Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Warehouse Group Ltd $1.58, price $0.54, upside +195.3%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Warehouse Group Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.5350 – $2.53 · fair‑value band $1.19 – $2.08 · the $0.5350 price screens below the $1.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Warehouse Group in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Warehouse Group is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
The Warehouse Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of retail stores in New Zealand. The company sells general merchandise, apparels, technology, appliance, and stationery products.
Show more
The Warehouse Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of retail stores in New Zealand. The company sells general merchandise, apparels, technology, appliance, and stationery products. The Warehouse Group Limited operates its physical retails stores under The Warehouse Stores, Warehouse Stationery Stores, and Noel Leeming Stores; and online stores under The Warehouse Stores, Warehouse Stationery Stores, and Noel Leeming Stores; Torpedo7, and TheMarket.com brand names. The company is involved in the provision of property and investment services. The Warehouse Group Limited was founded in 1982 and is based in Auckland, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF) currently trades at $0.5350, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.58, implying the stock looks roughly 66.1% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $2.42 per share, and 16 of the 16 models we run sit above the $0.5350 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.5400, and 0 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.19 (bear) to $2.08 (bull), the price of $0.5350 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Warehouse Group Ltd reported revenue of 3.1B NZD in FY2025 versus 3.4B NZD in FY2021, a compound −2.5%/yr. Reported net income was −2.8M NZD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $185M · P/S ratio 0.06 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0200 · Net margin −0.1% · Return on equity 0.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3% · Operating margin 2.9% · Revenue (TTM) 3.1B NZD.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at 195%, WHGPF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.19Fair Value $1.58Bull $2.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.1% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.2% (2020) → 1.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in NZD, New Zealand: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.9% a year for the price and −1.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Department Stores · 117 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+195.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.5% · Below median
Return on assets1.9% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)24.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.48× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Warehouse Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WHGPF
Frequently asked questions
Is Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.58 versus a price of $0.5350, about +195% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of WHGPF?
Our model-based fair value for Warehouse Group Ltd is $1.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.5350.
What is the quality score of WHGPF?
Warehouse Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.19, optimistic scenario $2.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Warehouse Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.58, about +195% upside versus a price of $0.5350 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.19, optimistic scenario $2.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF)?
Warehouse Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.1B NZD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Warehouse Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -2.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WHGPF use?
Our models discount Warehouse Group Ltd at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.18, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Warehouse Group Ltd that is -2.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Warehouse Group Ltd grew -0.6 % a year. The price currently implies -2.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Warehouse Group Ltd (-2.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.33 %: that much free cash flow Warehouse Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Warehouse Group Ltd it is $1.58 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.5350. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Warehouse Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, WHGPF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.5350, fair value $1.58, a gap of about +195% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WHGPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.5350); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.58). For Warehouse Group Ltd the two are $1.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Warehouse Group Ltd worth?
The market values Warehouse Group Ltd at about $185M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.5350; our models calculate a fair value of $1.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WHGPF?
Our models span a range for Warehouse Group Ltd: cautious scenario $1.19, base $1.58, optimistic $2.08 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.5350). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of WHGPF?
The PEG ratio of Warehouse Group Ltd is 1.96 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Warehouse Group Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.5%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WHGPF from its 52-week high?
Warehouse Group Ltd trades at $0.5350, at its 52-week high of $0.5350 and at the low of $0.5350 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Warehouse Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Falabella S.A, Dillard's, Inc, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings, Macy's, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Warehouse Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.5350, calculated fair value $1.58 (+195%), Quality Score 57/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WHGPF calculated?
We run Warehouse Group Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Warehouse Group Ltd currently trades 195 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $0.5350. Our model-based fair value is $1.58, about +195% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Warehouse Group Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.19). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Warehouse Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF)?
The market capitalisation of Warehouse Group Ltd is $185M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Warehouse Group Ltd is 0.06 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF)?
Earnings per share at Warehouse Group Ltd are $−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF)?
The net margin of Warehouse Group Ltd is −0.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Warehouse Group Ltd is 0.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Warehouse Group Ltd is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF)?
The operating margin of Warehouse Group Ltd is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF)?
Revenue at Warehouse Group Ltd is growing +0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF)?
Earnings per share at Warehouse Group Ltd are growing +35.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Warehouse Group Ltd (WHGPF) carry?
The net debt of Warehouse Group Ltd is 810M NZD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Warehouse Group Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Warehouse Group Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026