XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of XRF Scientific Ltd stock A$1.34, price A$2.06, that is 35.0% below the price, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.4297 – A$2.29 · fair‑value band A$0.7000 – A$1.90 · the A$2.06 price screens above the A$1.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
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XRF Scientific Limited manufactures and markets precious metal products, specialized chemicals, and instruments for the scientific, analytical, construction material, and mining industries in Australia, Canada, and Europe.
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It operates through Capital Equipment, Precious Metals, and Consumables segments. The Capital Equipment segment manufactures sample preparation products and analytical instruments. The Precious Metals segment manufactures products for the laboratory and industrial platinum alloy markets.
The Consumables segment manufactures chemicals and other supplies for analytical laboratories. XRF Scientific Limited was founded in 1972 and is based in Osborne Park, Australia.
Stock analysis
XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF) currently trades at A$2.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.34, 35% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of A$1.36 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$2.06 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.2000, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$0.7000 (bear) to A$1.90 (bull), the price of A$2.06 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
XRF Scientific Ltd reported revenue of A$64.1M in FY2026 versus A$40.0M in FY2022, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$10.5M in FY2026, compounding +14.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$295M (≈ $203M) Micro · P/E ratio 28.1 · P/S ratio 4.58 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0733 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 16.3% · Return on equity 16.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at −35%, XRF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.7000Fair Value A$1.34BullA$1.90
Price A$2.06 · Downside -35.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0090 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.7% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 13.9% / 20.3%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 27%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 305 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−35.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets13.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)16.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)23.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
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Is XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.34 versus a price of A$2.06, about 35% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XRF?
Our model-based fair value for XRF Scientific Ltd is A$1.34 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$2.06.
What is the quality score of XRF?
XRF Scientific Ltd has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.34 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.7000, optimistic scenario A$1.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the XRF Scientific Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.34, about 35% lower versus a price of A$2.06 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.7000, optimistic scenario A$1.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF)?
XRF Scientific Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$64.4M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does XRF Scientific Ltd pay a dividend?
XRF Scientific Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.18% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
XRF Scientific Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.045 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 10, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2011. The payout ratio is 64.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.49 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, XRF Scientific Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +21.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.4 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XRF use?
Our models discount XRF Scientific Ltd at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.70, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For XRF Scientific Ltd that is +21.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at XRF Scientific Ltd grew +15.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +21.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into XRF Scientific Ltd (+21.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.29 %: that much free cash flow XRF Scientific Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For XRF Scientific Ltd it is A$1.34 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of A$2.06. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is XRF Scientific Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, XRF trades above its calculated fair value: price A$2.06, fair value A$1.34, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$2.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.34). For XRF Scientific Ltd the two are A$0.7200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is XRF Scientific Ltd worth?
The market values XRF Scientific Ltd at about A$295M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is A$2.06; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XRF?
Our models span a range for XRF Scientific Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.7000, base A$1.34, optimistic A$1.90 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price A$2.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of XRF?
XRF Scientific Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.1 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.34 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 20.5. Other multiples: P/B 4.4, P/S 4.6, EV/EBITDA 17.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF)?
Balance-sheet figures for XRF Scientific Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 16.6%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XRF from its 52-week high?
XRF Scientific Ltd trades at A$2.06, about 6% below its 52-week high of A$2.19 and 30% above the low of A$1.59 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to XRF Scientific Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, Swire Pacific Limited, SGH Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is XRF Scientific Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price A$2.06, calculated fair value A$1.34 (−35%), Quality Score 70/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XRF calculated?
We run XRF Scientific Ltd through 13 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$1.34 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. XRF Scientific Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$2.06. Our model-based fair value is A$1.34, about 35% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with XRF Scientific Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$1.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (A$0.7000 to A$1.90). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (70/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF) come from?
Earnings per share at XRF Scientific Ltd grew +21.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.9 %, EBIT margin +9.4 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of XRF Scientific Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF)?
The market capitalisation of XRF Scientific Ltd is A$295M (≈ $203M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of XRF Scientific Ltd is 4.58 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF)?
Earnings per share at XRF Scientific Ltd are A$0.0733 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF)?
The dividend yield of XRF Scientific Ltd is 2.2% (payout 61.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF)?
The net margin of XRF Scientific Ltd is 16.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of XRF Scientific Ltd is 16.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of XRF Scientific Ltd is 20.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF)?
The operating margin of XRF Scientific Ltd is 23.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF)?
Revenue at XRF Scientific Ltd is growing +7.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF)?
Earnings per share at XRF Scientific Ltd are growing −5.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does XRF Scientific Ltd (XRF) hold?
XRF Scientific Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$7.1M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026