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XP Factory PLC (XPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of XP Factory PLC £0.07, price £0.18, upside -61.1%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Cyclical · GB · ISIN GB00BDB79J29

XF Thin data Sep 23, 2026

XP Factory PLC

XPF · LSE

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value £0.0700 · Strongly overvalued (−61%)
!Quality 30/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +85.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.5% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/11)
!Narrow moat 18/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

£0.3700 £0.0950 Fair Value £0.0700 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £0.0950 – £0.3700 · fair‑value band £0.0600 – £0.0800 · the £0.1800 price screens above the £0.0700 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

XP Factory Plc engages in the leisure businesses in the United Kingdom, Europe, and internationally.

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XP Factory Plc engages in the leisure businesses in the United Kingdom, Europe, and internationally. It engages in operating and developing a network of franchised, licensed, and owner-operated branches and offsite escape-the-room type games under the Escape Hunt brand name; and a network of owner-operated and franchised cocktail bar venues under the Boom Battle Bar brand name. The company also offers various games, such as augmented reality darts, Bavarian axe throwing, crazier golf, shuffleboard, and others. In addition, it is involved in the game designing and IP licensing businesses. The company was formerly known as Escape Hunt plc and changed its name to XP Factory Plc in December 2021. XP Factory Plc was incorporated in 2016 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

XP Factory PLC (XPF) currently trades at £0.1800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.0700, implying the stock looks roughly 157.1% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £0.1600 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the £0.1800 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at £0.0800, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: £0.0600 (bear) to £0.0800 (bull), the price of £0.1800 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

XP Factory PLC reported revenue of £57.8M in FY2025 versus £2.7M in FY2020, a compound +85.1%/yr. Reported net income was −£1.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 31.5M GBX · P/S ratio 0.54 · EPS (TTM) £−0.0100 · Net margin −2.2% · Return on equity −5.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.4% · Operating margin 0.0% · Revenue (TTM) £61.1M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at −61%, XPF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear £0.0600 Fair Value £0.0700 Bull £0.0800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV £0.0600 £0.0800 £0.0900 74
ROIC Compounder £0.0600 £0.0800 £0.0900 70
EV/EBITDA £0.4100 £0.5500 £0.7000 67
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV £0.0600 £0.0800 £0.0900 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT £0.1200 £0.1600 £0.2100 66
EV/EBITDA £0.4100 £0.5500 £0.7000 67
EV/Revenue £0.0700 £0.1100 £0.1500 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £0.0700 £0.0900 £0.1400 53
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder £0.0600 £0.0800 £0.0900 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 73
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 23
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 43
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 67
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 73
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 11
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 36/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+85.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+68.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−240.8% (2020) → 3.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

XPF screens 157% overvalued. Compare with ANTA Sports Products Limited →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 190 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −61% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 13% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.20× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.75× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.68× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 6.1× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)67 · sector 14
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)90 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 57

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 HK$71.80 HK$166.82 +132%
Pop Mart International Group 9992 HK$153.50 HK$211.79 +38%
Amer Sports, Inc AS $27.65 $19.17 −31%
Hasbro, Inc HAS $86.52 $85.71 −1%
Life Time Group LTH $38.19 $15.61 −59%
Acushnet Holdings GOLF $83.20 $42.95 −48%
Ninebot Limited 689009 ¥37.48 ¥108.20 +189%
Li Ning Company 2331 HK$12.38 HK$29.57 +139%
Benefit Systems S.A BFT 5,070 PLN 5,577 PLN +10%
Mattel, Inc MAT $13.21 $21.24 +61%

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XP Factory PLC · Fair Value
£0.0700 −157%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "XP Factory PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XPF

Frequently asked questions

Is XP Factory PLC (XPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.0700 versus a price of £0.1800, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XPF?
Our model-based fair value for XP Factory PLC is £0.0700 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £0.1800.
What is the quality score of XPF?
XP Factory PLC has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for XP Factory PLC (XPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.0700 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.0600, optimistic scenario £0.0800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the XP Factory PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.0700, about −61% upside versus a price of £0.1800 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £0.0600, optimistic scenario £0.0800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of XP Factory PLC (XPF)?
XP Factory PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £61.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of XP Factory PLC (XPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For XP Factory PLC it is £0.0700 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of £0.1800. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is XP Factory PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, XPF trades above its calculated fair value: price £0.1800, fair value £0.0700, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£0.1800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.0700). For XP Factory PLC the two are £0.1100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is XP Factory PLC worth?
The market values XP Factory PLC at about 31.5M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is £0.1800; our models calculate a fair value of £0.0700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XPF?
Our models span a range for XP Factory PLC: cautious scenario £0.0600, base £0.0700, optimistic £0.0800 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price £0.1800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of XP Factory PLC (XPF)?
Balance-sheet figures for XP Factory PLC (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −5.1%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XPF from its 52-week high?
XP Factory PLC trades at £0.1800, about 13% below its 52-week high of £0.2080 and 76% above the low of £0.1025 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.0700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to XP Factory PLC?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value ANTA Sports Products Limited, Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is XP Factory PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price £0.1800, calculated fair value £0.0700 (−61%), Quality Score 30/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XPF calculated?
We run XP Factory PLC through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £0.0700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. XP Factory PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of XP Factory PLC (XPF)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was £0.1800. Our model-based fair value is £0.0700, about −61% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with XP Factory PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£0.0800). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of XP Factory PLC

How large is the market capitalisation of XP Factory PLC (XPF)?
The market capitalisation of XP Factory PLC is 31.5M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of XP Factory PLC (XPF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of XP Factory PLC is 0.54 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of XP Factory PLC (XPF)?
Earnings per share at XP Factory PLC are £−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of XP Factory PLC (XPF)?
The net margin of XP Factory PLC is −2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of XP Factory PLC (XPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of XP Factory PLC is −5.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of XP Factory PLC (XPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of XP Factory PLC is −11.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of XP Factory PLC (XPF)?
The operating margin of XP Factory PLC is 0.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at XP Factory PLC (XPF)?
Revenue at XP Factory PLC is growing +13.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +102%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at XP Factory PLC (XPF)?
Earnings per share at XP Factory PLC are growing −24.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does XP Factory PLC (XPF) generate?
The free cash flow of XP Factory PLC is −55.0K GBX (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does XP Factory PLC (XPF) carry?
The net debt of XP Factory PLC is 42.1M GBX (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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