
$10.95
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
53/100
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Profitability
34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
69
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
7
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
76
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
85
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
63/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.8% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.4% vs 14.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.0% a year for the price and +6.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+13.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+8.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+7.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+6.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.8%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| BYD Company 002594 | ¥83.31 | ¥61.43 | −26% |
| General Motors Company GM | $77.00 | $60.53 | −21% |
| Ferrari N.V RACE | $392.85 | $432.14 | +10% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 353,500 KRW | 362,081 KRW | +2% |
| Ford Motor Company F | $12.27 | $12.59 | +3% |
| Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 | €43.00 | €22.09 | −49% |
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| Honda Motor Co HMC | $31.62 | $20.31 | −36% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Weichai Power Co (WEICF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.42 versus a price of $3.75, about +125% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of WEICF?
Our model-based fair value for Weichai Power Co is $8.42 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.75.
What is the quality score of WEICF?
Weichai Power Co has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Weichai Power Co (WEICF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.42 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.53, optimistic scenario $10.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Weichai Power Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.42, about +125% upside versus a price of $3.75 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.53, optimistic scenario $10.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Weichai Power Co (WEICF)?
Weichai Power Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 237B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Weichai Power Co (WEICF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Weichai Power Co would have to grow free cash flow by -7.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.7 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WEICF use?
Our models discount Weichai Power Co at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.63, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Weichai Power Co that is -7.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Weichai Power Co (WEICF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Weichai Power Co grew +2.7 % a year. The price currently implies -7.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Weichai Power Co (WEICF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Weichai Power Co (-7.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Weichai Power Co (WEICF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.14 %: that much free cash flow Weichai Power Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Weichai Power Co (WEICF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Weichai Power Co it is $8.42 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $3.75. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Weichai Power Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, WEICF trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.75, fair value $8.42, a gap of about +125% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WEICF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.42). For Weichai Power Co the two are $4.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Weichai Power Co worth?
The market values Weichai Power Co at about $42.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $3.75; our models calculate a fair value of $8.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WEICF?
Our models span a range for Weichai Power Co: cautious scenario $5.53, base $8.42, optimistic $10.95 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $3.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is WEICF from its 52-week high?
Weichai Power Co trades at $3.75, about 37% below its 52-week high of $5.91 and 103% above the low of $1.85 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Weichai Power Co?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Weichai Power Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $3.75, calculated fair value $8.42 (+125%), Quality Score 53/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WEICF calculated?
We run Weichai Power Co through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Weichai Power Co currently trades 55 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Weichai Power Co (WEICF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $3.75. Our model-based fair value is $8.42, about +125% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Weichai Power Co right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($5.53). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($5.53 to $10.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Weichai Power Co (WEICF) come from?
Earnings per share at Weichai Power Co grew +13.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.5 %, EBIT margin +2.5 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Weichai Power Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Weichai Power Co (WEICF)?
The market capitalisation of Weichai Power Co is $42.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Weichai Power Co (WEICF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Weichai Power Co is 25.9 (as of Jun 25, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Weichai Power Co (WEICF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Weichai Power Co is 1.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Weichai Power Co (WEICF)?
Earnings per share at Weichai Power Co are $0.1900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Weichai Power Co (WEICF)?
The net margin of Weichai Power Co is 4.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Weichai Power Co (WEICF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Weichai Power Co is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Weichai Power Co (WEICF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Weichai Power Co is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Weichai Power Co (WEICF)?
The operating margin of Weichai Power Co is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Weichai Power Co (WEICF)?
Revenue at Weichai Power Co is growing +8.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Weichai Power Co (WEICF)?
Earnings per share at Weichai Power Co are growing +16.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Weichai Power Co (WEICF) carry?
The net debt of Weichai Power Co is 28.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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