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Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Wynn Macau, Limited $0.87, price $0.66, upside +31.8%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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WM
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Wynn Macau, Limited
WYNMF · USUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value $0.8700 · Undervalued (+31.8%)
!Quality 57/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y −4.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
✓9.0% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Moderate moat 46/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.3574 – $2.31 · fair‑value band $0.6300 – $1.09 · the $0.6600 price screens below the $0.8700 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Wynn Macau, Limited owns, develops, and operates integrated destination casino resorts in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through two segments, Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau.
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Wynn Macau, Limited owns, develops, and operates integrated destination casino resorts in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through two segments, Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau. It offers table games and slot machines or similar gaming devices; 24-hour gaming services; a range of games comprising private gaming salons and sky casinos; a hotel with rooms, suites, and villas; operates food and beverage outlets; a food hall, which includes a variety of stand-alone restaurants and other food offerings; brand-name retail shopping arenas; recreation and leisure facilities, including a cable car ride through SkyCab, health club, spa, salon, and pool; and a meeting and convention spaces. The company also provides poker pit games and public entertainment attractions, including a performance lake and rotunda show featuring a Chinese zodiac-inspired ceiling along with gold tree of prosperity. In addition, it is involved in the development, design, and preconstruction activities and offers technical consultancy, administrative, and management and support services. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Macau. Wynn Macau, Limited operates as a subsidiary of WM Cayman Holdings Limited I.
Stock analysis
Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF) currently trades at $0.6600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.8700, implying the stock looks roughly 24.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $1.41 per share, and 15 of the 22 models we run sit above the $0.6600 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.4600, and 7 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $0.6300 (bear) to $1.09 (bull), the price of $0.6600 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Wynn Macau, Limited reported revenue of HK$16.2B in FY2025 versus HK$11.7B in FY2021, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.6B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.5B · P/E ratio 16.5 · P/S ratio 1.66 · EPS (TTM) $0.0400 · Dividend yield 9.0% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 16.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at 32%, WYNMF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.6300
Fair Value $0.8700
Bull $1.09
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$1.56
$3.33
$6.28
76
Growth DCF
$1.54
$3.16
$5.74
75
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.9200
$2.06
$3.44
72
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$1.56
$3.33
$6.28
76
Owner Earnings
$0.5900
$1.65
$3.40
70
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.1900
$0.5700
$1.00
68
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.9200
$2.06
$3.44
72
5Y P/E Exit
$0.3800
$0.9400
$1.54
68
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.6400
$1.14
$1.80
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$1.12
$2.21
$3.78
66
10Y P/E Exit
$0.7700
$1.41
$2.24
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.2700
$1.22
$1.67
64
Lynch FV
$0.3200
$0.4600
$0.5900
61
PEG = 1.0
$0.3200
$0.4600
$0.5900
57
EPV
$0.1000
$0.2400
$0.3700
69
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.4100
$0.8200
$1.25
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.4100
$0.7100
$0.8700
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.6500
$0.8700
$1.09
63
P/S Multiple
$0.3500
$0.4700
$0.5900
58
EV/EBIT
$0.6900
$1.20
$1.70
64
EV/EBITDA
$0.7300
$1.25
$1.77
65
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$1.54
$3.16
$5.74
75
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.1900
$0.5900
$1.08
68
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder
$0.2100
$0.5500
$0.9700
67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.5300
$0.7600
$0.9800
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
57/100
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Profitability
35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
91
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
37
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
32
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
91
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.5%
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−11.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−20.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−20.4% vs −3.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−71% → 28%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in HKD, Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.1% a year for the price and +15.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+93.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.7%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Gambling
Similar stocks
10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS | $38.78 | $55.26 | +42% |
| Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 | HK$31.70 | HK$46.74 | +47% |
| Sands China Ltd 1928 | HK$11.91 | HK$18.87 | +58% |
| Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN | $81.12 | $147.69 | +82% |
| MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM | $30.47 | $18.04 | −41% |
| Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR | $29.59 | $80.89 | +173% |
| Genting Singapore Limited G13 | 0.6150 SGD | 0.5600 SGD | −9% |
| Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR | $50.76 | $31.15 | −39% |
| Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD | $71.23 | $130.75 | +84% |
| Vail Resorts, Inc MTN | $136.11 | $152.57 | +12% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.8700 versus a price of $0.6600, about +32% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of WYNMF?
Our model-based fair value for Wynn Macau, Limited is $0.8700 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.6600.
What is the quality score of WYNMF?
Wynn Macau, Limited has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.8700 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.6300, optimistic scenario $1.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Wynn Macau, Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.8700, about +32% upside versus a price of $0.6600 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.6300, optimistic scenario $1.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF)?
Wynn Macau, Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$29.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Wynn Macau, Limited pay a dividend?
Wynn Macau, Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Wynn Macau, Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -2.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WYNMF use?
Our models discount Wynn Macau, Limited at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Wynn Macau, Limited that is -2.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Wynn Macau, Limited grew +16.3 % a year. The price currently implies -2.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Wynn Macau, Limited (-2.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.05 %: that much free cash flow Wynn Macau, Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Wynn Macau, Limited it is $0.8700 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.6600. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Wynn Macau, Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, WYNMF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.6600, fair value $0.8700, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WYNMF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.6600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.8700). For Wynn Macau, Limited the two are $0.2100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Wynn Macau, Limited worth?
The market values Wynn Macau, Limited at about $3.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.6600; our models calculate a fair value of $0.8700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WYNMF?
Our models span a range for Wynn Macau, Limited: cautious scenario $0.6300, base $0.8700, optimistic $1.09 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.6600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is WYNMF from its 52-week high?
Wynn Macau, Limited trades at $0.6600, about 28% below its 52-week high of $0.9130 and 5% above the low of $0.6300 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.8700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Wynn Macau, Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, Wynn Resorts, Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Wynn Macau, Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.6600, calculated fair value $0.8700 (+32%), Quality Score 57/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WYNMF calculated?
We run Wynn Macau, Limited through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.8700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Wynn Macau, Limited currently trades 24 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.6600. Our model-based fair value is $0.8700, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Wynn Macau, Limited right now?
Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF) come from?
Earnings per share at Wynn Macau, Limited grew −6.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.8 %, EBIT margin +1.4 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Wynn Macau, Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF)?
The market capitalisation of Wynn Macau, Limited is $3.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Wynn Macau, Limited is 16.5. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Wynn Macau, Limited is 1.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF)?
Earnings per share at Wynn Macau, Limited are $0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF)?
The dividend yield of Wynn Macau, Limited is 9.0% (payout 149%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF)?
The net margin of Wynn Macau, Limited is 10.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Wynn Macau, Limited is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF)?
The operating margin of Wynn Macau, Limited is 16.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF)?
Revenue at Wynn Macau, Limited is growing +9.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +42.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF)?
Earnings per share at Wynn Macau, Limited are growing −1.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Wynn Macau, Limited (WYNMF) carry?
The net debt of Wynn Macau, Limited is HK$38.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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