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Data-driven stock valuation

West Japan Railway Co ADR (WJRYY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what West Japan Railway Co ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Industrials · US · Market cap $7.4B · ISIN US9534321016

At a glance

WJ West Japan Railway Co ADR logo West Japan Railway Co ADR WJRYY · US
Price$19.42
Fair Value$18.60
Upside−4.2%
Quality55/100

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of $18.60.

As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of West Japan Railway Co ADR is $18.60 per share against a price of $19.42, so the fair value sits 4% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +16.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.9% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·3.76% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (11/15)
!Moderate moat 45/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 28 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $15.94 to $35.68

Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Sep 8, 2026, revised from $18.02 to $18.60 (+3.2%) since Aug 15, 2026. Share price +6.8% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range ($15.94 to $35.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$25.37 $14.30 Fair Value $18.60 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $14.30 – $25.37 · fair‑value band $15.94 – $35.68 · the $19.42 price screens above the $18.60 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

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Analysis

West Japan Railway Co ADR (WJRYY) currently trades at $19.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.60, implying the stock looks roughly 4.4% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $36.49 per share, and 11 of the 20 models we run sit above the $19.42 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $7.56, and 9 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, West Japan Railway Co ADR generated revenue of ¥1.8T at a net margin of 6.9%. Revenue grew 9.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.2%. Net debt stands at ¥1.4T. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026

Scenario range: $15.94 (bear) to $35.68 (bull), the price of $19.42 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −4%, WJRYY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence n/a n/a $5.79 77
Growth DCF n/a n/a $5.15 75
5Y EBITDA Exit $18.92 $44.44 $72.89 72
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence n/a n/a $5.79 77
5Y Revenue Exit $3.16 $16.80 $33.61 66
5Y EBITDA Exit $18.92 $44.44 $72.89 72
5Y P/E Exit $3.86 $18.02 $31.98 66
10Y Revenue Exit n/a $9.80 $23.71 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $8.94 $27.95 $51.34 64
10Y P/E Exit n/a $10.61 $22.56 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $14.60 $31.40 $39.90 66
PEG = 1.0 $4.85 $6.93 $9.01 57
EPV $3.89 $7.56 $10.74 70
Multiples
P/E Multiple $33.81 $45.08 $56.34 63
P/S Multiple $27.37 $36.49 $45.61 58
P/B Multiple $27.37 $36.49 $45.61 55
EV/EBIT $23.11 $37.28 $51.46 64
EV/EBITDA $42.30 $62.87 $83.44 66
EV/Revenue $10.94 $23.94 $36.95 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $9.63 $12.90 $19.26 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF n/a n/a $5.15 75
Rev-Margin DCF $3.16 $16.84 $31.06 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income $17.18 $19.43 $33.19 69
ROIC Compounder $3.89 $7.56 $10.74 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $24.97 $35.67 $46.37 67

Widest divergence: Multiples ($36.49) versus Earnings-Based ($7.56). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 11.3
P/S ratio 0.78 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.72 price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.3
Dividend yield 3.8% payout 42.5%
Net margin 6.9% FY2026
Return on equity 10.2% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 0.2% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) ¥1.8T TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +9.5% 3y avg +11.9%
EPS growth (YoY) −21.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow ¥83.2B FY2026
Net debt ¥1.4T FY2026 · ≈ 16.4 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 32
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 93
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 35
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

West Japan Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the railway operation business in Japan. It operates through five segments: Mobility, Distribution, Real Estate, Travel and Regional Solutions, and Others.

Full company description

West Japan Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the railway operation business in Japan. It operates through five segments: Mobility, Distribution, Real Estate, Travel and Regional Solutions, and Others. The company offers rail passenger transportation services; sells various goods through stores inside the train stations, including convenience stores, restaurants, and souvenir shops; and develops and operates shopping centers and hotels, as well as leases and sells condominiums and other properties. It is also involved in travel arrangement services, such as train reservations, issuance of hotel vouchers, and sale of package tours, as well as tourism promotion; credit cards and electronic money; construction and electrical construction; advertising; department store business; and spatial information consulting. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Kita, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

West Japan Railway Co ADR reported revenue of ¥2.0T in FY2026 versus ¥1.0T in FY2022, a compound +17.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥135B in FY2026.

Growth Quality 85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
$2.0T
Latest YoY
+14.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (27Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in JPY) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−7.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−11.4%
Dividend yield3.8%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −8.8% vs 10Y −4.0%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−27.3% (2021) → 10.7% (2026) · rising
Worst earnings drop324% (2021) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Revenue +17.4%/yr
FY22 ¥1.0T
FY23 ¥1.4T
FY24 ¥1.6T
FY25 ¥1.7T
FY26 ¥2.0T
Net income
FY22 −¥113B
FY23 ¥88.5B
FY24 ¥98.8B
FY25 ¥114B
FY26 ¥135B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) −5.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share −7.2 %

of which total revenue +2.5 % · buybacks/dilution −9.5 %

EBIT margin −1.0 %
Tax rate +1.8 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "West Japan Railway Co ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WJRYY

Peer Group

Railroads · 109 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.16× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 55.01× · Priciest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must West Japan Railway Co ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+11.5 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+16.9 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+4.6 %
FCF yield on price6.08 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.5 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE28 · sector 21
FUTURE48 · sector 20
PAST41 · sector 30
HEALTH42 · sector 90
DIVIDEND75 · sector 45

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $289.62 $141.29 −51%
CSX Corporation CSX $48.99 $12.62 −74%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $91.60 $34.55 −62%
Canadian National Railway Company CNR C$170.58 C$92.68 −46%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $332.96 $114.36 −66%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $297.57 $144.80 −51%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.87 ¥5.65 +16%
MTR Corporation 0066 HK$32.04 HK$17.85 −44%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.98 ¥9.53 +59%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.72 ¥6.22 +32%

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Frequently asked questions

Is West Japan Railway Co ADR (WJRYY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.60 versus a price of $19.42, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of WJRYY?
Our model-based fair value for West Japan Railway Co ADR is $18.60 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $19.42.
What is the quality score of WJRYY?
West Japan Railway Co ADR has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for West Japan Railway Co ADR (WJRYY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.60 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.94, optimistic scenario $35.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the West Japan Railway Co ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.60, about −4% upside versus a price of $19.42 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $15.94, optimistic scenario $35.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of West Japan Railway Co ADR (WJRYY)?
West Japan Railway Co ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.8T (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of WJRYY?
The net profit margin of West Japan Railway Co ADR is about 6.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does West Japan Railway Co ADR pay a dividend?
West Japan Railway Co ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.76% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into West Japan Railway Co ADR (WJRYY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, West Japan Railway Co ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +11.5 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.5 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.9 % per year. As of Sep 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WJRYY use?
Our models discount West Japan Railway Co ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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