West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of West Japan Railway Co stock $17.15, price $19.72, upside -13.0%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.30 – $23.30 · fair‑value band $6.08 – $31.17 · the $19.72 price screens above the $17.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
Follow West Japan Railway Co ADR in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether West Japan Railway Co ADR is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
West Japan Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the railway operation business in Japan. It operates through five segments: Mobility, Distribution, Real Estate, Travel and Regional Solutions, and Others.
Show moreShow less
The company offers rail passenger transportation services; sells various goods through stores inside the train stations, including convenience stores, restaurants, and souvenir shops; and develops and operates shopping centers and hotels, as well as leases and sells condominiums and other properties.
It is also involved in travel arrangement services, such as train reservations, issuance of hotel vouchers, and sale of package tours, as well as tourism promotion; credit cards and electronic money; construction and electrical construction; advertising; department store business; and spatial information consulting.
The company was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Kita, Japan.
Stock analysis
West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY) currently trades at $19.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.15, 13.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $32.19 per share, and 9 of the 24 models we run sit above the $19.72 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $5.68, and 15 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $6.08 (bear) to $31.17 (bull), the price of $19.72 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
West Japan Railway Co ADR reported revenue of ¥2.0T in FY2026 versus ¥1.0T in FY2022, a compound +17.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥135B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $9.0B Mid · P/E ratio 12.0 · P/S ratio 0.83 · EPS (TTM) $1.65 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 6.9% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −13%, WJRYY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$6.08Fair Value $17.15Bull$31.17
Price $19.72 · Upside -13.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5805 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−8.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8.7% vs −3.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−27% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.8% a year for the price and −1.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (25 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: The business draws a moderate moat from its regulated rail network and operational scale, yet remains constrained by limited innovation and typical Japanese governance structures.
Main risk: Regulatory oversight of fares could constrain revenue growth and limit the ability to cover rising costs in the core rail operations.
JR West operates a dense rail network across western Japan alongside retail and real estate assets that capture value from station traffic. The recent alliance that gives it a 20 percent stake in Kansai Mirai Bank adds a financial-services layer to its regional ecosystem. Will the move deepen customer ties and recurring revenue more than it stretches management focus away from running trains on time?
Compare West Japan Railway Co ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 105 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−13.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.3% · Above median
Return on assets3.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)6.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)13.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−0.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.16× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "West Japan Railway Co ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WJRYY
Frequently asked questions
Is West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.15 versus a price of $19.72, about −13% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WJRYY?
Our model-based fair value for West Japan Railway Co ADR is $17.15 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $19.72.
What is the quality score of WJRYY?
West Japan Railway Co ADR has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.15 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.08, optimistic scenario $31.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the West Japan Railway Co ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.15, about −13% upside versus a price of $19.72 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.08, optimistic scenario $31.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY)?
West Japan Railway Co ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.8T (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does West Japan Railway Co ADR pay a dividend?
West Japan Railway Co ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 3.15% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, West Japan Railway Co ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +15.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.9 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WJRYY use?
Our models discount West Japan Railway Co ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For West Japan Railway Co ADR that is +15.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at West Japan Railway Co ADR grew +16.9 % a year. The price currently implies +15.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into West Japan Railway Co ADR (+15.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.91 %: that much free cash flow West Japan Railway Co ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For West Japan Railway Co ADR it is $17.15 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $19.72. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is West Japan Railway Co ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, WJRYY trades above its calculated fair value: price $19.72, fair value $17.15, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WJRYY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($19.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.15). For West Japan Railway Co ADR the two are $2.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is West Japan Railway Co ADR worth?
The market values West Japan Railway Co ADR at about $9.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $19.72; our models calculate a fair value of $17.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WJRYY?
Our models span a range for West Japan Railway Co ADR: cautious scenario $6.08, base $17.15, optimistic $31.17 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $19.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WJRYY?
West Japan Railway Co ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.15 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 55.0, P/B 1.2, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 7.1.
What is the PEG ratio of WJRYY?
The PEG ratio of West Japan Railway Co ADR is 55.01 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY)?
Balance-sheet figures for West Japan Railway Co ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 1.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WJRYY from its 52-week high?
West Japan Railway Co ADR trades at $19.72, about 11% below its 52-week high of $22.19 and 28% above the low of $15.43 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to West Japan Railway Co ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Canadian National Railway Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is West Japan Railway Co ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $19.72, calculated fair value $17.15 (−13%), Quality Score 56/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WJRYY calculated?
We run West Japan Railway Co ADR through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. West Japan Railway Co ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $19.72. Our model-based fair value is $17.15, about −13% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with West Japan Railway Co ADR right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($6.08 to $31.17). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY) come from?
Earnings per share at West Japan Railway Co ADR grew −5.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −7.2 %, EBIT margin −1.0 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of West Japan Railway Co ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY)?
The market capitalisation of West Japan Railway Co ADR is $9.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of West Japan Railway Co ADR is 0.83 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY)?
Earnings per share at West Japan Railway Co ADR are $1.65 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY)?
The dividend yield of West Japan Railway Co ADR is 3.2% (payout 37.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY)?
The net margin of West Japan Railway Co ADR is 6.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of West Japan Railway Co ADR is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of West Japan Railway Co ADR is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY)?
The operating margin of West Japan Railway Co ADR is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY)?
Revenue at West Japan Railway Co ADR is growing −0.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY)?
Earnings per share at West Japan Railway Co ADR are growing −17.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does West Japan Railway Co (WJRYY) carry?
The net debt of West Japan Railway Co ADR is ¥1.4T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 16.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch West Japan Railway Co ADR in the live analysis
One click puts West Japan Railway Co ADR on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 28,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Oct 22, 2026