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Wesfarmers Ltd (WES) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$105B (≈ $75.9B) · ISIN AU000000WES1

What is Wesfarmers Ltd really worth?

WL Wesfarmers Ltd WES · AU
PriceA$77.73
Fair ValueA$50.50
Upside−35.0%
Quality71/100

A solid business, but trading 54% above our fair value of A$50.50.

As of Sep 5, 2026, the fair value of Wesfarmers Ltd is A$50.50 per share against a price of A$77.73, so the fair value sits 35% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.6% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Moderate moat 62/100
!Weak on future: 16 out of 100

For context

·4.67% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range A$34.21 – A$65.44

Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price −14.3% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$65.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • A fairly wide model range (A$34.21 to A$65.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

A$92.96 A$35.69 Fair Value A$50.50 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$35.69 – A$92.96 · fair‑value band A$34.21 – A$65.44 · the A$77.73 price screens above the A$50.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Wesfarmers Ltd (WES) currently trades at A$77.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$50.50, implying the stock looks roughly 53.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$56.58 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$77.73 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$5.42, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Wesfarmers Ltd generated revenue of A$46.4B at a net margin of 6.6%. Revenue grew 3.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 36.4%. Net debt stands at A$10.5B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from A$34.21 (bear case) to A$65.44 (bull case); at A$77.73, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −35%, WES screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence A$32.58 A$56.58 A$95.40 78
Growth DCF A$32.81 A$56.07 A$93.42 76
Owner Earnings A$34.60 A$59.94 A$100.93 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence A$32.58 A$56.58 A$95.40 78
Owner Earnings A$34.60 A$59.94 A$100.93 74
5Y Revenue Exit A$28.26 A$48.84 A$75.72 71
5Y EBITDA Exit A$35.46 A$62.92 A$95.97 74
5Y P/E Exit A$34.08 A$60.22 A$88.69 70
10Y Revenue Exit A$28.46 A$48.03 A$75.73 65
10Y EBITDA Exit A$34.11 A$58.04 A$91.82 67
10Y P/E Exit A$33.22 A$56.11 A$86.04 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd A$17.53 A$66.28 A$89.70 64
Lynch FV A$16.06 A$22.94 A$29.82 61
PEG = 1.0 A$16.06 A$22.94 A$29.82 57
EPV A$19.01 A$22.78 A$26.08 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$42.53 A$56.70 A$70.88 63
P/S Multiple A$32.86 A$43.81 A$54.77 58
P/B Multiple A$24.28 A$32.38 A$40.47 55
EV/EBIT A$41.85 A$57.00 A$72.15 66
EV/EBITDA A$41.24 A$56.18 A$71.12 67
EV/Revenue A$27.04 A$40.17 A$53.30 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$4.05 A$5.42 A$8.09 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF A$32.81 A$56.07 A$93.42 76
Rev-Margin DCF A$28.26 A$48.68 A$73.49 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$18.20 A$25.54 A$207.16 64
ROIC Compounder A$21.36 A$29.06 A$38.69 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E A$30.26 A$43.23 A$56.20 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$56.58) versus Asset-Based (A$5.42). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 28.8
P/S ratio 1.85 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) A$2.70 price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.8
Dividend yield 4.7% payout 134%
Net margin 6.4% FY2025
Return on equity 36.4% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 13.4% avg 5y
Operating margin 9.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) A$46.4B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.1% 3y avg +7.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +9.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow A$3.4B FY2025
Net debt A$10.5B FY2025 · ≈ 3.1 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 71/100

Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 80
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 27
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Wesfarmers Limited engages in the retail business in Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. The company sells outdoor living and building materials, as well as home, garden, and lifestyle improvement products; apparel and general merchandise, including toys and consumables, as well as leisure, entertainment, and soft home products; and office products …

Full company description

Wesfarmers Limited engages in the retail business in Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. The company sells outdoor living and building materials, as well as home, garden, and lifestyle improvement products; apparel and general merchandise, including toys and consumables, as well as leisure, entertainment, and soft home products; and office products and solutions, such as stationery, technology, furniture, art supplies, and learning and development resources, as well as print and create, and technical support services through its Officeworks stores. It also provides hardware and software repairs, system security solutions, wireless and wired networking services, virus and spyware prevention and removal, and data backup and recovery solutions. In addition, the company manufactures and supplies ammonia, ammonium nitrate, and industrial chemicals; manufactures, imports, and distributes phosphate, nitrogen, and potassium-based fertilizers, as well as soil and plant analysis service supported; supplies polyvinyl chloride resins; produces wood-plastic composite products; and manufactures and distributes sodium cyanide and lithium hydroxide. Further, it supplies and distributes maintenance, repair, operating, and industrial safety products and services; supplies tools, safety gear, personal protective equipment, electricals, work wear, and other industrial supplies; provides risk and compliance management services, as well as footwear; and offers safety products, uniforms, engineering supplies, and packaging services. Additionally, the company provides health, beauty, and wellbeing products and services; clinical cosmetic and skin care treatments; digital health services; and retail support services, as well as distributes pharmaceutical goods; operates an online marketplace; and manages retail subscription program and retail media network. Wesfarmers Limited was founded in 1914 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Wesfarmers Ltd reported revenue of A$45.6B in FY2025 versus A$33.8B in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$2.9B in FY2025, compounding +5.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
A$45.6B
Latest YoY
+3.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (36Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+13.2% · in AUD
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+8.5%
Dividend yield4.7%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 8.5% vs 10Y 6.8%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8.8% (2020) → 8.4% (2025) · steady
Worst earnings drop83% (2016) · in AUD
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Revenue +7.8%/yr
FY21 A$33.8B
FY22 A$36.7B
FY23 A$43.4B
FY24 A$44.0B
FY25 A$45.6B
Net income +5.3%/yr
FY21 A$2.4B
FY22 A$2.4B
FY23 A$2.5B
FY24 A$2.6B
FY25 A$2.9B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +6.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share −3.9 %

of which total revenue −3.8 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %

EBIT margin +5.7 %
Tax rate +1.4 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +3.7 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

WES screens 54% overvalued. Compare with The Home Depot, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Wesfarmers Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WES.AU

Peer Group

Home Improvement Retail · 34 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −35% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 36% · Top 25%
Return on assets 9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Revenue growth 3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.7% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.51× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Home Improvement Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 28.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 8.26× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.64× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 22.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 17.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 1.51× · Pricier than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Wesfarmers Ltd deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+9.5 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+8.2 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.6 %
FCF yield on price3.88 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.6 %

The price demands roughly the growth the company recently delivered. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 29
FUTURE16 · sector 11
PAST100 · sector 32
HEALTH74 · sector 95
DIVIDEND93 · sector 61

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Home Improvement Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
The Home Depot, Inc HD $321.05 $236.85 −26%
Lowe's Companies, Inc LOW $208.05 $186.32 −10%
Floor & Decor Holdings FND $59.33 $27.30 −54%
Mr D.I.Y. Group 5296 1.51 MYR 1.47 MYR −3%
Home Product Center Public Company HMPROR 6.70 THB 6.31 THB −6%
Siam Global House Public Company GLOBAL 6.65 THB 5.96 THB −10%
Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc HVT $27.26 $20.42 −25%
Dohome Public Company DOHOME 3.78 THB 2.75 THB −27%
Test-Rite International Co 2908 21.80 TWD 4.97 TWD −77%
Bourrelier Group ALBOU €69.40 €36.15 −48%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Wesfarmers Ltd (WES) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$50.50 versus a price of A$77.73, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WES?
Our model-based fair value for Wesfarmers Ltd is A$50.50 (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$77.73.
What is the quality score of WES?
Wesfarmers Ltd has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Wesfarmers Ltd (WES)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$50.50 (as of Sep 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$34.21, optimistic scenario A$65.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Wesfarmers Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$50.50, about −35% upside versus a price of A$77.73 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$34.21, optimistic scenario A$65.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Wesfarmers Ltd (WES)?
Wesfarmers Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$46.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of WES?
The net profit margin of Wesfarmers Ltd is about 6.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Wesfarmers Ltd pay a dividend?
Wesfarmers Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.67% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Wesfarmers Ltd (WES)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Wesfarmers Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +9.5 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.6 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.2 % per year. As of Sep 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WES use?
Our models discount Wesfarmers Ltd at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.81, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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