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XP Factory Plc (XPF) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 32.9M GBX

XF XP Factory Plc XPF · LSE
Price£0.1850
Fair Value£0.3400
Upside+83.8%
Quality30/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -1.5% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Trails peers (4/11)
Narrow moat 18/100
Evidence: Low Range £0.1900 – £0.4800 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026

From 6 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Share price +2.7% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 84% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (30/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (£0.1900). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • A fairly wide model range (£0.1900 to £0.4800) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£0.4313 £0.0913 Fair Value £0.3400 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £0.0913 – £0.4313 · fair‑value band £0.1900 – £0.4800 · the £0.1850 price screens below the £0.3400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

XP Factory Plc (XPF) currently trades at £0.1850, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.3400, implying the stock looks roughly 83.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, XP Factory Plc generated revenue of £61.1M at a net margin of -1.5%. Revenue grew 13.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.1%. Net debt stands at £42.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £0.1900 (bear case) to £0.4800 (bull case); at £0.1850, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 84%, XPF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
ROIC Compounder £0.0400 £0.0500 £0.0600 72
EPV £0.0400 £0.0500 £0.0600 59
EV/EBITDA £0.4100 £0.5500 £0.7000 54
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV £0.0400 £0.0500 £0.0600 59
Multiples
EV/EBIT £0.1200 £0.1600 £0.2100 53
EV/EBITDA £0.4100 £0.5500 £0.7000 54
EV/Revenue £0.0700 £0.1100 £0.1500 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £0.0700 £0.0900 £0.1400 50
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder £0.0400 £0.0500 £0.0600 72

Widest divergence: Multiples (£0.1600) versus Earnings-Based (£0.0500). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 61.1M GBX
Revenue growth (YoY) +13.3%
Net margin -1.5%
Return on equity -5.1%
Free cash flow −55.0K GBX FY2025
Operating margin 0.0%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) £-0.0100
EPS growth (YoY) -24.2%
Net debt 42.1M GBX FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 73
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 23
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 43
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 51
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 87
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 92
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 11
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

XP Factory Plc engages in the leisure businesses in the United Kingdom, Europe, and internationally. It engages in operating and developing a network of franchised, licensed, and owner-operated branches and offsite escape-the-room type games under the Escape Hunt brand name; and a network of owner-operated and franchised cocktail bar venues under the Boom …

Full company description

XP Factory Plc engages in the leisure businesses in the United Kingdom, Europe, and internationally. It engages in operating and developing a network of franchised, licensed, and owner-operated branches and offsite escape-the-room type games under the Escape Hunt brand name; and a network of owner-operated and franchised cocktail bar venues under the Boom Battle Bar brand name. The company also offers various games, such as augmented reality darts, Bavarian axe throwing, crazier golf, shuffleboard, and others. In addition, it is involved in the game designing and IP licensing businesses. The company was formerly known as Escape Hunt plc and changed its name to XP Factory Plc in December 2021. XP Factory Plc was incorporated in 2016 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2020 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

XP Factory Plc reported revenue of £57.8M in FY2025 versus £2.7M in FY2020, a compound +85.1%/yr. Reported net income was −£1.3M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 36/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
£57.8M
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+36.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+85.1%
Avg. growth/yr (8Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+68.9%
Revenue +85.1%/yr
FY20 £2.7M
FY21 £7.0M
FY22 £22.8M
FY23 £45.9M
FY25 £57.8M
Net income
FY20 −£6.6M
FY21 −£874K
FY22 −£994K
FY23 −£336K
FY25 −£1.3M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "XP Factory Plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XPF

Peer Group

Leisure · 190 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +84% · Top 25%
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -0% · Below median
Revenue growth 13% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.20× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.87× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.73× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 6.5× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 14
FUTURE 67 · sector 18
PAST 0 · sector 19
HEALTH 90 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 51

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 HK$74.15 HK$119.29 +61%
Pop Mart International Group 9992 HK$160.20 HK$227.30 +42%
Amer Sports, Inc AS $36.44 $16.16 -56%
Hasbro, Inc HAS $81.55 $83.38 +2%
Life Time Group LTH $42.15 $16.15 -62%
Acushnet Holdings GOLF $114.78 $37.79 -67%
Li Ning Company 2331 HK$14.80 HK$29.26 +98%
Benefit Systems S.A BFT 5,255 PLN 3,714 PLN -29%
Ninebot Limited 689009 ¥37.82 ¥39.17 +4%
Asmodee Group ASMDEEB kr 145.70 kr 41.90 -71%

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Frequently asked questions

Is XP Factory Plc (XPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.3400 versus a price of £0.1850, about +84% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of XPF?
Our model-based fair value for XP Factory Plc is £0.3400 (as of Jul 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is £0.1850.
What is the quality score of XPF?
XP Factory Plc has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of XP Factory Plc (XPF)?
XP Factory Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £61.1M (latest available figure, as of Jul 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of XPF?
The net profit margin of XP Factory Plc is about -1.5%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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