Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Advanced Drainage Systems Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $74.79 – $177.26 · fair‑value band $60.88 – $146.15 · the $126.05 price screens above the $106.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets thermoplastic corrugated pipes and related water management products in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Stormwater and Wastewater segments.
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Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets thermoplastic corrugated pipes and related water management products in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Stormwater and Wastewater segments. The company offers single, double, and triple wall corrugated polypropylene and polyethylene pipes; plastic leachfield chambers and systems; EZflow synthetic aggregate bundles; wastewater purification through mechanical aeration wastewater; septic tanks and accessories; combined treatment and dispersal systems, including AeroFin, advanced enviro-septic, enviro-septic, and advanced treatment leachfield; and allied products, including storm retention/detention and septic chambers, polyvinyl chloride drainage structures, fittings, and water quality filters and separators. It also purchases and distributes construction fabrics and other geosynthetic products for soil stabilization, reinforcement, filtration, separation, erosion control, and sub-surface drainage, as well as drainage grates and other products. In addition, the company provides PVC hubs, rubber sleeves, and stainless-steel bands; and channel drains, catch basins, grates, access boxes, and accessories engineered to capture, convey, and disperse stormwater. It offers its products for non-residential, residential, agriculture, and infrastructure applications through a network of distribution centers. Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Hilliard, Ohio.
Stock analysis
Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS) currently trades at $126.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $106.17, implying the stock looks roughly 18.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $109.79 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the $126.05 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $11.69, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $60.88 (bear) to $146.15 (bull), the price of $126.05 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Advanced Drainage Systems Inc reported revenue of $3.1B in FY2026 versus $2.8B in FY2022, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was $426M in FY2026, compounding +12.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $11.6B · P/E ratio 23.1 · P/S ratio 3.23 · EPS (TTM) $5.45 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 14.0% · Return on equity 25.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −16%, WMS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $60.88Fair Value $106.17Bull $146.15
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.25 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10% vs 27%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 23%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Advanced Drainage Systems Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 250 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−22% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)25% · Top 25%
Return on assets11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.83× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Advanced Drainage Systems Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WMS
Frequently asked questions
Is Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $106.17 versus a price of $126.05, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WMS?
Our model-based fair value for Advanced Drainage Systems Inc is $106.17 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $126.05.
What is the quality score of WMS?
Advanced Drainage Systems Inc has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $106.17 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $60.88, optimistic scenario $146.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Advanced Drainage Systems Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $106.17, about −16% upside versus a price of $126.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $60.88, optimistic scenario $146.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS)?
Advanced Drainage Systems Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Advanced Drainage Systems Inc pay a dividend?
Advanced Drainage Systems Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.57% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Advanced Drainage Systems Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +9.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.0 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WMS use?
Our models discount Advanced Drainage Systems Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.26, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Advanced Drainage Systems Inc that is +9.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Advanced Drainage Systems Inc grew +9.0 % a year. The price currently implies +9.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (+9.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.75 %: that much free cash flow Advanced Drainage Systems Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Advanced Drainage Systems Inc it is $106.17 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $126.05. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Advanced Drainage Systems Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, WMS trades above its calculated fair value: price $126.05, fair value $106.17, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WMS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($126.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($106.17). For Advanced Drainage Systems Inc the two are $19.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Advanced Drainage Systems Inc worth?
The market values Advanced Drainage Systems Inc at about $11.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $126.05; our models calculate a fair value of $106.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WMS?
Our models span a range for Advanced Drainage Systems Inc: cautious scenario $60.88, base $106.17, optimistic $146.15 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $126.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WMS?
Advanced Drainage Systems Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.1 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $106.17 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 6.0, P/S 3.8, EV/EBITDA 14.6.
What is the PEG ratio of WMS?
The PEG ratio of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc is 1.38 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 25.1%, debt of 0.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WMS from its 52-week high?
Advanced Drainage Systems Inc trades at $126.05, about 30% below its 52-week high of $178.87 and 16% above the low of $109.09 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $106.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Advanced Drainage Systems Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Advanced Drainage Systems Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $126.05, calculated fair value $106.17 (−16%), Quality Score 57/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WMS calculated?
We run Advanced Drainage Systems Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $106.17, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Advanced Drainage Systems Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $126.05. Our model-based fair value is $106.17, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Advanced Drainage Systems Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($60.88 to $146.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS) come from?
Earnings per share at Advanced Drainage Systems Inc grew +33.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.8 %, EBIT margin +16.8 %, tax rate +3.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS)?
The market capitalisation of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc is $11.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc is 3.23 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS)?
Earnings per share at Advanced Drainage Systems Inc are $5.45 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS)?
The dividend yield of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc is 0.6% (payout 13.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS)?
The net margin of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc is 14.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc is 25.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc is 19.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS)?
The operating margin of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS)?
Revenue at Advanced Drainage Systems Inc is growing +9.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS)?
Earnings per share at Advanced Drainage Systems Inc are growing −58.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS) carry?
The net debt of Advanced Drainage Systems Inc is $1.5B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 18, 2026