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The Warehouse Group (WHGPF) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $186M

TW The Warehouse Group logo The Warehouse Group WHGPF · US
Price$0.5350
Fair Value$0.9400
Upside+75.7%
Quality57/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 0.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Narrow moat 23/100
Evidence: High Range $0.6500 – $1.30 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 19 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from $0.9100 to $0.9400 (+3.3%) since Jun 25, 2026.

A solid business, screening 76% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.6500). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range ($0.6500 to $1.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$2.53 $0.5350 Fair Value $0.9400 Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.5350 – $2.53 · fair‑value band $0.6500 – $1.30 · the $0.5350 price screens below the $0.9400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

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Analysis

The Warehouse Group (WHGPF) currently trades at $0.5350, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.9400, implying the stock looks roughly 75.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $3.1B. Revenue grew 0.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.5%. Net debt stands at $810M. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.6500 (bear case) to $1.30 (bull case); at $0.5350, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 50% fair-value upside, at 76%, WHGPF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $1.03 $1.33 $1.73 80
Rev-Margin DCF $0.8300 $1.28 $1.80 74
ROIC Compounder $0.4500 $0.5400 $0.6100 72
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $1.00 $1.34 $1.78 38
Owner Earnings $2.79 $3.58 $4.63 31
5Y Revenue Exit $0.8300 $1.26 $1.81 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $2.69 $4.46 $6.57 41
10Y Revenue Exit $0.8800 $1.23 $1.63 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $1.88 $3.05 $4.43 37
Earnings-Based
EPV $0.4500 $0.5400 $0.6100 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.9100 $1.15 $1.37 70
DDM Multi-Stage $0.9100 $1.16 $1.40 61
Multiples
EV/EBIT $1.27 $1.80 $2.32 53
EV/EBITDA $4.81 $6.51 $8.22 54
EV/Revenue $0.7600 $1.21 $1.67 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.4300 $0.5800 $0.8600 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $1.03 $1.33 $1.73 80
Rev-Margin DCF $0.8300 $1.28 $1.80 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $0.4500 $0.5400 $0.6100 72

Widest divergence: Multiples ($1.80) versus Earnings-Based ($0.5400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $3.1B
Revenue growth (YoY) +0.3%
Net margin 0.0%
Return on equity 0.5%
Free cash flow $59.7M FY2025
Operating margin 2.9%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) $-0.0200
EPS growth (YoY) +35.3%
Net debt $810M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 33
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

The Warehouse Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of retail stores in New Zealand. The company sells general merchandise, apparels, technology, appliance, and stationery products.

Full company description

The Warehouse Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of retail stores in New Zealand. The company sells general merchandise, apparels, technology, appliance, and stationery products. The Warehouse Group Limited operates its physical retails stores under The Warehouse Stores, Warehouse Stationery Stores, and Noel Leeming Stores; and online stores under The Warehouse Stores, Warehouse Stationery Stores, and Noel Leeming Stores; Torpedo7, and TheMarket.com brand names. The company is involved in the provision of property and investment services. The Warehouse Group Limited was founded in 1982 and is based in Auckland, New Zealand.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

The Warehouse Group reported revenue of $3.1B in FY2025 versus $3.4B in FY2021, a compound −2.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.8M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 34/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$3.1B
Latest YoY
+1.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.5%
Avg. growth/yr (28Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.7%
Revenue −2.5%/yr
FY21 $3.4B
FY22 $3.3B
FY23 $3.2B
FY24 $3.0B
FY25 $3.1B
Net income
FY21 $118M
FY22 $89.3M
FY23 $29.8M
FY24 −$54.2M
FY25 −$2.8M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Warehouse Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WHGPF

Peer Group

Department Stores · 127 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside +76% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Revenue growth 0% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.48× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.62× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.06× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 3.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 3.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 1.96× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 26
FUTURE 2 · sector 2
PAST 2 · sector 16
HEALTH 76 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 37

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Department Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Falabella S.A FALABELLA 5,875 CLP 8,880 CLP +51%
El Puerto de Liverpool, S.A. LIVEPOLC1 99.62 MXN 263.70 MXN +165%
99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings 5326 3.70 MYR 1.45 MYR -61%
Cencosud S.A CENCOSUD 2,040 CLP 2,516 CLP +23%
Vishal Mega Mart Limited VMM ₹113.94 ₹37.39 -67%
SHINSEGAE Inc 004170 610,000 KRW 200,259 KRW -67%
Organización Soriana, S. A. B. de C. V., SORIANAB 30.04 MXN 59.59 MXN +98%
Lotte Shopping Co 023530 155,300 KRW 81,725 KRW -47%
Lojas Renner S.A LREN3 R$14.10 R$33.36 +137%
La Comer, S.A. LACOMERUBC 34.37 MXN 51.49 MXN +50%

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Frequently asked questions

Is The Warehouse Group (WHGPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.9400 versus a price of $0.5350, about +76% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of WHGPF?
Our model-based fair value for The Warehouse Group is $0.9400 (as of Jul 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $0.5350.
What is the quality score of WHGPF?
The Warehouse Group has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of The Warehouse Group (WHGPF)?
The Warehouse Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.1B (latest available figure, as of Jul 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of WHGPF?
The net profit margin of The Warehouse Group is about 0.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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