Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc (WMS) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $11.6B
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc
WMS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $100.56 to $110.45 (+9.8%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −0.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 26% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($61.61 to $146.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $74.79 – $177.26 · fair‑value band $61.61 – $146.15 · the $148.45 price screens above the $110.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc (WMS) currently trades at $148.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $110.45, implying the stock looks roughly 25.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc generated revenue of $3.1B at a net margin of 14.0%. Revenue grew 9.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.1%. Net debt stands at $1.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $61.61 (bear case) to $146.15 (bull case); at $148.45, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at -26%, WMS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($106.47) versus Dividend Discount ($11.69). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets thermoplastic corrugated pipes and related water management products in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Stormwater and Wastewater segments.
Full company description
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets thermoplastic corrugated pipes and related water management products in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Stormwater and Wastewater segments. The company offers single, double, and triple wall corrugated polypropylene and polyethylene pipes; plastic leachfield chambers and systems; EZflow synthetic aggregate bundles; wastewater purification through mechanical aeration wastewater; septic tanks and accessories; combined treatment and dispersal systems, including AeroFin, advanced enviro-septic, enviro-septic, and advanced treatment leachfield; and allied products, including storm retention/detention and septic chambers, polyvinyl chloride drainage structures, fittings, and water quality filters and separators. It also purchases and distributes construction fabrics and other geosynthetic products for soil stabilization, reinforcement, filtration, separation, erosion control, and sub-surface drainage, as well as drainage grates and other products. In addition, the company provides PVC hubs, rubber sleeves, and stainless-steel bands; and channel drains, catch basins, grates, access boxes, and accessories engineered to capture, convey, and disperse stormwater. It offers its products for non-residential, residential, agriculture, and infrastructure applications through a network of distribution centers. Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Hilliard, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc reported revenue of $3.1B in FY2026 versus $2.8B in FY2022, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was $426M in FY2026, compounding +12.0%/yr from FY2022.
WMS screens 26% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- J vs. WMS: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?
- Advanced Drainage Systems Shareholders Approve Board, Auditor and Pay at Annual Meeting
- Advanced Drainage Systems to Announce First Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Results on August 6, 2026
Peer Group
Building Products & Equipment · 245 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trane Technologies plc TT | $469.98 | $212.34 | -55% |
| Johnson Controls International plc JCI | $142.81 | $45.65 | -68% |
| Carrier Global Corporation CARR | $68.61 | $17.35 | -75% |
| Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO | €76.62 | €101.60 | +33% |
| Geberit AG GEBN | CHF 523.20 | CHF 307.66 | -41% |
| Lennox International Inc LII | $543.93 | $363.09 | -33% |
| Kingspan Group KRX | €87.30 | €70.76 | -19% |
| Masco Corporation MAS | $78.04 | $54.36 | -30% |
| PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC | 1,420 IDR | 179.76 IDR | -87% |
| NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB | kr 36.03 | kr 25.37 | -30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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